渭干河流域"2002·7"特大洪水分析

渭干河是塔里木河流域第六大源流, 位于天山西部南麓, 渭干河干流起点有新疆最大的流域性控制工程--克孜尔水库. 2002年7月下旬天山中西部山区出现大暴雨(雪)过程, 渭干河流域山区降水持续时间长达30 h以上, 山区降水量50 mm左右, 导致5条支流和渭干河干流出现有水文记录以来的最大洪峰, 流量超过警戒流量和危险流量的2～3.5倍, 暴雨(雪)过程结束之后, 融雪型洪峰长时间居高不下. 洪水过程中, 各支流以及暴雨与融雪等多种洪峰遭遇现象很明显. 克孜尔水库入库洪峰流量达3 660 m3*s-1, 经水库调洪错峰, 出库峰值流量为1 000 m3*s-1, 削峰率72.7%.     

浙江桐庐晚奥陶世晚期沉积层序和沉积环境分析

文昌组上段顶部是一套潮汐层理非常发育的泥质砂岩或砂质泥岩,存在双向交错层理,层面有雨痕,应为潮坪沉积。潮坪沉积由小型层序构成,小型层序又是由砂、泥质单层组成。砂质单层底部通常为岩性突变面或侵蚀面,砂质纹层较厚,其中可见对称波痕或泥砾;向上砂质纹层变薄,过渡到泥质单层。砂质单层形成于暴风浪时期,泥质单层是风浪衰减后恢复正常的潮汐沉积。因此,小型层序从成因上说是一风暴层序。碎屑成份、砾石成份分析表明沉积物均来自华夏古陆的沉积岩和变质岩基底。物源一致,岩层产状变化不大,反映文昌组沉积环境稳定。岩性、粒度分析表明文昌组是一向上变细、由浅海高能环境向近岸低能环境过渡的沉积层序。文昌组下段为浅海砂岩沉积,上段顶部为潮坪沉积。二者之间是一套夹砾岩透镜体的泥质粉细砂岩,其沉积环境应介于浅海和滨岸之间,为水下岸坡沉积。砾岩层只是大的沉积旋回中出现的事件性水下冲积物。     

Water and sediment outbursts from advanced Franz Josef Glacier,New Zealand

The Franz Josef Glacier, Westland, New Zealand, has a history of catastrophic sediment‐laden outburst ?oods associated with extreme rainfall events when the glacier toe is advanced over its own sediments. Consideration of these events and inspection of recent sediment deposits suggest that there are three distinct modes of outburst. The ?rst is associated with fans fed by over?ow along the glacier margin. As the glacier has advanced across its own fore?eld gravels, it is inferred that the primary drainage conduit has developed a reach of negative slope. In high ?ows massive boulders can block the conduit, trapping lesser clasts. The resulting backup of water causes over?ows through marginal moulins, producing the fan type of deposit. The second type of outburst deposits massive imbricated boulders at a greater or lesser distance from the glacier portal. In this case, pressure buildup drives the blockage out of the portal where the boulders deposit. Smaller materials are generally carried away. The third type consists of very shallow ?ows, and produces massive gravel deposits of uncertain provenance. In this condition, the excess pressure in the conduit results in slight uplift of the glacier and widespread discharge of water and sediment below the glacier snout; gravels and smaller sediments are laid down in a massive deposit across the fore?eld. The massive, boulder‐veneered deposit from the December 1995 outburst is interpreted in the light of the above mechanisms as a hyperconcentrated ?ow deposit from hydraulic jacking, overlain by boulders emplaced by a subsequent conduit outburst. A possible association of outbursts with the present advanced position of the glacier is suggested. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying Storm Tide Risk in Cairns

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)gave rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of naturalhazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. It waswidely recognised that in order to evaluate risk treatment strategies it was necessaryto `measure' the level of risk that already existed and the level of risk that would beencountered with the treatment strategy(s) in place.This paper outlines the methodology developed under the AGSO (now GeoscienceAustralia) Cities Project to quantify the risk associated with storm tide inundation. It includes the methodology for `measuring' the level of community exposure to storm tide hazards and the methodology for `measuring' community vulnerability. The Far North Queensland city of Cairns is used as the case study to demonstrate the application of these methods.     

Impact of horizontal resolution on prediction of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal using a regional weather prediction model

The present study is carried out to examine the performance of a regional atmospheric model in forecasting tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Two cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during the years 1995 and 1997, are simulated using a regional weather prediction model with two horizontal resolutions of 165 km and 55 km. The model is found to perform reasonably well towards simulation of the storms. The structure, intensity and track of the cyclones are found to be better simulated by finer resolution of the model as compared to the coarse resolution. Rainfall amount and its distribution are also found to be sensitive to the model horizontal resolution. Other important fields, viz., vertical velocity, horizontal divergence and horizontal moisture flux are also found to be sensitive to model horizontal resolution and are better simulated by the model with finer horizontal grids.     

Community Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones: Cairns, 1996–2000

This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal `pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive `post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experiencedthe direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted andfocussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available withinthe community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual'sperception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparednessbehaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and – in extreme circumstances – life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards.     

Mid-holocene climate change in Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana

Lake Bosumtwi is one of the most widely studied palaeoclimate archives in West Africa. Results from numerous AMS ¹⁴C dates of samples from four piston cores from Lake Bosumtwi show that an abrupt sedimentary transition from a mid-Holocene sapropel to calcareous laminated muds occurred at about 3200 cal yr B.P. High-resolution analyses of the nitrogen isotopic composition of organic matter across this transition confirm its abrupt nature, and suggest that the change may signal a step toward increased aridity and intensified surface winds that affected western equatorial Africa from Ghana to the Congo basin. Northern and Eastern Africa experienced a similar abrupt shift toward aridity during the late Holocene, but at about 5000 cal yr B.P., a difference in timing that illustrates the regional nature of climate changes during the Holocene and the importance of feedback mechanisms in regulating Holocene climate variability. Furthermore, an abrupt change at about 3000 cal yr B.P. occurs at several sites adjacent to the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, which may hint at major changes in the surface temperatures of the tropical Atlantic and/or Pacific at this time.     

影响韶关的热带气旋及其暴雨预报

统计1965年以来影响韶关的热带气旋发现，韶关出现暴雨不仅与热带气旋的路径、强度有关，而且与大气层结稳定度或冷空气的相互作用密切相关。由此结合实况、应用数值预报产品来制作热带气旋暴雨24小时预报。     

北京一次大风和强降水天气过程形成机理的数值模拟

利用3维强风暴冰雹分档模式(IPA—HBM)对2001年8月23日北京的一次伴有大风、暴雨和冰雹的强对流天气过程进行模拟和分析，并与部分观测资料进行了比较分析。结果表明，该模式对此次强风暴的生命史、降水分布、降雹的大小等要素做了较好的模拟，并能够模拟出伴随强风暴过程所产生的强下沉气流和及地面强风速切变(下去暴流)。从云微物理学角度分析了此次局地性大风的形成原因，认为由高空冰雹粒子的拖曳产生的负浮力作用是促发强下沉气流产生的主要原因，其次是冰雹的融化和雨水蒸发冷却对下沉气流起加速作用，冰雹的拖曳和融化作用对下沉气流具有决定性作用。强风暴所产生的爆发性强下沉气流最终导致了局地大风的形成。     

滞后平均法（LAF）在热带气旋路径集合预报中的应用

本文用-正压模式，采用滞后平均法(LAF)对2000年热带气旋进行路径集合预报试验，并与基于热带气旋初始结构扰动的集合预报方法进行了比较分析，结果表明LAF方法对热带气旋路径预报具有较好的改进作用。但LAF的集合预报效果受模式本身误差的影响，在完美模式的假设下，LAF集合预报相对于控制试验的技巧水平20～40％。