工程风险分析中的风险当量及其评价标准

目前，量化、半量化风险分析是工程风险分析的主流。在对工程进行量化和半量化风险分析时，无论采用什么方法，风险评价指标和评价标准都是关键的重要问题。只有在建立了统一的评价指标和评价标准体系的基础上，对工程进行的风险分析能够得出正确和一致的结论。文章通过对国内外风险分析理论和实践的研究和总结，提出了在工程风险分析中确定风险评价指标和评价标准的原则和方法。     

闽中、闽东渔场扁舵鲣的资源生物学

本文以1981～1984年4～9月累计18个月在闵中、闵东渔场开展中上层鱼类资源开发性探捕调查的材料,报道了扁舵鲣的生态分布、群体结构和生活史主要特征。鱼群先后于4～7月由南而北进入本渔场,数量分布以5月为多;栖息的最适温、盐度分别为23.5～25.5℃和33～34;渔获群体由0～V龄组成;性成熟的最小年龄为Ⅰ龄,最小叉长271～280mm;生长参数L_∞=484.44mm,W_∞=2050.76g,K=0.5109,t_0=0.3598;瞬时自然死亡率为0.8937,开发比率为0.2138,属于轻度利用的鱼类资源,尚有较大的开发潜力。     

疏浚物倾倒区海水水质级别的模糊综合评价

应用模糊综合评价方法对大连臭水套海域疏浚物预选倾倒区的水质状况进行了评价，得到了有益的结论。     

Swath mapping of the seafloor and its application to deep-bottom fisheries in New Caledonia

A bottom longline fishery operated in the EEZ of New Caledonia from 1988 to 1991. Fishing focused on five seamounts with summits at depths ranging from 500 to 750 m. The target species was alfonsino, Beryx splendens. As the soundings available from marine charts were not detailed enough, the fishing masters had to make their own charts in order to set the gear in the right location. A series of 11 scientific cruises devoted to a research program on alfonsino was launched in late 1991. During the first scientific cruises, several days were spent mapping the seabed to improve the existing knowledge of the topography of three seamounts by coupling the EDO echosounder depth measurements to the GPS positions. As this procedure is slow, it is applicable to limited areas or, if a wider grid is used, to large zones to locate major structures such as ridges and seamounts. The emergence of the multibeam echosounder has greatly improved seabed mapping performance. This tool seems to fit the requirement of exploratory deep-bottom fishing particularly well, as it covers large areas while providing details of the bottom. The EM 12 was used to obtain bathymetry and imagery of the SE portion of the EEZ of New Caledonia, covering an approximate area of 70,000 km² in two weeks. For depths ranging from 500 to 4,500 m, the results were impressive. They confirmed the known major features and provided greater topographical detail, revealing fine unknown structures. They also provided information on the type of substratum, information which might influence the fishing strategy. Finally, they made it possible to obtain an accurate estimate of the exploitable area which in turn led to new stock estimates.     

珠江三角洲地质灾害的模糊综合评价

珠江三角洲地质灾害种类的多样性与其所处的复杂地质环境和多变的气候条件密切相关。文章选用了地震活动、活动断裂、地壳升降运动、软土地基、地面塌陷以及冲、淤积等６个主要因素作为评价指标，并用模糊数学方法对珠江三角洲内１７个小区作了计算，结果表明该区大部分地区属于轻灾害区，只有滨海沿岸地区属于较重灾害区。     

Abundance of the introduced seastar, Asterias amurensis, and spatial variability in soft sediment assemblages in SE Tasmania: Clear correlations but complex interpretation

The northern Pacific seastar, Asterias amurensis, was first collected in southeast Tasmania in 1986. Mistaken for the endemic asteroid Uniophora granifera, its true identity was not realised until 1992. It is now a conspicuous predator in soft sediment habitats in this region, and is considered a major threat to native assemblages and commercial species. We examined the structure of soft sediment assemblages at different spatial scales in southeast Tasmania, and correlated spatial variation in community composition with seastar abundances. We found that the structure of soft sediment assemblages is highly variable at a range of spatial scales from metres to tens of kilometres. Clear differences in the composition of assemblages and abundances of major taxa were detected between areas with and without seastars and between areas with low and high seastar densities. However, the nature of these patterns suggests that they are more likely due to differences in sediment characteristics than due to impacts of the seastar. Thus, spatial differences in soft sediment assemblages might have been erroneously attributed to seastars without detailed information on important physical factors such as sediment characteristics. A second survey, using larger sampling units (1 m²) but across a more limited spatial extent, targeted bivalves and heart urchins that were identified as important prey of the seastar in observations of feeding and in experimental studies. Large-scale patterns of abundance and size structure were consistent with seastar effects anticipated from small-scale experimental and feeding studies for some, but not all, species. While the field survey ultimately provided evidence about the presence or absence of seastar impacts at large-scales, the identification of key ecological variables in experimental and feeding studies proved crucial to both the design and interpretation of patterns observed in the large-scale surveys. Overall, this work highlighted the necessity to consider multiple lines of evidence rather than relying on a single ‘inferential’ test, in the absence of pre-impact data.     

Investigation and sensitivity analysis of a mechanistic phytoplankton model implemented in a new modular numerical tool (Eco3M) dedicated to biogeochemical modelling

A new class of phytoplankton models with a mechanistic basis has been presented in a companion paper (Baklouti, M., Diaz, F., Pinazo, C., Faure, V., Queguiner, B., 2006. Investigation of mechanistic formulations depicting phytoplankton dynamics for models of marine pelagic ecosystems. Progress in Oceanography). It is the default class of models implemented in our new numerical tool Eco3M, which is dedicated to Ecological, Mechanistic and Modular Modelling. A brief overview of its main features is given in Section 2 of the present paper. In the next sections, a particular phytoplankton model among the aforementioned class has been tested with special emphasis on the mechanistic photosynthesis component relating the photosynthetic rate to the proportion of open photosystems II. The present study encompasses several essential steps that are inherent to any modelling, including model reduction, model sensitivity analysis and comparison of model outputs with experiments. The global sensitivity analysis of the plankton model for one-at-a-time parameter perturbations revealed a restricted set of parameters having major influence on the model outputs. Sensitivity tests involving simultaneous parameter perturbations within the range actually encountered in the literature provided a confidence interval for the outputs. Chemostat experiments performed on nitrate-limited diatoms grown under low (LL) and high-light (HL) conditions have been used for comparison with model outputs. The good fit between measured data and model outputs using the same parameter values in both the LL and HL cases demonstrates the ability of our model to represent the main features of phytoplankton dynamics including photoacclimation. Finally, Eco3M is ultimately intended to include explicit bacterial and zooplankton compartments, as well as to be coupled with ocean circulation models, but the intrinsic behavior of the phytoplankton model has been investigated first, independently of physical forcing.