Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。     

Atténuation de l'intensité macrosismique pour la France métropolitaine : importance de l'intensité épicentrale

The main result of this work is to show that macroseismic intensity decay with distance strongly depends on the epicentral intensity. An attenuation law that takes this parameter into account is proposed for Metropolitan France, from the analysis of SISFRANCE macroseismic database. Such a model significantly reduces the difference between observed and theoretical intensities. A map of the attenuation variations is also set up for Metropolitan France. No major site effects are observed, but at a broad scale, young Alpine regions display a stronger attenuation than old Hercynian regions. To cite this article: P. Arroucau et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

A high resolution relative paleointensity record from the Gerlache-Boyd paleo-ice stream region, northern Antarctic Peninsula

Herein we document and interpret an absolute chronological dating attempt using geomagnetic paleointensity data from a post-glacial sediment drape on the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf. Our results demonstrate that absolute dating can be established in Holocene Antarctic shelf sediments that lack suitable material for radiocarbon dating. Two jumbo piston cores of 10-m length were collected in the Western Bransfield Basin. The cores preserve a strong, stable remanent magnetization and meet the magnetic mineral assemblage criteria recommended for reliable paleointensity analyses. The relative paleomagnetic intensity records were tuned to published absolute and relative paleomagnetic stacks, which yielded a record of the last ∼8500 years for the post-glacial drape. Four tephra layers associated with documented eruptions of nearby Deception Island have been dated at 3.31, 3.73, 4.44, and 6.86 ± 0.07 ka using the geomagnetic paleointensity method. This study establishes the dual role of geomagnetic paleointensity and tephrochronology in marine sediments across both sides of the northern Antarctic Peninsula.     

Regional disparity in the changes of agricultura land use intensity in China during 1980-2002

Based on the cost-benefit data （1980-2002） of farm products and China Agriculture Yearbooks, this paper studies the regional disparity in the changes of the agricultural land use in China during the period 1980-2002 from three aspects such as the degree of intensity, the sown area and the abandoned farmland. The results show that： （1） The degree of intensity of land use in the westena region during 1980-2000 has a strong uptrend, but in the eastern and central regions the degree of intensity descends obviously and has shown a continuous downtrend since 1997. （2） The total sown area shrinks notably in the eastern region, while it enlarges constantly in the western region. （3） The sown area in the eastern, central and western regions has gone through a similar cyclic process： down （1980-1985）-up （1985-1991）-down （1991-1994）-up （1994-1999）-down （1999-2002）. However, there are obvious differences in amplitude variation and tendency among them. The sown area has shrunk in the eastern region and expanded in the central and western regions especially before 1999. （4） The most cases of abandoned farmland are reported in the central region, the second in the eastern region and the least in the western region. The abandonment phenomena chiefly occurred during 1992-1995 in the eastern region, and during 1998-2002 in the central region.     

小岩头滑坡稳定性分析

小岩头滑坡位于贵州省威宁县二(连浩特)河(口)高速公路K255 010~K255 240里程右侧,属一个大型古滑坡,发育于二叠系上统峨嵋山组玄武岩(P2β)地层中。在高速公路施工中对路堑进行深挖削坡,可能导致古滑坡中部、线路右侧斜坡失稳破坏,发生滑坡。因此,滑坡稳定性评价是重大工程地质问题之一。根据大量勘察试验资料,系统地揭示了滑坡的特征,分析了滑坡形成的控制因素、成因和形成机制,建立了滑坡体稳定性计算模型,利用反演计算法进行稳定性分析与评价,认为两滑体均处于滑动失稳状态。建议对滑坡体进行处理,采用排水、支挡、减压等措施进行整治。     

利用激光强度信息分类激光扫描测高数据

三维机载激光扫描测高数据中不仅含有每个激光脚点的位置和高程信息，而且越来越多的系统同时能提供激光脚点回波信号的强度信息。不同反射面介质对激光信号的反射特性不一样．用实测的数据对激光回波信号的强度信息进行统计标定，并基于标定结果．实现了联合激光强度信息和高程信息进行分类的算法．获得了较为满意的结果。     

春季北方气旋活动的气候特征及与气温和降水的关系

利用1948-2002年NCEP／NCAR再分析逐日海平面气压资料以及中国160站的降水和气温资料，分析了春季北方气旋活动频数和强度的时空变化特征，以及两者与中国降水和气温的相关关系。结果表明：春季北方气旋活动频繁，存在明显的两个高值中心，分别位于蒙古国的中部和我国东北北部地区。春季北方气旋活动频数和强度均存在明显的年际和年代际变化。伴随着一次全球性的年代际气候跃变，20世纪70年代中后期无论是频数还是强度均出现了显著的突变。春季北方气旋活动频数主要对我国北方地区的降水和气温有一定影响，活动频数多(少)年，我国华北大部、新疆北部降水偏少(多)；北疆地区气温回升(下降)，甘、宁、陕、内部分地区偏冷(暖)。80-90年代春季北方气旋活动频数的偏少，强度的减弱，导致我国北方地区沙尘暴次数比70年代减少.     

INTENSITY INDEX OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON AND ITS VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS

According to the basic characteristics of the activities of summer monsoon in the South China Sea,Standardized index,Is,has been designed that integrates a dynamic factor(southwesterly component) and a thermodynamic factor(OLR) for the indication of summer monsoon in the South China Sea,With the index determined for individual months of June,July and August and the entire summertime from 1975 to 1999,specific months and years are indicated that are either strong or weak in monsoon intensity,The variation is studied for the patterns and Is‘s relationship is revealed with the onset of summer monsoon and the precipitation in Guang-dong province and China.The results show that there are quasi-10 and quasi-3-4 year cycles in the interannual variation of the monsooon over the past 25 years.When it has an early(late)onset,the summer monsoon is usually strong (weak),In the strong(weak)monsoon,years,precipitation tends to be more(less)in the first raining season of the year but normal or less(normal)in the second,in the province,but it would be more(less) in northeastern China and most parts of the northern china and south of the lower reaches of the Changjiang River and less(more)in the middle and lower reaches of the river,western part of northern China and western China.     

Application of Linear Thermodynamics to the Atmospheric System. Part Ⅰ: Linear Phenomenological Relations and Thermodynamic Property of the Atmospheric System

从一般的热力学原理或其它自然原理对唯象关系所强加的限制，能够演绎出大气系统的一系列热力学性质。利用非平衡态线性热力学导出了湍流K闭合理论中湍流交换系数同唯象系数的关系，从理论上证明大气系统热量湍流输送同水泡之间存在交叉耦合，还导出了湍流强度同速度和位温梯度的关系，从而证明速度和位温空间分布的非均匀性是湍流之源。并证明湍流强度定理，不可压缩气体和各向同性湍流大气中，湍流强度正比于速度与位温梯度的标积。进而证明大气涡旋定理，位温的切变将导致涡旋运动或各种环流运动，速度涡度等于速度同位温相对梯度的矢积。展现了线性热力学在大气系统的应用前景。