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气候变化影响下极端水文事件的多变量统计模型研究

以黄河流域太原气象站和淮河流域鲁台子水文站为研究对象,利用Copula函数构建气候要素（降水）同极端水文事件（干旱和洪水）之间的多元统计模型,分析不同降水条件下不同等级干旱和洪水的发生概率变化。结果表明,Gumbel Copula能够较好地描述太原站7月份的前期累加降水量和帕默尔干旱指数（PDSI）的相关结构。随着降水量的增加,极端干旱的发生概率逐渐减小,重旱、中旱和轻旱的发生概率则先增加后减小。Clayton Copula能够较好地描述鲁台子水文站前期累加降水量和洪峰流量之间的相关结构。当前期累加降水量大于等于某一定值时,随着年最大洪峰x的增大,发生洪峰≥x的极端洪水事件的概率逐渐减小。在同一个极端洪水发生概率下,前期累加降水量越大,洪峰流量出现大值的可能性越大。     

地下核爆炸地震波二次源特征

层裂是地下核爆炸震源物理过程中最重要的非球对称源过程.对其机制的研究,多基于面波资料,本文基于远场体波资料,利用经验格林函数方法,消除路径及接收场地效应,利用地下核爆炸远场地震波P波数据对震源时间函数进行了反演,结果显示明显的双脉冲特征,该二次源特征不随方位角及震中距变化,说明它源自震源本身,其双脉冲特征与层裂机制相符.     

海洋岩石圈板块有效弹性厚度研究

本文在前人研究大陆岩石圈板块有效弹性厚度的基础上,建立研究海洋岩石圈板块有效弹性厚度的理论模型,推导出与大陆岩石圈不同的海洋岩石圈板块响应函数 Z(k,T_e) 理论计算公式.并分析海洋岩石圈板块响应函数 Z(k,T_e) 的特点.文中对实际的海洋测量数据的响应函数 Z(k,T_e) 进行计算和分析,估算我国南海南沙海域和南海中央海盆岩石圈板块有效弹性厚度分别约为10 km和6~7 km.     

Analysis of implicit HHT‐α integration algorithm for real‐time hybrid simulation

Real‐time hybrid simulation is a viable experiment technique to evaluate the performance of structures equipped with rate‐dependent seismic devices when subject to dynamic loading. The integration algorithm used to solve the equations of motion has to be stable and accurate to achieve a successful real‐time hybrid simulation. The implicit HHT α‐algorithm is a popular integration algorithm for conducting structural dynamic time history analysis because of its desirable properties of unconditional stability for linear elastic structures and controllable numerical damping for high frequencies. The implicit form of the algorithm, however, requires iterations for nonlinear structures, which is undesirable for real‐time hybrid simulation. Consequently, the HHT α‐algorithm has been implemented for real‐time hybrid simulation using a fixed number of substep iterations. The resulting HHT α‐algorithm with a fixed number of substep iterations is believed to be unconditionally stable for linear elastic structures, but research on its stability and accuracy for nonlinear structures is quite limited. In this paper, a discrete transfer function approach is utilized to analyze the HHT α‐algorithm with a fixed number of substep iterations. The algorithm is shown to be unconditionally stable for linear elastic structures, but only conditionally stable for nonlinear softening or hardening structures. The equivalent damping of the algorithm is shown to be almost the same as that of the original HHT α‐algorithm, while the period elongation varies depending on the structural nonlinearity and the size of the integration time‐step. A modified form of the algorithm is proposed to improve its stability for use in nonlinear structures. The stability of the modified algorithm is demonstrated to be enhanced and have an accuracy that is comparable to that of the existing HHT α‐algorithm with a fixed number of substep iterations. Both numerical and real‐time hybrid simulations are conducted to verify the modified algorithm. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the modified algorithm for real‐time testing. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The response of saltation to wind speed fluctuations

The response time of saltation to spatial or temporal wind speed fluctuations constitutes an important control parameter for aeolian sediment transport and deposition. In this paper, we present direct measurements of the response time obtained from several field experiments. The sand transport was studied using six small microphones arranged in a vertical profile and collocated with a sonic anemometer, a webcam and a cup anemometer tower. The webcam was coupled with the sonic anemometer via a personal computer and provides information on creeping and saltating grains with a sampling rate of 10 Hz. Sediment transport measurements were obtained over four periods. The Wiener filter, a signal processing technique, is used to obtain a discrete transfer function that relates the horizontal wind speed and the non‐intermittent sand transport. The transfer function can be established using an exponential function with a time constant or characteristic response time τ without time shift. The response time fluctuated between zero and 1·5 seconds depending on the turbulence intensity, the saltation activity, the measuring height and sampling rates. The Wiener filter coefficients suggest that the response of saltation to wind speed alterations is determined by more than one process. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

汶川地震强地面运动模拟

基于确定性震源模型的方法主要用于计算低频(11 Hz)地震动常用经验格林函数法或随机方法,对低频地震动模拟不够准确．本文在确定性震源模型方法基础上,尝试采用分解给定的震源模型的方法来模拟宽频带(0.1——10 Hz)强地面运动,即采用分级离散断层面和分解断层面破裂单元上升时间的方法,增加震源时间函数中的高频信号,从而避免了对地震记录丰富程度和准确性的依赖．文中模拟计算了汶川MS8.0地震在8个地震观测台的地震动,将模拟结果和观测记录进行了加速度时程曲线和傅里叶振幅谱的对比分析．对比结果显示,模拟估计的地震动峰值加速度和持续时间与观测记录的数据基本在plusmn;50%的精度范围内相同,傅里叶振幅谱显示模拟结果有得到10 Hz左右的高频成分. 四川盆地中的台站模拟结果高频衰减比观测记录要快,原因是模拟过程没有考虑场地效应.对强地震动模拟还是要综合考虑震源、传播路径和场地的影响．研究结果表明,此改变震源输入的确定性方法可应用于模拟近断层宽频强地面运动．      

空间光滑地震活动性模型中光滑函数的比较研究

使用Frankel提出的基于空间光滑地震活动性模型的地震危险性分析方法,选择华南、华北、川滇3个地区的地震记录,比较分析了高斯、幂律和地震分形分布光滑函数3种光滑函数在不同地区的适用性．结果表明,使用交叉验证法可以为高斯光滑函数选取合适的相关距离c值,光滑得到的地震活动性模型能够真实反映研究区域的地震活动特征,根据活动性模型计算得出的峰值加速度(PGA)分布也符合人们对研究区域地震危险性的认识．幂律光滑函数适用于地震活动性较强的地区,且具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．光滑程度较低的幂律光滑函数不适用于地震活动性弱的地区,在该类地区应选择光滑程度较高的高斯光滑函数．地震分形分布光滑函数不适用于地震活动较强且地震活动强度差异较大的地区,其容易过分高估高震级地震对地震危险性的影响,而忽略了低震级地震对地震危险性的贡献．但对于地震活动较弱且地震活动强度差异较小的地区,可使用地震分形分布光滑函数,且同样具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．      

小孔径台阵垂直分量P波接收函数研究及应用

尝试用垂直分量P波接收函数技术,分离莫霍面多次反射透射震相PpPmp,以此确定台阵下方的地壳厚度．利用兰州小孔径台阵记录的16次深远地震资料,分离了PpPmp震相,根据其到时计算台阵下方的地壳厚度约(51.6plusmn;1.8) km,与前人研究结果一致．      

综合定点前兆异常推测地震危险区域的一种途径

1998年张北6.2级地震前,山西、河北及其附近地区出现的定点形变、流体前兆异常,具有随时间推移从震区外围大范围区域向震区附近迁移、集中的趋势特性.通过构建异常信号传播函数,借助网格搜索—拟牛顿最小二乘法反演汇聚区域即推测可能的地震危险区,所得汇聚区域边缘距实际震中仅25 ～51 km、汇聚时刻与发震时刻仅差数天,且震前中短期阶段汇聚速度加快.