确定大熊W型双星质量比的一个近似方法

本文给出了一个确定大熊W型双星质量比的近似方法。如果知道大熊W型双星的周期P、主子星表面有效温度T_p和主次食深差△m,可通过该文导出的一个公式算得质量比。对21个大熊W双星进行了计算,结果表明用该方法确定的质量比同分光或测光质量比符合较好。     

Figures of equilibrium in close binary systems

The equilibrium configurations of close binary systems are analyzed. The autogravitational, centrifugal and tidal potentials are expanded in Clairaut's coordinates. From the set of the total potential angular terms an integral equations system is derived. The reduction of them to ordinary differential equations and the determination of the boundary conditions allow a formulation of the problem in terms of a single variable.     

Light Curve Analysis of Early-Type Overcontact Systems

A method is presented to include irradiation effects in the modeling of over-contact binaries. The Roche potential is numerically modified in a way to account for mechanical effects of the mutual irradiation of the two binary components. The efficiency of radiative interaction is parametrized by means of the fraction of radiative over gravitational forces for each component of the binary. The modified Roche geometry is implemented as binary model in an eclipse light curve solution code, which is based on the general Wilson–Devinney scheme. As an example the method is applied to the early-type over-contact system V606 Cen.     

Binary progenitors of Supernovae

Supernovae of both Type I (hydrogen-poor) and Type II (hydrogen-rich) can be expected to occur among binary stars. Among massive stars (>10 M•), the companion makes it more difficult for the primary to develop an unstable core of >1.4.M• while still retaining the extended, hydrogen-rich envelope needed to make a typical Type II light curve. Among 1–10 M• stars, on the other hand, a companion plays a vital role in currently popular models for Type I events, by transferring material to the primary after it has become a stable white dwarf, and so driving it to conditions where either core collapse or explosive nuclear burning will occur. Several difficulties (involving nucleosynthesis, numbers and lifetimes of progenitors, the mass-transfer mechanism,etc.) still exist in these models. Some of them are overcome by a recent, promising scenario in which the secondary also evolves to a degenerate configuration, and the two white dwarfs spiral together to produce a hydrogen-free explosion, long after single stars of the same initial masses have ceased to be capable of fireworks.     

南海台风中期路径趋势判别预报方法

根据历史台风的相似路径将台风分为西行、西北沿海登陆和海上转向三类，并分析了各类500hPa高度场的特征。通过对台风位移与其相应的500hPa高度场的典型相关分析，提取了天气强迫信息，连同台风的一些气候学和持续性特征作为待选因子，采用多级逐步判别方法，建立台风72h路径趋势的各类判别函数。预报时，代入72h500hPa数值预报产品及气候持续性因子。通过对1990～1994年的独立台风进行了试报检验。结果表明，试报的准确率为88.8％，Heidke技巧得分为0．80。该方法为南海台风中期路径趋势预报提供了一种客观方法。     

Optimizing the reservoir operating rule curves by genetic algorithms

Genetic algorithms, founded upon the principle of evolution, are applicable to many optimization problems, especially popular for solving parameter optimization problems. Reservoir operating rule curves are the most common way for guiding and managing the reservoir operation. These rule curves traditionally are derived through intensive simulation techniques. The main aim of this study is to investigate the efficiency and effectiveness of two genetic algorithms (GAs), i.e., binary coded and real coded, to derive multipurpose reservoir operating rule curves. The curves are assumed to be piecewise linear functions where the coordinates of their inflection points are the unknowns and we want to optimize system performance. The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed methods are tested on the operation of the Shih‐Men reservoir in Taiwan. The current M‐5 operating curves of the Shih‐Men reservoir are also evaluated. The results show that the GAs provide an adequate, effective and robust way for searching the rule curves. Both sets of operating rule curves obtained from GAs have better performance, in terms of water release deficit and hydropower, than the current M‐5 operating rule curves, while the real‐coded GA is more efficient than the binary‐coded GA. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市建设对暴雨内涝空间分布的影响研究——以武汉市主城区为例

城市内涝灾害频繁,用地开发与空间扩张被普遍认为是其致因之一。对比武汉市遥感数据,1984—2017年,超过30%的自然水体被填占开发,城市建设开发活跃、填湖造陆强度大。论文以武汉市为例,采用二项Logistic模型,定量分析不同降雨强度情景下的内涝影响因素。研究表明,填湖造陆将极大地增加极端降雨情景下城市滨水区域的内涝风险。城市地形地势、排水管网条件、用地类型以及邻域用地结构等因素,也直接影响内涝风险。基于2种不同的用地开发策略,预测城市内涝风险结果显示,城市用地的不当开发将引致严重内涝风险。依据内涝风险的空间分布预测结果,论文提出了相应的改善策略,以为科学地制定防涝减灾规划提供参考。     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p＜0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions 1, 2 and 3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p＜0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all ＞0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Post-Common-Envelope Binaries with Distorted Secondaries

We will examine the properties of binary systems which have Roche lobe filling secondaries and white dwarf primaries as well as systems where the secondary is only partially filling its Roche lobe. We will also discuss observational properties such as ellipsoidal variations, light reprocessing and radial velocity measurements of the close binary systems BPM 71214, EC 13471-1258 and GD 245. The properties of BPM 71214 and EC 13471-1258 show that these systems may be pre-cataclysmic variables just prior to the onset of mass transfer or they may be hibernating novae. GD 245 is a pre-cataclysmic variable.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISW Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p＜0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions 1, 2 and 3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p＜0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all ＞0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers''D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.