四川地区多模式2m温度预报性能分析及集成方法研究

本文通过分析2017年9~12月四川地区ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting)细网格模式、GRAPES_GFS(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球模式和西南区域模式(South West Center-WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System, SWCWARMS)2m温度168h预报时效内的系统性偏差特征,采用滑动双权重平均法分别对三种模式温度预报产品进行偏差订正,并集成得到各时效2m温度的订正场,结果表明:(1)三种模式的预报存在明显的日变化,整体上EC模式的预报最优。(2)三种模式对于低温和高温的预报,在全省均大致呈现负的系统性误差,特别在高原及过渡区表现的尤为明显。(3)订正后三种模式的预报准确率显著提高,均方根误差减小1.4~2.5℃,大部分地区平均误差维持在±0.5℃之间,在系统性偏差较大的地区,订正效果更好。(4)两种集成方案预报结果接近,且均优于三种模式的订正预报。     

Latitudinal and Scan-dependent Biases of Microwave Humidity Sounder Measurements and Their Dependences on Cloud Ice Water Path

The relationship between differences in microwave humidity sounder(MHS)–channel biases which represent measured brightness temperatures and model-simulated brightness temperatures, and cloud ice water path(IWP) as well as the influence of the cloud liquid water path(LWP) on the relationship is examined. Seven years(2011–17) of NOAA-18 MHS-derived measured brightness temperatures and IWP/LWP data generated by the NOAA Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System are used. The Community Radiative Transfer Model, version2.2.4, is used to simulate model-simulated brightness temperatures using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data as background fields. Scan-angle deviations of the MHS window channel biases range from-1.7 K to1.0 K. The relationships between channels 2, 4, and 5 biases and scan angle are symmetrical about the nadir. The latitudedependent deviations of MHS window channel biases are positive and range from 0–7 K. For MHS non-window channels,the latitudinal deviations between measured brightness temperatures and model-simulated brightness temperatures are larger when the detection height is higher. No systematic warm or cold deviations are found in the global spatial distribution of difference between measured brightness temperatures and model-simulated brightness temperatures over oceans after removing scan-angle and latitudinal deviations. The corrected biases of five different MHS channels decrease differently with respect to the increase in IWP. This decrease is stronger when LWP values are higher.     

CWRF模式在中国夏季极端降水模拟的误差订正

利用1980—2015年6—8月我国逐日降水观测数据评估CWRF模式（Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model）多种参数化方案对我国夏季日降水的模拟能力,并考察累积概率变换偏差订正法（CDFt）的订正效果。通过将广义帕累托分布（GPD）引入到偏差订正模型中,提出针对极端降水的累积概率变换偏差订正法（XCDFt）,检验和评估其对极端降水订正的适用性。结果显示:CWRF模式微物理过程选用Morrison-aerosol参数化方案组合对我国降水场的模拟较好,CDFt订正效果良好;XCDFt偏差订正模型能够较好地提取模式建模与验证时期变化信号,订正后相比订正前与观测极端降水的概率分布更为接近;经过XCDFt订正后华南、华中和华北地区20年一遇的极端降水重现水平较模拟值更接近观测值,可为CWRF模式提高极端降水的业务预测水平提供参考。     

Macroscopic criteria for Green type porous materials with spheroidal voids: application to double porous materials

Combined effects of matrix plastic compressibility and void shape are investigated for ductile porous materials. To this end, a spheroidal volume containing a confocal spheroidal (prolate or oblate) void subjected to uniform strain rate boundary conditions has been first studied. A Green type matrix is chosen as a prototype for investigating effects of plastic compressibility. This is carried out by using a kinematics limit analysis theory from which a closed‐form expression of the macroscopic criterion is established for the considered class of materials. These results are then extended to ductile porous materials made up of a green matrix containing randomly oriented spheroidal voids. In the framework of a two‐step homogenization procedure, the obtained results are implemented to describe the macroscopic behavior of double porous materials involving spherical voids at the microscale and randomly oriented and distributed spheroidal voids at the mesoscale. For validation purpose, the new derived criteria are assessed and validated by comparing their predictions to available upper bounds and numerical data from literature. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A generalized conditional intensity measure approach and holistic ground‐motion selection

A generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach is proposed for use in the holistic selection of ground motions for any form of seismic response analysis. The essence of the method is the construction of the multivariate distribution of any set of ground‐motion intensity measures conditioned on the occurrence of a specific ground‐motion intensity measure (commonly obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). The approach therefore allows any number of ground‐motion intensity measures identified as important in a particular seismic response problem to be considered. A holistic method of ground‐motion selection is also proposed based on the statistical comparison, for each intensity measure, of the empirical distribution of the ground‐motion suite with the ‘target’ GCIM distribution. A simple procedure to estimate the magnitude of potential bias in the results of seismic response analyses when the ground‐motion suite does not conform to the GCIM distribution is also demonstrated. The combination of these three features of the approach make it entirely holistic in that: any level of complexity in ground‐motion selection for any seismic response analysis can be exercised; users explicitly understand the simplifications made in the selected suite of ground motions; and an approximate estimate of any bias associated with such simplifications is obtained. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic Approach of Coastal Defense Against Typhoon Attacks for Nuclear Power Plant

With the global wanning and sea level rising, it is widely recognized that there is an increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequency and intensity. The defenses code against typhoon attacks for nuclear power plant should be calibrated because of the increasing threat of typhoon disaster and severe consequences. This paper discusses the probabilistic approach of definitions about "probable maximum typhoon" and "probable maximum storm surge" in nuclear safety regulations of China and has made some design code calibrations by use of a newly proposed Double Layer Nested Multi-objective Probability Model (DLNMPM).     

电偶源频率电磁测深中比值视电阻率和阻抗相位的联合反演

本文论述了电偶源频率电磁测深中,利用比值视电阻率和相应阻抗相位进行联合反演的必要性和可能的应用前景及具体实施方法。理论模型和实际观测资料的反演试验表明这一联合反演是可行和有效的,且明显地优于视电阻率和阻抗相位的单参量反演。     

冀东水厂麻粒岩中辉石的穆斯堡尔谱研究

水厂麻粒岩中辉石的穆斯堡尔效应研究表明，斜方辉石的谱图为两组四极双峰，分别由Ｍ＿１和Ｍ＿２位上的高自旋态Ｆｅ￣（２＋）产生，而单斜辉石则为三组四极双峰，其中两组较强的双峰分别由Ｍ＿１和Ｍ＿２位上的Ｆｅ￣（２＋）产生，第二组弱双峰是由四面体和八面体位置上的Ｆｅ￣（３＋）共同产生的。水厂麻粒岩中辉石的有序程度高，并且斜方辉石有序度大大高于单斜辉石，而单斜辉石Ｍ＿１、Ｍ＿２位置的畸变程度高于斜方辉石。在压力相同的条件下，Ｆｅ￣（２＋）的有序度具有明显地温度效应，高温有利于Ｆｅ￣（２＋）做有序分布。     

A hypothesis for the seismogenesis of a double seismic zone

The seismogenesis of a double seismic zone, in particular the lower layer of a double seismic zone, has not been adequately explained in the literature. On the basis of seismic data and geothermal structures along three well-studied cross-sections in the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan subduction zones, we investigate the temperature/pressure conditions associated with seismogenic structures of the double seismic zones. the corresponding T/P loci seem to suggest that earthquakes observed in the lower layer and in the lower part (below approximately 130 ± 20 km) of the top layer of a double seismic zone were caused by metastable phase transition-a mechanism similar to that responsible for deep-focus earthquakes only at lower temperature/pressure conditions. Under this hypothesis, the wedge-shaped configuration of a double seismic zone is interpreted to represent the loci of the kinetic boundary of the phase transition. According to theoretical/experimental studies and the constraints imposed by our observations, a likely candidate for such a phase transition is the metastable Al-rich enstatite decomposing into the assemblage of Al-poor enstatite plus garnet. Earthquakes in the upper part of the top layer were most probably due to conventional mechanisms such as dehydration of subducted materials and/or facies change from basalt to eclogite. That the top layer involves more than one seismogenic mechanism is also implied by the distinct behaviour of seismicity in the vicinity of 130 ± 20 km. Because the presence of deviatoric stress is critical to the reaction rate of a metastable phase transition, it is inferred that single seismic zones are also caused by the same mechanisms, except that the implicit layer of a supposed double seismic zone is missing, due to the insufficient amount of appropriate metastable minerals or to the lack of appropriate deviatoric stresses in the source region.