走向伟大复兴的中国地缘战略：国家周边论

伴随批判地缘政治学的兴起,围绕古典地缘战略理论的争论一度成为学术研究的焦点,而“一带一路”倡议的提出更是激起有关“一带一路”是否是中国当前全球地缘战略的讨论。2019年新冠疫情叠加中美大脱钩使得中国适时调整和制定符合当前整体地缘环境态势的地缘战略迫在眉睫,这关系到“两个一百年”目标和民族复兴能否实现。本文借鉴哲学中的主体间性概念重新解读了古典的地缘战略理论。在归纳总结古典地缘战略理论所具有的固有特征后,反驳了“一带一路”倡议为中国地缘战略的观点。借用古典地缘战略隐含的构建方式,在分析全球地缘环境、中美地缘关系和中国地缘环境后,提出了到21世纪中叶前中国的地缘战略——国家周边论。但是,我们应该承认,无论对中国还是对美国而言,继续围绕中国周边地区的对抗甚至全球尺度的冲突对于双方甚至全球都是不利的。中美必须走出过去历史长河中形成的强国必霸的主体间性的共识,在对话、交流的基础上,实现中美互动实践的良性循环,以此结束当今世界的种种冲突,走向和平发展,构建人类命运共同体。     

历史背景认知对殖民遗产旅游情感体验的影响 ——以广州沙面岛为例

中国数量众多的租界本质是殖民统治时期的空间遗存,但随着时间的推移,一些历史背景已经被遗忘。以广州沙面为例,利用情感量表问卷对具备不同历史知识的340个样本进行认知与情感体验评价,探索历史背景认知对旅游者情感体验的作用与情感体验差异的产生原因。研究发现：1）愉悦、目标一致性与新奇/确定决定积极情感,自我投入决定消极情感;2）接受沙面历史背景介绍的旅游者情感体验更消极,认知评价具有显著差异。殖民历史背景认知通过降低旅游者的愉悦、目标一致性,减弱积极情感欢乐、喜爱,提升自我投入从而增强消极情感气愤、悲伤、畏惧;3）殖民历史认知是否导致情感体验趋于消极由个体的评价所决定。历史背景知识为旅游者带来深入旅游体验的同时不会影响旅游追求愉悦的本质,这为殖民遗产旅游的展示与管理带来新的启示。     

基于生态位理论的东北三省政府干预强度与市场化水平格局演变研究

以“政府干预强度”和“市场化水平”为研究对象,通过对其生态系统的剖析,构建相应的评价指标体系及其生态位模型,并选取东北三省地级市为评价对象,对其“强政府弱市场”格局和演变趋势进行分析。定量分析的主要结论为：东北三省普遍存在“强政府弱市场”现状,其中黑龙江省最为突出,其次为吉林省、辽宁省;东北三省“强政府弱市场”格局出现多次波动,仅2003~2005年降幅较高,说明2003年“东北振兴战略”影响效果的持续性较短;东北各地市“强政府弱市场”格局具有明显的区域溢出效应,格局较明显的区域主要集中在离中心城市或沿海口岸较远的黑龙江省北部以及辽宁省、吉林省的部分内陆城市。     

科尔沁沙质放牧草地植物多样性及生态位的分异规律研究

研究结果表明:①不同放牧强度下群落演替方向和速度有很大差异,其中过牧使植被种类组成趋于简单,植物多样性指数下降,草地中以一年生劣质牧草占绝对优势,轻牧和禁牧则相反;②由于群落的物种组成和植物种群数量的变化,使群落占据的物种生态位也明显分异,其中轻牧和禁牧的生态位宽度指数趋于增大,过牧趋于下降,中牧年际波动大。由于生态位分离明显,使生态位相似性降低,生态位重叠部分很小;③随着植被的分异,在属性空间上其位置发生飘移,变异越大,飘移的愈分散,其中轻牧和禁牧下植被在属性空间的位置呈曲线型分布,说明其演替呈有规律的渐变过程,而重牧下植被分异剧烈,各点在空间分布零散且距离远,说明其演替跃变性强。     

Making ends meet, in the household and on the planet

Policy-making in relation to sustainable development is usually at the national (or, in relation to climate change, the global) level, yet the consumption it seeks to modify takes place at the household level. If households all ‘made ends meet’ in the same way then the much-relied upon notion of per capita consumption would be valid and we could rely on ‘top-down’ modelling to guide policy. Cultural Theory, however, predicts that there are five socially viable ways of making ends meet, and that all of them will be found (in varying proportions) within any nation. This prediction has been tested on a sample of 220 British households and shown to be well supported. Top-down modelling, it is argued, has to give way to a constructive interplay between the reflexive policy-maker and a plurally responsive citizenry. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effects of fracture intersections on seismic dispersion: theoretical predictions versus numerical simulations

The detection and characterisation of domains of intersecting fractures are important goals in several disciplines of current interest, including exploration and production of unconventional reservoirs, nuclear waste storage, CO₂ sequestration, and groundwater hydrology, among others. The objective of this study is to propose a theoretical framework for quantifying the effects of fracture intersections on the frequency‐dependent elastic properties of fluid‐saturated porous and fractured rocks. Three characteristic frequency regimes for fluid pressure communication are identified. In the low‐frequency limit, fractures are in full pressure communication with the embedding porous matrix and with other fractures. Conversely, in the high‐frequency limit, fractures are hydraulically isolated from the matrix and from other fractures. At intermediate frequencies, fractures are hydraulically isolated from the matrix porosity but can be in hydraulic communication with each other, depending on whether fracture sets are intersecting. For each frequency regime, the effective stiffness coefficients are derived using the linear‐slip theory and anisotropic Gassmann equations. Explicit mathematical expressions for the two characteristic frequencies that separate the three frequency regimes are also determined. Theoretical predictions are then applied to two synthetic 2D samples, each containing two orthogonal fracture sets: one with and another without intersections. The resulting stiffness coefficients, Thomsen‐style anisotropy parameters, and the transition frequencies show good agreement with corresponding numerical simulations. The theoretical results are applicable not only to 2D but also to 3D fracture systems and are amenable to being employed in inversion schemes designed to characterise fracture systems.     

Further results for astrophysics from the cosmology within the framework of the Projective Unified Field Theory

Recently the 5‐dimensional Projective Unified Field Theory (PUFT) of the author (Schmutzer 1995a, Schmutzer 1995b) has been applied to a closed homogeneous isotropic cosmological model with the result of a cosmology without big bang (Schmutzer 1999a, Schmutzer 1999b). Continuing this approach, in this paper following subjects are treated: recalculation of numerical values of cosmological quantities, exact solution of the field equations to a point‐like body, motion of a test body in such a field, definition of the empirical effective gravitational factor (“constant”), Einstein effects compared to the empirical situation, adiabatic approximation of the motion of an orbiting testbody under the influence of the expanding cosmos (transition of the ellipses to circles, decrease of the radius of the orbiting bodies, decrease of the excentricity, increase of the frequency of orbiting objects etc.), heat production in a moving body induced by the cosmological expansion with application to various cosmic objects.     

Pre-stack Kirchhoff depth migration local space-shift imaging condition: synthetic and data examples

Extracting accurate common image angle gathers from pre-stack depth migrations is important in the generation of any incremental uplift to the amplitude versus angle attributes and seismic inversions that can lead to significant impacts in exploration and development success. The commonly used Kirchhoff migration outputs surface common offset image gathers that require a transformation to angle gathers for amplitude versus angle analysis. The accuracy of this transformation is one of the factors that determine the robustness of the amplitude versus angle measurements. Here, we investigate the possibility of implementing an extended imaging condition, focusing on the space-lag condition, for generating subsurface reflection angle gathers within a Kirchhoff migration. The objective is to determine if exploiting the spatial local shift imaging condition can provide any increase in angle gather fidelity relative to the common offset image gathers. The same restrictions with a ray-based approach will apply using the extended imaging condition as both the offset and extended imaging condition method use travel times derived from solutions to an Eikonal equation. The aims are to offer an alternative ray-based method to generate subsurface angle gathers and to understand the impact on the amplitude versus angle response. To this end, the implementation of the space-shift imaging condition is discussed and results of three different data sets are presented. A layered three-dimensional model and a complex two-dimensional model are used to assess the space shift image gathers output from such a migration scheme and to evaluate the seismic attributes relative to the traditional surface offset common image gathers. The synthetic results show that the extended imaging condition clearly provides an uplift in the measured amplitude versus angle over the surface offset migration. The noise profile post-migration is also improved for the space-lag migration due to the double summation inside the migration. Finally, we show an example of a space-lag gather from deep marine data and compare the resultant angle gathers with those generated from an offset migration and a time-shift imaging condition Kirchhoff migration. The comparison of the real data with a well log shows that the space-lag result is a better match to the well compared to the time-lag extended imaging condition and the common offset Kirchhoff migration. Overall, the results from the synthetics and real data show that a Kirchhoff migration with an extended imaging condition is capable of generating subsurface angle gathers with an incremental improvement in amplitude versus angle fidelity and lower noise but comes at a higher computational cost.     

新型地震预警方法研究及预警能力分析

本文研究了一种不同于传统地震预警方法的新型预警方法。这种预警方法利用数据同化技术对实时波动场进行精确估计,然后再利用基于辐射传输理论的蒙特卡洛直接模拟法对波动能量的传播做数值模拟,并最终计算预警目标区烈度并做阈值判断发出预警警报。整个预警过程无需触发、无需定位、无需测定震级、无需利用衰减关系,较传统预警方法具有明显不同的技术手段,比较有效避免了传统地震预警方法中一系列基于经验统计规律的误差累积和单纯依靠初至P波信息在应对复杂地震时的局限性。本文选择了2011年3月11日日本M_w9.0地震和2016年2月6日台湾M_w6.7美浓地震作为预警模拟震例,分析并论证了本文预警方法在处理网外地震、网内地震以及复杂地震时的预警能力,最终得出本文预警方法在应对网内地震时具有良好的预警准确性和时效性,以及相对于传统预警方法在处理复杂地震时具有较大的优势。最后,总结并展望了本文研究工作的不足之处和有待继续研究的地方。     

Cosmology without Big Bang within the framework of the Projective Unified Field Theory and the influence on the motion of cosmic objects

The Projective Unified Field Theory having been developed by the author since 1957 is applied to a closed homogeneous isotropic cosmological model. By postulating a (new) conservation law for the scalaric substrate mass (derived from the balance equation of matter and leading to a basically new view on the concept of mass in context with the Mach principle) we obtained a coupled system of differential equations for the world radius and the scalaric world function, which could be treated numerically by Maple. Detailed calculations show that the big bang singularity of the Einstein theory can be avoided. Since the mass density and the temperature of the background radiation exhibit maxima at the same time after the cosmological “big start”, this fact could be of interest for cosmogonic activities. Within the framework of this theory there are hints for an antigravitational world era with repulsive forces after the big start. Furthermore, the balance equations for the energy and the angular momentum of a body as well as the equation of motion of a body (with a series of consequences) are derived. In this context we found a formula for the time dependence of the “effective Newtonian gravitational constant”. Further results refer to certain aspects for understanding the observed rotational curves of cosmic objects within galaxies as well as to the conservation of the number of photons and baryons and their mutual ratio etc.