长江口的台风浪及其对崇明东滩的冲淤作用

本文分析了多年的台风和波浪资料得到如下的结果:对崇明东滩有较大影响的台风路径主要有两类:即在浙江中部至长江口登陆的台风和在长江口外侧海域转向北上的台风;佘山岛海洋站百年一遇的最大波高为5.6m;台风期间偏北、东北、东南的强风向均能引起长江口较大的增水现象。 本文还以8310号台风为例,阐明了台风前后的冲淤变化及台风浪塑造的滩地地貌形态。指出东旺沙和北八效高潮滩冲淤甚微,中低潮滩冲刷严重,奚东沙高潮滩冲刷严重,中低潮滩呈微淤状态。波浪对东滩塑造的主要地貌形态有冲刷坑和浪蚀泥坎。     

山东沿岸历史风暴潮探讨

作者根据地方史志资料进行分析与统计,提出山东沿岸风暴潮的特点:存在风潮和台风暴潮两种型式。在风潮中,春季风潮占绝对优势,秋季风潮是次要的。三者的关系是:台风暴潮:春季风潮:秋季风潮=50％:37％:13％。此外,还分析了在风暴潮记载中的有关气象记录问题以及历代王朝有关风暴潮记录的特点。提出历史风暴潮灾情的个例,举出1985年山东沿岸发生的风暴潮灾情,以说明风暴潮灾害的严重性。     

"尤特"0104号风暴潮分析

“尤特”（0104号）台风登陆前后,其中心气压和风力都不算是最强的,但却在粤东沿海造成了破历史记录的风暴潮,造成了严重的风暴潮灾害。是什么原因造成这种现象呢？本文从台风特性、台风暴潮及其重现期等进行分析,以期找出规律,为今后防御风类风暴潮有所裨益。     

复式河道滩地植物对水流紊动结构影响的试验研究

利用室内变坡水槽,精细模拟了复式河道滩地不同植物对漫滩水流的干扰作用,并借助声学多普勒测速仪(ADV)观测了不同垂线、不同测点的瞬时流速,计算了水质点三维相对紊动强度,分析了其变化特征,探讨了滩地不同种类植物对水流内部结构的影响。试验发现,滩地植物改变了复式河道水流内部结构,导致植物带内近床面处各个方向水流相对紊动强度明显减弱,横向因植物丛内阻力和流速变化引起的滩区壅水导致横比降增加,主槽相对紊动强度显著增强;植物淹没条件下水流相对紊动强度沿水深的分布明显存在转折点,此位置可以认为是滩地植物对水流影响的“第二边界”。     

大气-海洋-海浪耦合同化模式在台风过程模拟中的应用

基于MCT耦合器,利用中尺度大气模型WRF、海洋模型FVCOM和第三代海浪模型SWAN,实现大气、海洋和海浪的三者实时耦合计算,同时采用卫星微波辐射资料AMSU-A,通过WRF大气模式的资料同化模块WRFDA,实现对风场模拟的连续同化,从而建立起大气-海洋-海浪耦合与卫星数据同化的W-F-S-A耦合同化模式。将该模型应用于2014年台风“威马逊”的数值模拟,并与其他模型进行比较。结果表明,W-F-S-A耦合同化模式对于台风路径和风速的模拟结果优于单独耦合和单独同化结果,并且可以较好地模拟上层海洋对台风的响应特征。     

黄、东海天气系统对渤海风暴潮影响

渤海沿岸是风暴潮多发区域。研究者多关心渤海局地风引起风暴潮变化,而忽略黄、东海天气系统对渤海风暴潮的影响。为研究外围天气系统对局地风暴潮的影响,本文采用实测资料对比和设计理想数值试验等方法,对黄、东海天气系统影响的渤海风暴潮进行了研究。结果表明:1、TY1814"摩羯"和TY1818"温比亚"台风风暴潮的实测资料呈现当黄、东海风力较大,而渤海风力较小时,渤海沿岸也会出现较大风暴潮现象; 2、从FVCOM(Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model)模拟的理想数值试验中发现,黄、东海风向是东南风时,引起渤海沿岸风暴增水极值最大;3、以入海气旋和登陆北上台风两种类型天气系统风向变化设计理想数值试验,发现黄、东海的东南风持续时间对渤海沿岸风暴潮极值大小和出现时间影响较大。理想试验获得的结论不仅能为渤海风暴潮预测和防灾减灾提供理论依据,还能够有效减少预警应急中漏报的现象,降低沿海经济损失。     

1936年灵山63／4级地震极震区烈度分布及发震构造

根据现场调查材料,对1936年4月1日广西灵山6 3/4级地震震中区烈度进行评定并绘制了等震线图。图中烈度Ⅸ、Ⅷ度区呈“T”形,两长轴方向与区内NEE及NNW方向断裂吻合。据此认为该震的发震构造为NEE和NNW两组断裂,6 3/4级地震系两组断裂共轭破裂的结果。又据低烈值沿NEE方向衰减较慢,认为NEE组断裂同时起控震构造作用。     

Seismic hazard maps for Jordan and vicinity

Probabilistic methods are used to quantify the seismic hazard in Jordan and neighbouring regions. The hazard model incorporates the uncertainties associated with the seismicity parameters and the attenuation equation. Seven seismic sources are identified in the region and the seismicity parameters of these sources are estimated by making use of all the available information. Seismic hazard computations and the selection of peak ground acceleration and modified Mercalli intensity values at the nodes of a 25 × 25 km mesh covering the region under study are carried out by two different computer programs.The results of the study are presented through a set of seismic hazard maps displaying iso-acceleration and iso-intensity contours corresponding to specified return periods. The first set of maps is derived based on the seismicity data assessed in this study and display our best estimate of the seismic hazard for Jordan and the neighbouring areas. The second set of maps which shows the alternative estimate of seismic hazard is based solely on the seismicity parameters reported by other researchers. The third set of maps, called the Bayesian estimate of seismic hazard, reflects the influence of expert opinion involving more conservative assumptions regarding the Red Sea and Araba faults.     

INFLUENCE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR OF ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS ON TYPHOON MOTION

Typhoon is regarded as a convergent,modified Rankine vortex.Based on the vorticity equations written attwo levels,higher and lower in the troposphere,typhoon motions are discussed in this study.The analyticalexpressions of vortex motion direction and speed have been derived for simple homogeneous basic flows at twolevels.The expressions indicate that in the easterties,vertical wind shear enhances the steering of east flow,causing the vortex moving westward faster,otherwise,in the westerlies,it reduces the steering of the west flow,causing the vortex moving eastward slower.These results explain theoretically that“cyclones in the easterliesmove to the right of,and faster than the basic flow;conversely,cyclones in the westerlies move to the left of,andslower than the basic flow.”     

Deconvolution of squared velocity waveform as applied to the study of a noncoherent short-period radiator in the earthquake source

We consider an inverse problem of determination of short-period (high-frequency) radiator in an extended earthquake source. This radiator is assumed to be noncoherent (i.e., random), it can be described by its power flux or brightness (which depends on time and location over the extended source). To decide about this radiator we try to use temporal intensity function (TIF) of a seismic waveform at a given receiver point. It is defined as (time-varying) mean elastic wave energy flux through unit area. We suggest estimating it empirically from the velocity seismogram by its squaring and smoothing. We refer to this function as observed TIF. We believe that one can represent TIF produced by an extended radiator and recorded at some receiver point in the earth as convolution of the two components: (1) ideal intensity function (ITIF) which would be recorded in the ideal nonscattering earth from the same radiator; and (2) intensity function which would be recorded in the real earth from unit point instant radiator (intensity Green's function, IGF). This representation enables us to attempt to estimate an ITIF of a large earthquake by inverse filtering or deconvolution of the observed TIF of this event, using the observed TIF of a small event (actually, fore-or aftershock) as the empirical IGF. Therefore, the effect of scattering is stripped off. Examples of the application of this procedure to real data are given. We also show that if one can determine far-field ITIF for enough rays, one can extract from them the information on space-time structure of the radiator (that is, of brightness function). We apply this theoretical approach to short-periodP-wave records of the 1978 Miyagi-oki earthquake (M=7.6). Spatial and temporal centroids of a short-period radiator are estimated.