La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.     

Earth–Moon Separation Problem In The Motion Of Near Earth Asteroids

The analysis of application of two dynamical models (``Earth–Moon' and``barycentre' model) in the motion of Near Earth Asteroids was performed. Mainaim was the quantitative estimation of the influence of lunar perturbations on the motionof NEA. Additionally, basic tests of application of numerical methods weremade (RMVS3 and B–S methods). The orbits of 1083 Apollo–Aten–Amor and 7selected AAA objects were adopted as test particles in numerical integrationof the motion. The comparison between results obtained by both dynamicalmodels is discussed in detail. In specific cases, the application of the``Earth–Moon' dynamical model is very important and cannot be neglected incomputations of orbits.     

"三联式"资源定量预测与评价--数字找矿理论与实践探讨

随着信息技术的发展,矿产勘查已步入数字化,定量化研究的新阶段。“三联式”成矿预测及资源评价途径正是“数字找矿”的创新探索。“三联式”成矿预测以地质异常分析为基础,以成矿多样性分析与矿床谱系研究为指导,将地质异常,成矿多样性及矿床谱系三方面定量化研究紧密结合形成矿产预测及定量评价的有机切入点,是实现全面数字找矿的必由之路,也是矿产勘查评价领域应用信息技术的基础和前提。     

On the Structure of Symplectic Mappings. The Fast Lyapunov Indicator: a Very Sensitive Tool

It is already known (Froeschlé, Lega and Gonczi, 1997) that the Fast Lyapunov Indicator (FLI), that is the computation on a relatively short time of the largest Lyapunov indicator, allows to discriminate between ordered and weak chaotic motion. We have found that, under certain conditions, the FLI also discriminates between resonant and non-resonant orbits, not only for two-dimensional symplectic mappings but also for higher dimensional ones. Using this indicator, we present an example of the Arnold web detection for four and six-dimensional symplectic maps. We show that this method allows to detect the global transition of the system from an exponentially stable Nekhoroshevs like regime to the diffusive Chirikovs one.     

半拉格朗日、半隐式欧拉方程组大气数值模式研究

介绍了一个具有较高时间积分效率的三维弹性大气数值模式。其中,控制方程为能够描述大气非静力及可压缩性的欧拉方程组,时间积分采用了高效率的“半拉格朗日、半隐式”方案。通过引用一个简化的“云物理过程”参数化方案,针对大气中深厚湿对流过程的若干问题进行了数值试验,结果表明,模式能够对该过程中的一些基本和复杂现象进行有效地模拟。试验结果还表明,动力学框架具有很好的稳定性,能够实现高效率的时间积分,它还具有较好的频散特性,保证了空间计算的精度,从而完好地描述了风暴的形态。     

1997年伽师强震群活动的近场定点形变异常特征

对１９９７年伽师强震群前后的近场宁点形变资料和卡尔曼滤波结果的前兆异常进行了分析,结果表明,震前短临异常较为明显。通过密切跟踪,在后续强震的预报中发挥了重要作用。文中还对异常与孕震构造和应力场的关系进行了讨论。     

地电学地震预报方法软件系统(GSEP)

简要介绍了地电学地震预报方法软件系统（ＧＳＥＰ）的结构、主要功能、技术特点、应用范围、软件运行环境、研制开发平台、性能技术指标以及可进一步开发的内容和推广应用前景。     

Extensions to Spatial Factor Methods with an Illustration in Geochemistry

Many applications involving spatial data require several layers of information to be simultaneously analyzed in relation to underlying geography and topographic detail. This in turn generates a need for forms of multivariate analysis particularly oriented to spatial problems and designed to handle spatial structure and dependency both within and between spatially indexed multivariate responses. In this paper we focus on one group of such methods sometimes referred to as spatial factor analysis. Use of these techniques has so far been mostly restricted to applications in the geosciences and in some forms of image processing, but the methods have potential for wider use outside these fields. They are concerned with identifying components of a multivariate data set with a spatial covariance structure that predominantly acts over a particular spatial range or zone of influence. We review the various forms of spatial factor analysis that have been proposed and emphasize links between them and with the linear model of coregionalization employed in geostatistics. We then introduce extensions to such methods that may prove useful in exploratory spatial analysis, both generally and more specifically in the context of multivariate spatial prediction. Application of our proposed exploratory techniques is demonstrated on a small but illustrative geochemical data set involving multielement measurements from stream sediments.     

具有弱透水层的多层介质含水系统中污染质运移数值模拟研究——以大庆市纳污湖泡区为例

选取大庆市贴不贴泡区具有普遍意义的饱和-非饱和多层介质含水系统中石油类污染为研究对象.在分析水文地质条件的基础上, 利用实验研究获得含水系统中连接上下含水层的弱透水层的渗透规律, 然后运用数值模拟技术建立起此类含水系统中石油类污染质运移数值模拟模型.应用所建模型对污染质的污染趋势进行了预测, 并提出污染控制措施.      

瓦斯突出地球物理场的响应特征

研究了瓦斯突出地球物理场的电磁波和弹性波响应特征,其响应是构成瓦斯突出地球物理场的介质条件所表现出来的。关键层应力墙瓦斯突出机理认为,瓦斯突出煤层由关键层和伴随层构成。关键层和伴随层在空间的分布规律和相互作用体现在物理场的差异上,把关键层（或瓦斯突出煤体）作为地球物理场中的异常体进行研究是可以利用地球物理方法识别的。突出地球物理场响应特征的研究为从地球物理研究瓦斯突出预测理论和方法提供了科学思路。