兰州城市建筑的空间分布

利用高精度卫星影象和大规模实地调查方法获取数据,采用GIS手段、景观生态学和数理统计等方法,利用建筑占地面积和建筑面积等指标分别研究了兰州市各区、功能区、各组团、各圈层现状建筑的空间分布与组合,以及城市资产、土地强度的空间变化规律。结果表明：住宅、工业、商务三类建筑是兰州市建筑的绝对核心类型,空间分布均衡而广泛,且工业建筑向外围迁移过程中存在全域分散化特征：兰州市各区建筑用途复杂程度、多样性和均匀性由中心到外围大致逐步降低,优势度逐渐增加,组团分布特征显著而强烈;建筑更新具有明显的全域化和快速推进特征;建筑用途空间组合、建筑容积率由中心到外围的空间波动性较为显著：建筑用途多样性、建筑容积率等指标高或低的“插花”分布现象相当显著;住宅、工业建筑更新与空间分化是城市建筑更新、建筑用途空间分化与组合及其变迁的核心动力因素,单位制模式的影响依旧强烈和深刻。     

川中高石梯-磨溪地区震旦系灯影组碳酸盐岩岩石类型及分布规律

四川盆地川中地区震旦系气藏储量规模大,储层分布面积广。在Folk(1959)碳酸盐岩分类方案与张荫本等(1996)对粘结岩分类方案研究的基础之上,结合四川盆地震旦系灯影组的具体情况,提出新的划分方案。研究表明:(1)高石梯-磨溪地区震旦系灯影组碳酸盐岩岩石类型可分为3个亚类,10个微类。该方案不同之处在于把凝块(石)云岩归位颗粒岩,同时根据藻的形态把藻云岩进一步细分;(2)沉积岩类的发育和分布受沉积层序的控制。海侵体系域(TST)沉积阶段,以泥-粉晶云岩、微生物岩等正化学岩沉积为主。高位体系域(HST)沉积阶段,以凝块云岩、砂屑云岩等异化颗粒岩沉积为主。纵向上,岩性具有从暗色泥晶云岩→藻云岩→颗粒云岩→浅色泥晶云岩演化的特征,即泻湖亚相→藻丘亚相→颗粒滩亚相→台坪亚相的规律;(3)凝块云岩、砂屑云岩等颗粒岩是主要的储集岩类;(4)灯影组碳酸盐岩不同岩类的发育和分布对储层的发育起到控制作用。对灯影组的油气勘探,除了对岩溶作用的研究之外,还需要重视沉积古地貌、岩相展布特征的分析,有助于有效的预测灯影组储层"甜点区"。     

福建地区地震震源深度特征的统计分析

根据福建数字地震台网记录的地震震源深度资料, 统计分析了1998年7月至2008年6月期间福建及邻区M_L≥1.0并有震源深度参数且观测精度为1类地震1431次。 采用0.4°×0.4°网格和以0.2°为滑动步长, 统计了网格内地震的平均深度, 并绘制了平均深度等值线图。 分析结果表明: ① 福建地区地震震源深度总体上呈现东南深、 西北浅的特征, 东南沿海地区平均震源深度大于14 km, 西北地区平均震源深度小于10 km; ② 平均震源深度等值线展布大致呈NE向, 在福建南部地区平均震源深度在沿NE向展布基础上, 还受到NW向断裂控制, 断裂构造通过的地区平均震源深度相对较深; ③ 福建地区地震动力成因与中国大陆其他地区有所不同。     

云南M≥7．6级地震伤亡因素的探讨

通过云南M≥7．6级地震震亡分布的统计,研究大地震的伤亡分布规律,寻找影响伤亡的主要原因。结果表明,震亡人数主要分布在Ⅷ度以上烈度区,这一区域的震亡人数占震亡总数的94％以上,其中极震区占到70％以上。调查分析认为：在震级相近的情况下,震区地质构造、地形地貌是影响地震烈度的因素;房屋、人口密度、发震时间是震亡人数的重要影响因素;在未来的大地震中,人口密度大的断裂带及其附近是应急救援和医疗救护的重点区域,在断裂带及其附近盆地内的震亡人数比非盆地震亡人数多,要投入更多的救援和医疗救护力量。     

基于观测系统模拟试验的海表气象观测站点布局方案研究

为了科学设计黄渤海海洋气象边界层观测站网并研究观测网布局对数值天气预报模式的影响,本文采用模式误差、海洋气象要素特征区域资料统计分析和观测系统模拟试验（OSSE）方法,根据边界层雾、层云降水、小风与中等风速天气条件设计布局方案,并分析站点观测要素对数值预报模式的要素预报的影响。模拟试验数据使用了每6 h NCEP再分析资料FNL（NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis data）、NCEP每天平均的高分辨率海温资料RTG_SST（Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature）和石油平台、浮标站等每小时实况观测资料,评估了黄渤海海洋气象站网布局各个方案的优缺点。评估结果表明,湿度和风的要素预报受实况风向风速条件影响,偏东和偏北风个例湿度要素预报较好。然而,在偏南中等风速个例中,风场预报要素更接近实况。温度场的分析综合结果显示,在海气相互作用影响较大的天气过程中,特征区域布站能明显提高温度要素的预报准确率。最后,综合分析多项模拟试验的结果,给出了改进数值预报准确率的海洋布站建议。     

Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York,UK (1200–2000)

Abstract

The reassessment of flood risk at York, UK, is pertinent in light of major flooding in November 2000, and heightened concerns of a perceived increase in flooding nationally. Systematic flood level readings from 1877 and a wealth of documentary records dating back as far as 1263 AD give the City of York a long and rich history of flood records. This extended flood record provides an opportunity to reassess estimates of flood frequency over a time scale not normally possible within flood frequency analysis. This paper re-evaluates flood frequency at York, considering the strengths and weaknesses in estimates resulting from four contrasting methods of analysis and their corresponding data: (a) single-site analysis of gauged annual maxima; (b) pooled analysis of multi-site gauged annual maxima; (c) combined analysis of systematic annual maxima augmented with historical peaks, and (d) analysis of only the very largest peaks using a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Use of the historical information was found to yield risk estimates which were lower and considered to be more credible than those achieved using gauged records alone.

Citation Macdonald, N. & Black, A. R. (2010) Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York, UK (1200–2000). Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1152–1162.     

Pipe Service Age Effect on Chlorine Decay in Drinking‐Water Transmission and Distribution Systems

Maintaining acceptable quality of water transported in the transmission and distribution system requires the chlorination of water beyond the treatment plant. While flowing through pipes, the chlorine concentration decreases for different reasons. Reaction with the pipe material itself and the reaction with both the biofilm and tubercles formed on the pipe wall are known as pipe wall demand. This varies with pipe parameters. The aim of this paper was to assess the impact of the service age of pipes on the chlorine wall decay constant. One hundred and fifty three pipe sections of different sizes and four different pipe materials were collected and tested for their chlorine first‐order wall decay constants. The results showed that pipe service age was an important factor that must not be ignored. For the range of the 55 years of pipe service age used in this study, the change in the wall decay ranged from 8 to 531% of the corresponding values in the recently installed pipes. The effect of service age on the wall decay constants was most evident in steel pipes. Other important findings were reached.     

Distribution and abundance of thaliaceans in the northwest continental shelf of South China Sea, with response to environmental factors driven by monsoon

The distribution and abundance of thaliaceans were studied in relation to physical and biological variables during summer and winter in the northwest continental shelf of South China Sea. Based on the topography and water mass of the surveyed region, it was divided into three subregions: region I (onshore waters of the east Leizhou Peninsula), region II (onshore waters of the east and southeast Hainan Island) and region III (offshore waters from Leizhou Peninsula to Hainan Island). During summer due to a strong southwest monsoon, a cold eddy and coastal upwelling dominated in regions I and II, respectively, whereas the onshore and offshore waters were vertically mixed during winter due to a strong northeast monsoon. A total of 18 thaliacean species (including 3 subspecies) were collected. The mean species richness was higher in summer compared to winter, with the occurrence of higher values during summer and winter at region II and region III, respectively. The average thaliacean abundance is also higher in summer than in winter, with higher values at region I in summer and no significant difference among three subregions in winter. Doliolum denticulatum and Thalia democratica were the dominant species during summer and winter. The results suggested that the seasonal and spatial distribution of thaliacean richness was considered to be the result of physical factors such as temperature and ocean current in summer and winter. Spatial distribution of thaliacean abundance was affected by chlorophyll a concentration increased by the occurrence of coastal upwelling and cold eddy in summer. Southwest and northeast monsoons are shown to play an important role in shaping the distribution of species richness and abundance of thaliaceans in the northwest continental shelf of South China Sea.     

A note of caution when interpreting parameters of the distribution of excesses

In climatology and hydrology, univariate Extreme Value Theory has become a powerful tool to model the distribution of extreme events. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is routinely applied to model excesses in space or time by letting the two GPD parameters depend on appropriate covariates. Two possible pitfalls of this strategy are the modeling and the interpretation of the scale and shape GPD parameters estimates which are often and incorrectly viewed as independent variables. In this note we first recall a statistical technique that makes the GPD estimates less correlated within a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation approach. In a second step we propose novel reparametrizations for two method-of-moments particularly popular in hydrology: the Probability Weighted Moment (PWM) method and its generalized version (GPWM). Finally these three inference methods (ML, PWM and GPWM) are compared and discussed with respect to the issue of correlations.     

宜春地区主要气象灾害分布规律及成因分析

利用1959-2008 年气象观测资料和1949-2008 年气象灾情资料,对发生在宜春地区的暴雨和洪涝、大风、冰雹、干旱、高温、低温和冷冻、雷电等7 类主要气象灾害的分布规律及成因进行了分类分析.结果表明,宜春地区每年都会出现不同程度的洪涝灾害,重度洪涝灾害为3-5 a 一遇.东部和西部各有1 个大风多发区;大风7-...