A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.     

Objective Analysis on Large-scale Circulation Type and Its Links to Precipitation over China

Atmospheric circulation anomaly is a direct cause of weather and climate change. In the past, most researches for the relationship between Weather Type (WT) and precipitation have mainly focused on the subjective classification and diagnosis. Compared to the subjective analysis, objective classification uses more consistent index and standard unification, thus, we can get more WTs, and it has been widely used in many areas. By using daily 12UTC Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Precipitable Water (PW), and 700 hPa wind speed (UV700) data from ECMWF’s Interim Reanalysis, the classification of WTs over China was performed with the method of obliquely rotated T-mode principle component analysis. WT and its link to precipitation over China were further analyzed. The results show that the influence of different WTs on precipitation is not uniform over China, and also show distinctly difference in different seasons. A common feature is that WTs great impact on the regions and months with large precipitation, while less impact on regions and months have with less precipitation. In addition, precipitation trends originating from WT intensity changes are much more deterministic, significant, and predictable than trends from WT frequency changes.     

西太平洋暖池对夏季华东海面日最大风速变化的影响

利用1979—2018年ERA Interim地面10 m风场、位势高度场、温度场和风场,Hadley中心HadISST再分析海温资料,采用SVD分析、合成分析等方法,研究了夏季（6—8月）西太平洋暖池关键海域海表面温度（Sea Surface Temperature,简称SST）对华东海域夏季10 m日最大风速变化的影响关系。SVD分析结果表明,夏季华东近海风速变化与菲律宾以东海域SST有明显负相关,第一模态左、右空间向量的时间系数相关达0.58,通过了置信度为95%的显著性检验。当西太平洋暖池SST正异常时,暖池海域SST增高,西北太平洋副热带高压（以下简称副高）加强,副高脊线北进（西北太平洋副高脊线纬度位置与暖池SST相关系数达到0.46,通过置信度为95%显著性检验）。此时华东近海正处于副高控制,近海下沉运动增强,大气温度垂直剖面有普遍增温现象,10 m风场有偏北风异常,海面风速减小约占40 a平均风速的约30%;当暖池SST负异常时,副高东撤南退,华东近海冷空气活动加强,温度垂直剖面存在显著降温现象,华东近海风速增加占40 a平均风速的20%以上。本研究进一步说明了暖池SST异常是一个有效的预报因子,可用于华东近海海面风速预测预报。     

西南印度洋中脊斜向扩张分段特征及构造成因探讨

斜向扩张是超慢速扩张洋中脊独特的构造特征,其地形分段特征明显区别于经典的快速-慢速端元洋中脊模型,是理解超慢速扩张洋中脊地质过程的重要切入点。基于西南印度洋中脊Indomed-Gallieni和Shaka-DuToit段多波束地形数据,分析了不同斜向扩张角度(α)洋中脊的地形分段样式。其中,46.5°~47.5°E(α=5°)、16°~25°E(α=10°)和48.5°~52°E(α=15°)为近正向扩张段,发育雁列式叠置的中央火山脊;47.5°~48.5°E(α=50°)和16°~25°E(α=60°)为斜向扩张段,仅在洋脊段中部形成中央火山脊。利用有限差分+颗粒法(FD+MIC)数值模拟技术研究了洋中脊应变分布特征对不同α值的响应,结合地形分析,认为斜向扩张角度和温度异常分布共同控制了洋中脊地形分段样式。近正向扩张洋中脊(α＜20°)在温度异常处形成地壳伸展应变的集中区,有利于岩浆汇聚,发育雁列式叠置的中央火山脊,其位置随温度异常分布的变化而改变;斜向扩张洋中脊(α>20°)地壳伸展应变集中区的位置受斜向扩张几何样式控制,在洋脊段中部发育中央火山脊,对温度异常不敏感,形成位置长期固定的岩浆活动中心。     

台风“摩羯”与“温比亚”环流中龙卷小尺度涡旋特征及可预警性分析

利用多普勒天气雷达探测资料,结合常规气象观测资料和天气实况及灾情调查,对2018年8月14日台风“摩羯”（1814）和8月19日台风“温比亚”（1818）产生龙卷的环境物理量及龙卷风暴强度结构特征进行了分析,对诱发龙卷和未诱发龙卷的小尺度气旋性涡旋特征进行了对比。结果表明：两次台风减弱低压东北象限是龙卷发生的关键区,低层高湿,强的低层垂直风切变和大的相对风暴螺旋度是关键物理量;龙卷出现时都伴有ΔV＞20.0 m·s-1的小尺度气旋性涡旋,且基本出现在2.0 km高度以下,但并不是所有这种低层小尺度气旋性涡旋都能诱发龙卷;以ΔV＞20.0 m·s-1为阈值,龙卷识别具有较高的命中率,识别准确率为31.8%,空报率为67.4%,漏报率为6.7%;约35.7%的龙卷没有识别时间提前量,半数龙卷几乎没有预警时间提前量。     

Delineation of the 85°E ridge and its structure in the Mahanadi Offshore Basin,Eastern Continental Margin of India (ECMI), from seismic reflection imaging

The passive Eastern Continental Margin of India (ECMI) evolved during the break up of India and East Antarctica in the Early Cretaceous. The 85°E ridge is a prominent linear aseismic feature extending from the Afanasy Nikitin Seamounts northward to the Mahanadi basin along the ECMI. Earlier workers have interpreted the ridge to be a prominent hot spot trail. In the absence of conclusive data, the extension of the ridge towards its northern extremity below the thick Bengal Fan sediments was a matter of postulation. In the present study, interpretation of high resolution 2-D reflection data from the Mahanadi Offshore Basin, located in the northern part of the ridge, unequivocally indicates continuation of the ridge across the continent–ocean boundary into the slope and shelf tracts of the ECMI. Its morphology and internal architecture suggest a volcanic plume related origin that can be correlated with the activity of the Kerguelen hot spot in the nascent Indian Ocean. In the continental region, the plume related volcanic activity appears to have obliterated all seismic features typical of continental crust. The deeper oceanic crust, over which the hot spot plume erupted, shows the presence of linear NS aligned basement highs, corresponding with the ridge, underlain by a depressed Moho discontinuity. In the deep oceanic basin, the ridge influences the sediment dispersal pattern from the Early Cretaceous (?)/early part of Late Cretaceous times till the end of Oligocene, which is an important aspect for understanding the hydrocarbon potential of the basin.     

过山气流与大兴安岭焚风

本文利用二维大气中尺度数值模式,模拟了冬季1月份大兴安岭东坡的焚风现象,并讨论了该焚风的成因。     

The first and the second e of the extreme value distribution,EV1

In the peak over threshold model resulting in the Extreme-value distribution, type I, (EV1) the firste of the distribution function is based on the Poisson number of exceedances, and the seconde arises from the Exponentially distributed magnitudes.This paper, on the one hand, generalises the Poisson model to the (positive and negative) Binomial distribution, and, on the other hand, the Exponential distribution is generalised to the Generalised Pareto distribution. Lack of fit with respect to the Poisson and Exponential distribution is measured by statistics derived from those which would be locally most powerful if the estimates of the location and scale parameter were equal to the true parameter values. Ways of combining both statistics are discussed.     

一种新的计算冰面饱和水汽压方法

综述了国内外近似计算平面饱和水汽压公式。给出了较为精确、简单的平冰面饱和水汽压计算式，并与Ｗｅｘｌｅｒ等的计算结果进行了比较。