气候变化对天津市不同节能水平建筑制冷采暖能耗的影响

利用天津市地面气象观测站1961—2017年逐小时观测资料,通过TRNSYS软件,对不同节能水平办公建筑供热和制冷能耗,以及居住建筑供热能耗进行动态模拟,定量评估了气候变化对天津市不同节能水平建筑能耗的影响。结果表明：在供暖期和制冷期,温度均呈现显著上升的趋势,而太阳辐射则呈现下降的趋势,受其影响,1961—2017年办公和居住建筑供热能耗呈现显著下降的趋势,制冷能耗呈现微弱的上升趋势,但气候变化对供热能耗的影响要明显强于制冷能耗;随着建筑节能水平的提升,供热和制冷能耗均有一定程度的下降,其中供热能耗的降幅尤为明显,四步节能居住建筑相比于一步到三步节能居住建筑,供热能耗分别下降了53.56%、50.13%和21.25%。对新建建筑及既有建筑的节能改造,应充分考虑不同节能水平对建筑能耗的影响,结合实际需求酌情进行升级改造。除此之外,建筑节能水平的提升,会使其供热和制冷能耗变化量随温度的上升而减小,说明其对气候变化的敏感性在逐渐减弱。因此,提高建筑节能水平,可以更好的应对气候变化,保证其在未来的使用中耗能更低。     

Tele-connecting local consumption to global land use

Globalization increases the interconnectedness of people and places around the world. In a connected world, goods and services consumed in one country are often produced in other countries and exchanged via international trade. Thus, local consumption is increasingly met by global supply chains oftentimes involving large geographical distances and leading to global environmental change. In this study, we connect local consumption to global land use through tracking global commodity and value chains via international trade flows. Using a global multiregional input–output model with sectoral detail allows for the accounting of land use attributed to “unusual” sectors – from a land use perspective – including services, machinery and equipment, and construction. Our results show how developed countries consume a large amount of goods and services from both domestic and international markets, and thus impose pressure not only on their domestic land resources, but also displace land in other countries, thus displacing other uses. For example, 33% of total U.S. land use for consumption purposes is displaced from other countries. This ratio becomes much larger for the EU (more than 50%) and Japan (92%). Our analysis shows that 47% of Brazilian and 88% of Argentinean cropland is used for consumption purposes outside of their territories, mainly in EU countries and China. In addition, consumers in rich countries tend to displace land by consuming non-agricultural products, such as services, clothing and household appliances, which account for more than 50% of their total land displacement. By contrast, for developing economies, such as African countries, the share of land use for non-agricultural products is much lower, with an average of 7%. The emerging economies and population giants, China and India, are likely to further increase their appetite for land from other countries, such as Africa, Russia and Latin America, to satisfy their own land needs driven by their fast economic growth and the needs and lifestyles of their growing populations.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Boundary Control and Legal Priniciples . Curtis M. Brown , Walter G. Robillard and Donald A. Wilson . Lost Initiatives: Canada's Forest Industries, Forest Policy, and Forest Conservation . R. Peter Gillis and Thomas R. Roach . The Navajo Atlas: Resources, People, and History of the Dine Bikeyah . James M. Goodman . The City and the Sign . M. Gottdiener AND Alexandros Ph . Lagopoulos , EDS. The Comfortable House: North American Suburban Architecture 1890–1930 . Alan Gowans . Arabic-Islamic Cities. Building and Planning Principles . Besim Salim Hakim . Contemporary Climatology . Ann Henderson -Sellers and Peter J. Robinson . A Trace of Desert Waters . Samuel G. Houghton . Geography, Resources and Environment. Vol. 1: Selected Writings of Gilbert F. White. Vol. 2: Themes from the Work of Gilbert F. White . Robert W. Kates AND Ian Burton , ED. Spatial Dimensions of Unemployment and Underemployment (A Case Study of Rural Punjab) . Gopal Krishan . Maps of the Holy Land: Cartobibliography of Printed Maps, 1475–1900 . Compiled by Eran Laor , assisted by Shoshana Klein . The Geography of Third World Cities . Stella Lowder . A Perspective on U.S. Farm Problems and Agricultural Policy . Lance Mc Kinzie , Timothy G. Baker AND Wallace E. Tyner . Soil Erosion and Its Control. R.P.C . Morgan , ED Geopolitics . Patrick O'Sullivan . Landscape, Meanings and Values . Edmund C. Penning -Rowsell AND David Lowenthal , EDS.     

海底热流长期观测系统研制进展

浅海和俯冲海沟等海域,不仅是矿产和油气资源主潜力区,也是构造地震频发区,其浅表热流和深部温度信息对于了解板块俯冲和岩浆活动等过程至关重要.这些区域浅层地温场和热流场受到底水温度波动(BTV)强烈扰动,其背景热流需由长期观测来获取.在全面分析了国内外海底热流长期观测技术特点后,我们提出了系缆式海底热流长期观测方案,201...     

中国原油进口风险度以及对国内不同区域的影响分析

1993年中国开始从原油输出国变为原油输入国,到2010年,中国的原油进口依赖度高达53%。原油进口来源国的社会经济稳定性、原油运输线路的安全性影响到中国原油进口的安全性。本文根据ITIRI的综合国际贸易投资风险指数和原油运输线路的安全性,设计了中国从其主要原油进口来源国进口原油的风险指数。然后分析了中国各省级行政区对原油进口消费的依赖度,中国六个大区石化工业和八个石油化工基地对进口原油的依赖程度。从而分析了它们对进口原油风险的敏感度。本研究的结论是:第一,中国重要的原油进口来源国比较集中,且集中在社会经济不十分稳定的国家。第二,原油进口风险对沿海地区经济的影响远高于对内陆地区的影响。第三,沪宁杭、琼粤闽和长江中游石化基地是受原油进口风险影响最大的三个基地。根据这些结论,本文提出两方面建议:第一,建议中国原油进口来源与运输方式尽量多元化,以规避风险。第二,中国原油战略储备基地应考虑对原油进口风险敏感度大的地区。     

资源型区域碳排放影响因素分析——以山西省为例

碳排放问题是应对气候变化的主要问题,更是困扰资源型区域改革与可持续发展的关键性问题。以山西省为例,采用LMDI分解方法,将碳排放分解为5种影响因素,对山西省碳排放趋势和变化、影响因素做了深入探讨。结果表明:1)山西省未来碳排放增速减缓,排放量将持续增加,生态环境压力进一步加大;2)能源结构效应为负向影响,虽效应值较小,但潜力巨大。而人口规模正向效应值缓慢变大需要关注;3)在产业结构效应方面,工业、交通运输仓储邮政业及批发零售住宿餐饮业部门产业效应为正效应,且有逐年增大的趋势。表明第二产业和第三产业内部结构不合理,产业结构优化有待提高。     

我国城乡居民消费差异对CO2的影响分析

采用相关年度数据,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术,详细分析了我国城乡居民消费现状,并探究了我国城乡居民消费差异对CO2排放的影响。结果表明,我国城镇居民的消费结构已由生存型消费向发展享受型转变,但农村居民仍旧停留在以"吃穿用"为主的传统消费阶段,这使得城乡居民消费水平的提高对CO2排放存在巨大差异。据测算,城镇居民消费水平的提高对CO2排放的影响几乎是农村居民消费水平提高对其影响的10倍。鉴于此,我国实现节能减排的目标,不仅需要改变生产方式,更需要转变居民消费理念、调整消费结构、引导居民合理消费,使居民消费行为由高能耗消费向低能耗消费转变。     

基于耦合模型的中国能源生产与消费预测及其环境响应(英文)

The paper presents the prediction of total energy production and consumption in all provinces and autonomous regions as well as determination of the variation of gravity center of the energy production, consumption and total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue of China via the energy and environmental quality data from 1978 to 2009 in China by use of GM(1,1) model and gravity center model, based on which the paper also analyzes the dynamic variation in regional difference in energy production, consumption and environmental quality and their relationship. The results are shown as follows. 1) The gravity center of energy production is gradually moving southwestward and the entire movement track approxi-mates to linear variation, indicating that the difference of energy production between the east and west, south and north is narrowing to a certain extent, with the difference between the east and the west narrowing faster than that between the south and the north. 2) The gravity center of energy consumption is moving southwestward with perceptible fluctuation, of which the gravity center position from 2000 to 2005 was relatively stable, with slight annual position variation, indicating that the growth rates of all provinces and autonomous regions are basically the same. 3) The gravity center of the total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue is characterized by fluctuation in longitude and latitude to a certain degree. But, it shows a southwestward trend on the whole. 4) There are common ground and discrepancy in the variation track of the gravity center of the energy production & consumption of China, and the comparative analysis of the gravity center of them and that of total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue shows that the environmental quality level is closely associated with the energy production and consumption (especially the energy consumption), indicating that the environment cost in economy of energy is higher in China.     

基于DMSP/OLS稳定夜间灯光数据的中国1995-2008年电力消费量时空动态研究(英文)

Electric power consumption (EPC) is one of the basic indices for evaluating electric power use. Obtaining timely and accurate data on the spatiotemporal dynamics of EPC is crucial for understanding and practical deployment of electric power resources. In this study, an EPC model was developed using stable nighttime lights time-series data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS). The model was used to reconstruct the spatial patterns of EPC in Chinese Mainland at the county level from 1995 to 2008. In addition, the spatiotemporal dynamics of EPC were analyzed, and the fol-lowing conclusions were drawn. (1) The EPC model reliably represented the spatiotemporal dynamics of EPC in Chinese Mainland with approximately 70% accuracy. (2) The EPC in most regions of Chinese Mainland was at low to moderate levels, with marked temporal and spatial variations; of high-level EPC, 58.26% was concentrated in eastern China. Six urban agglomerations (Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou region, Pearl River Delta, Shandong Peninsula, middle-south of Liaoning Province, and Sichuan Basin) accounted for 10.69% of the total area of Chinese Mainland but consumed 39.23% of the electricity. (3) The EPC of most regions in Chinese Mainland increased from 1995 to 2008, and 64% of the mainland area showed a significant increase in EPC. Moderate increases in EPC were found in 61.62% of eastern China and 80.65% of central China from 1995 to 2008, whereas 75.69% of western China showed no significant increase in EPC. Meanwhile, 77.27%, 89.35%, and 66.72% of the Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou region, Pearl River Delta, and Shandong Peninsula, respectively, showed high-speed increases in EPC. Moderate increases in EPC occurred in 71.12% and 72.13% of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region and middle-south of Liaoning Province, respectively, while no significant increase occurred in 56.34% of the Sichuan Basin.     

京、津、冀地区的碳排放趋势估计

通过多种方法相结合,估计了京、津、冀地区2009-2050年的能源碳排放量、水泥工艺碳排放量和森林碳汇量,计算了区域总的碳排放量和净碳排放量。结果表明:1)京、津、冀地区碳排放量都呈现先升后降的Kuznets趋势,森林年碳汇量对碳排放降低影响不明显;2)在自由排放条件下,北京、天津均在2030年前达到碳排放高峰期,河北省及整个京津冀地区的碳排放高峰将延迟到2039年;3)在2050年前,北京、天津年碳汇量将有所降低,河北年碳汇量则上升。