Ground motion prediction with the empirical Green's function technique: an assessment of uncertainties and confidence level

An assessment of uncertainties for ground motion predictions with the aid of the empirical Green's function (EGF) technique is presented. The main input parameters were identified, and their respective uncertainties were assessed by means of an international expert inquiry. The repercussion of these input uncertainties on the final ground motion estimates were investigated by means of the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique. The mean ground motion estimates (response spectra) and their standard deviations were compared with results obtained from empirical attenuation laws. The most sensitive input parameter turned out to be the seismic moment corresponding to the EGF. In general, if the source parameters are well determined, equivalent uncertainties, statistically speaking, can be expected from the EGF technique and from the application of attenuation laws. Therefore, if EGFs with well known source parameters are available, the EGF technique seems to be preferable: site effects are automatically taken into account, and physically realistic acceleration time histories can be obtained. However, further investigations on the reliability of the EGF technique should be performed, and finally, it is recalled that the EGF technique is based on the assumption of linearity. If conditions are such that this assumption cannot be maintained, the EGF technique should be combined with non-linear geotechnical methods.     

黑孜尔水库地区现今构造运动特征

秋立塔格断裂和黑孜尔断裂是穿过黑孜尔水库的活动构造带。黑孜尔断裂现今活动方式继承了新构造运动以来的运动特点。该地区发生6级左右地震有10年左右间隔的特点。1999年库车5．7级地震发生以后，库区地震活动目前处于相对平静的状态，在未来3—5年内，发生6级以上的地震可能性不大。     

地下圆形衬砌隧道对沿线地震动的影响(Ⅰ):级数解

利用波函数展开法，给出了地下圆形衬砌隧道对入射平面P波和SV波散射问题的一个级数解答，当衬砌与半空间介质相同时，该解答退化为文献中的无衬砌隧道的解答。级数解答为进一步定量研究隧道对入射平面P波和SV波的放大作用以及入射波长、入射角度、隧道直径和衬砌刚度等参数对隧道沿线地震动的影响奠定了理论基础。     

副热带高压研究回顾及对几个基本问题的再认识

文中在回顾有关副热带高压研究的基础上 ,指出传统的观念在东太平洋副热带高压和西太平洋副热带高压的关系、下沉运动和副热带高压的形成、热带加热异常与副热带高压异常的关系、副热带高压与其周边系统的关系等问题上存在一定的局限。并根据近期的研究成果对上述问题给出新的认识。最后文中展望了在副热带高压的研究中需进一步深入的几个方面 :不同纬度相互作用、青藏高原的作用、时间尺度 -内部动力过程和外界强迫的相对重要性、非线性过程和角动量平衡问题。     

作用于台风系统的动力——热力因子分析

本文导出了台风运动,结构和强度变化的关系方程式,该式表明作用于台风系统的动力－热力因子同时影响台风运动,结构和强度的变化。本文还是导出了台风系统内凝结与降水的不平衡与台风运动的关系方程式,分析该方程所得结果与台风运动的一些实际情况和统计研究结果一致。     

Influence of water saturation on horizontal and vertical motion at a porous soil interface induced by incident P wave

This paper describes a study on the influence of water saturation on horizontal and vertical motion at the interface between porous soil and rock formation due to an incident P wave. The soil is modeled as a partially water-saturated porous material with a small amount of air inclusions, while the underlying rock is approximately regarded as an ordinary one-phase solid. Theoretical formulation is developed for the computation of motion amplitudes in both horizontal and vertical components, which are considered as functions of the degree of saturation, the angle of incidence as well as the frequency. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the effect of saturation on displacement amplitudes in both components and their ratios. The results show that even a slight decrease of complete saturation may lead to a substantial change in the motion amplitudes in both horizontal and vertical components. In general, partial saturation may cause lower horizontal-to-vertical ratios over the entire range of incident angles except the normal incidence, implying the potential importance of saturation effects in the interpretation of field observations.     

Calibration of stochastic finite-fault ground motion simulations for the 1997 Umbria-Marche, Central Italy, earthquake sequence

The recent 1997 Umbria-Marche, Central Italy, earthquake sequence allowed us to model recorded ground motions using a method developed by Beresnev and Atkinson [Bull Seism Soc Am 87 (1997) 67–84; Seism Res Lett, 69 (1998) 27–32; Bull Seism Soc Am 88 (1998) 1392–1401]. The method generalizes the stochastic ground-motion simulation technique, developed for point sources, to the case of finite faults. It subdivides the fault plane into subfaults and assumes each subfault to be a point source with a ω² spectrum. Geometric spreading and regional anelastic attenuation are included in the model. The data include horizontal acceleration recordings from the SSN and ENEL databases of the 1997 Umbria-Marche events on 26 September, at 00:33 GMT, with M_w=5.7, and at 09:40 GMT, with M_w=6.0; and on 14 October at 15:23 GMT, with M_w=5.6. The strong motion simulations are performed using model parameters based on the results of previous studies, and adjusting the subfault size to calibrate the simulation model against recorded ground motions. Local site response is considered to account for observed amplification effects at specific recording sites (e.g. Nocera Umbra). A good agreement is found between the simulated response spectra and the recorded data, concluding that this method reproduces the salient ground-motion characteristics at different distances and azimuths.     

Influence of water saturation on horizontal and vertical motion at a porous soil interface induced by incident SV wave

Recent field observations have indicated that water saturation of soils may strongly affect the vertical ground motion. A study is therefore carried out to investigate the effect of saturation on horizontal and vertical motion at an interface of porous soils with potential contributions directed to site evaluation based on field observations of both the horizontal and vertical motion. The problem described in this paper corresponds to an SV wave incident at the interface between the overlying soil and the underlying rock formation. The soils are modeled as partially water-saturated porous material with a small amount of air inclusions, while the rock are approximately regarded as ordinary one-phase solid. Theoretical formulation is developed for the computation of amplitudes of horizontal and vertical interface motion, which are expressed as functions of the degree of saturation, the angle of incidence as well as the frequency. Numerical results are given for a typical sand to illustrate the influence of saturation on the interface motion in two directions and their ratios. The present study demonstrates that the effect of water saturation may be substantial on both the horizontal and vertical motion as well as on their ratios, implying the importance of such effects in the interpretation of field observations.     

Assessment of the vertical distribution on seismic ground motion

It is very important for the facilities such as nuclear power plants to infer seismic force loading on the earthquake stability assessment of the building foundation and the surrounding slope. The purpose of this paper was to propose a method to evaluate underground seismic coefficients, taking into account dynamic response along the depth in horizontally multi-layered ground. The dynamic property of the seismic coefficient was analyzed on the basis of earthquake records observed at hard and soft rock sites mostly found in Tertiary deposits and sedimentary ground sites of the Pleistocene and Holocene epoch. The evaluation methods of a vertical distribution on underground seismic coefficients were proposed for a few calculation methods on the classified layered ground. Extended evaluation for underground seismic coefficients was confirmed with respect to some multi-layered ground during strong motion.