Luminescence dating of cyclone-induced washover fans at Point Lefroy (NW Australia)

Reliable age dating of coastal sedimentary landforms is crucial for inferring storm frequencies and magnitudes from geological archives. However, in highly energetic coastal settings, radiocarbon dating is often biased by reworking and/or poorly constrained marine reservoir effects. Due to this, most cyclone-driven sediment archives from the semiarid coast of NW Australia – a region frequently affected by tropical cyclones but with a historical record limited to ∼150 a, and therefore strongly in need of long-term data inferred from geological evidence – are affected by chronological inaccuracies. Optically stimulated luminescence dating (OSL) may overcome these shortcomings by dating the transport of sediment directly. In turn it may be related to other challenges when applied to cyclone deposits from semiarid environments. The cyclone-induced washover fans at Point Lefroy, NW Australia, are composed of a heterogeneous mixture of coral fragments, shell hash and siliciclastic sand. This makes them particularly prone to high dose scatter resulting from a combination of partial bleaching, sediment mixing and dose-rate heterogeneity. The washover fans are further characterised by a discontinuous nature of cyclone deposition, as indicated by erosional features and macroscopic brunification horizons. By using a combination of quartz single grain dating, autoradiography, alpha counting and gamma spectrometry, sediment mixing and dose rate heterogeneity are identified as the main sources of dose scatter. The resulting chronology allows us to discriminate at least four well constrained phases of washover fan activity at ∼180, ∼360, ∼870, and ∼1300 a ago. Older but less well constrained activity phases occurred ∼1950, ∼2300, and ∼2830 a ago. While these phases of increased cyclone activity correlate with depositional units separated by potential palaeosols, OSL ages, quasi-continuous portable OSL reader measurements and gamma spectrometry measured with increased sampling resolution point to deposition of distinct washover units within a very short period of time. However, unambiguous discrimination between deposition of individual units by single events and deposition by several cyclones within periods of only a few decades is currently not possible.     

Analysis on Formation Mechanism of Rare ＇Thundersnow＇ Phenomenon in Shandong on 28 February 2010

利用各种常规观测资料、探空资料、T639模式资料和卫星云图,分析了2010年2月28日山东境内的一次罕见“雷打雪”过程。结果表明,此次过程是在有利的大尺度环流背景下产生的。西南暖湿气流强盛,对流层低层的低空急流不断向山东输送水汽和能量;同时,近低层冷空气的侵入,迫使暖湿空气沿冷空气爬升,触发不稳定能量释放,导致强对流天气发生。850hPa低涡及地面气旋的产生,使得气旋性辐合上升增强,加强了上升运动。随着近地层温度降到零度以下,雨转雪。降水过程后期,气旋向东北方向移动,造成鲁中和山东半岛的暴雪天气。卫星云图显示,MCC是造成此次强降水的直接原因。     

庄河地区一次大暴雨过程的多因子诊断分析

采用常规资料、自动站资料、多普勒雷达资料和NCEP每6 h1次,1°×1°的实时分析资料,对2007年8月10－12日庄河地区出现的一次大暴雨天气过程进行诊断分析。结果表明：受副热带高压后部深厚的暖湿气流及西风带高空槽、切变线及气旋倒槽等动力系统共同影响,庄河地区出现了大暴雨天气,但没有出现强雷暴,此过程主要影响系统是地面气旋倒槽;700 hPa和850 hPa低涡、切变线使中低层辐合加强,形成了较强的动力抬升和水汽辐合;庄河地区处于强而宽的假相当位温锋区中,位势不稳定的建立是造成此次强降水的必要条件。造成本次大暴雨天气的水汽通道有2条：一条来自孟加拉湾和减弱的热带低压,另一条来自东海。     

北太平洋风暴轴的三维空间结构

文中利用最新的0.5°×0.5°分辨率QuikSCAT(QuikBird Satellite Microwave Scatterometer Sea Winds Data)海面风场资料、NCEP(National Center for Environmental Prediction)的10 m高度风场资料和全球客观再分析资料,对1999-2005年冬季(1月)和夏季(7月)北太平洋风暴轴的三维空间结构进行了分析,发现冬季北太平洋风暴轴的强度较强,呈明显的纬向拉伸带状分布特征,位置偏南.夏季北太平洋风暴轴的强度较弱,位置偏北.根据不同高度上位势高度方差的水平分布特征,绘制了北太平洋风暴轴的三维结构示意图.利用高分辨率QuikSCAT资料对风暴轴特征的刻画更为细致,不但验证了Nakamu-ra在南大洋发现的双风暴轴现象,而且还发现在北太平洋和北大西洋下层分别存在"副热带风暴轴"和"副极地风暴轴"两个风暴轴.对1999-2005年冬季北太平洋气旋和反气旋的移动路径进行的统计分析,为北太平洋"双风暴轴"的存在提供了强有力的证据.     

Sinuosity of tropical cyclone tracks in the South West Indian Ocean: Spatio-temporal patterns and relationships with fundamental storm attributes

The shapes of 268 tropical cyclone tracks in the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) basin are investigated over the period 1977 to 2011 using an established metric for track sinuosity. Original cyclone position data from the RSMC La Réunion area of responsibility were accessed from the IBTrACS archive maintained by NOAA. Cyclone track sinuosity was measured within a GIS environment and the filtered results were normalised with a cube-root transformation function to reduce positive skew in the output sinuosity distribution. Several key findings from spatial and temporal analysis of sinuosity results may be highlighted. To assess geographical patterns, mapping tracks within designated quartile categories (straight, quasi-straight, curving and sinuous tracks) indicates which land areas in the SWIO are more likely to be affected by cyclones following sinuous tracks that are more difficult to forecast, in particular Madagascar and the islands of Réunion and Mauritius. Over the past three decades, the temporal sinuosity pattern shows a high degree of variability that will probably continue into the future. Yet crucially, a number of conspicuous episodes of relatively magnified or subdued sinuosity are recognised compared to long-term averages. This may present opportunities for identifying major climatic controls on regional anomalous cyclone migration behaviour. Within the average yearly cyclone season, the early months (September–December) have a tendency to produce more predictable straighter-moving cyclones, whereas January stands out as the singular month marking an abrupt swing towards a greater proportion (64%) of curving and sinuously-moving storms. This finding is of importance for vulnerability assessment, because a strong positive correlation is also identified between track sinuosity and cyclone longevity, such that storms steering less predictable sinuous courses are also those that tend to survive for longer durations.     

两次江淮气旋的云雨特征及其人工播云效果的综合分析

用天气学、云物理学、统计计算和数值模拟等方法，对1997年5月份影响我省的两次江淮气旋降水系统进行了综合分析研究，发现(1)中低空水汽输送条件较好，都形成了大范围较稳定的降水性层状云系，出现了连续性降水。两次过程的深厚程度、动力条件有差别，云雨的宏微观特征也有所不同；(2)云中过冷层较厚，过冷水含量较高，大滴浓度较高，众数直径较大，有利于人工催化；(3)云层降水粒子的形成，在冷层以凝华和淞附增长为主，核化和繁生相对较小，进入暖层后，主要是云滴与雨滴以及雨滴间碰并为主；(4)用干冰进行了6架次人工增雨催化作业，经综合检验，约增雨10%～40%；(5)使用层状云数值模式进行人工催化模拟，当加入50个/L人工冰核，可使地面降水增加30%左右。如果过量播撒(加入500个/L)人工冰核，降水反而减少。     

Cyclones and storm surges in Bangladesh: Some mitigative measures

Bangladesh, with its repeated cycle of floods, cyclones, and storm surges, has proved to be one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world. During the years from 1797 to 1991, Bangladesh has been hit by 60 severe cyclones (mostly accompanied by storm surges). This paper gives a brief account of these disasters with particular reference to the wind speed, surge height, loss of life, and damage to crops and properties, etc.In order to protect the coastal areas of Bangladesh from cyclonic storm surges and floods, a major system of embankments was constructed during the 1960s and 1970s, but this is now in need of rehabilitation. The Cyclone Protection Project, which was approved by the World Bank in 1989, would rehabilitate some of the existing embankments, build new embankments, and construct roads. Locally available materials, indigenous technology, and cheap surplus manpower should be used in this project. A variety of fruit trees should be planted along the dikes and roads.To the south-western part of Bangladesh bordering the Bay of Bengal, lies the world's largest single mangrove tract, known as the Sunderban, which covers a total area of 571 500 ha. This mangrove forest is of extreme importance since it provides efficient protection to life and property against cyclones and storm surges. But due to deforestation, the width of the mangrove belt is being rapidly diminished. The author therefore lays emphasis on coastal afforestation.Absolute security against cyclone hazard is probably out of the question, but an effective cyclone warning response can definitely reduce loss of life and damage to property. The author discusses the current conditions for cyclone forecasting and warning in Bangladesh, and then puts forward some proposals for improving the Cyclone Preparedness Programme.     

西北太平洋热带气旋在ENSO发展和衰减年的路径变化

本文运用有限混合模型算法对1979~2015年夏、秋季（6~11月）中国气象局（CMA）上海台风研究所（STI）的最佳路径数据集热带气旋（TC）路径进行聚类,将其路径分为七类,分别为第一类（西太西移型）、第二类（南海西移型）、第三类（沿海转折型）、第四类（低纬转折型）、第五类（洋面转折型）、第六类（近海转折型）、第七类（日本海转折型）;并利用S-EOF（季节EOF,Seasonal Empirical Orthogonal Function）方法确定ENSO四个位相（El Ni?o发展年、El Ni?o衰减年、La Ni?a发展年、La Ni?a衰减年）,分析在不同ENSO位相下TC路径的年际变化以及相应的流场,得到一些有意义的结论:El Ni?o发展年,TC在西北太平洋东南海域活动频繁,以第六类（近海转折型）路径为主;El Ni?o衰减年以第二类（南海西移型）路径居多,第七类（日本海转折型）路径也较为活跃;La Ni?a发展年,TC集中在西北象限海域,以第七类（日本海转折型）路径为主;La Ni?a衰减年,TC源地多位于我国沿海地区与台湾岛附近洋面上,以第三类（沿海转折型）路径为主。     

利用激光点云数据计算采石场开采量方法研究

采石场开采量计算,由于传统测量方法存在获取数据量少、精度低、复杂地形获取数据困难等问题,利用激光点云数据计算采石场开采量具有重要的研究意义。选择李庄采石场作为研究对象,利用徕卡C10获取点云数据,运用Cyclone软件对点云数据进行预处理,Geomagic软件对预处理数据进行精简。采用Cyclone,HD-3LS-SCENE,CASS软件对开采量分别进行计算,详细对比分析计算结果。研究结果表明:三种软件可满足工程需要。Cyclone软件计算精度最高,CASS软件操作快捷方便。根据软件多种性能指标的对比研究,确定采石场开采量行之有效的计算方法。     

Factors Affecting Evacuation Behavior: The Case of 2007 Cyclone Sidr,Bangladesh

Cyclone Sidr, a Category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on 15 November 2007. Despite early cyclone warnings and emergency evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines Sidr victims’ responses to cyclone warnings and evacuation orders, and explores the factors that would explain why the victims did or did not comply with the orders. Based on survey data collected from 277 Sidr survivors living in the four most severely impacted coastal districts, this study found that more than 75 percent of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Sidr's landfall. Despite the efforts of the Bangladesh government, there were lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures. Field data also reveal several reasons cited by respondents for not complying with evacuation orders. Multivariate analyses of survey data show that trust in warning messages was the most important determinant in the decision to seek refuge in safer shelters, followed by distance to nearest shelter and annual level of education. Several recommendations have been made to improve cyclone warnings and the use of public shelters for similar future events.