Preventive disaster management of extreme natural events

Several recent extreme natural events resulted in great humanitarian tragedies because of weak preventive disaster management. Here we analyze several factors (natural, economical, political, awareness, and preparedness) that brought about the humanitarian tragedies of the early 21st century. We discuss then the role of science in the preventive disaster management of extreme natural events.     

Remanence magnetic records of the recent 130 000 years from the sediments in Nansha area, South China Sea

Two hundred and eighty-one samples, collected from drilling core NS93-5 located in the Nansha area of the South China Sea, were used to study the magnetic characteristics of the sediments in the sea. Detailed rock magnetic results show that the magnetic minerals of the sediments were dominated by ferrimagnetic minerals such as magnetite, and a small contribution of hematite and maghematite also existed. The sediments recorded three negative values of remanence magnetic inclination at the depth: 191–206 cm, 232–248 cm, and 292–308 cm. The corresponding ages of these negative values were 65.87–68.7 ka B.P., 73.4–80.8 ka B.P. and 108.4–113.6 ka B.P., respectively, according to stratigraphy of oxygen isotope, ¹⁴C, and the age of a volcanic ash layer. The negative value during 108.4–113.6 ka B.P. may be the record of a Blake event in the sediments of the Nansha area. Translated from Marine Geology & Quaternary Geology, 2006, 26(1): 59–66 [译自: 海洋地质与第四纪地质]     

大地震专题信息系统SEIS的开发与应用

大地震专题信息系统(Significant Events Information System,SEIS)是一个针对单个大地震的综合性专题信息管理软件.通过其数据存储子系统保存数据,通过其数据管理子系统处理和管理数据,通过其数据服务子系统提供数据.较之国内外同类软件,具有信息的集成性、资料的区域性和数据的实用性等主要特点.随着SEIS系统在实际工作中的全面应用,大地震专题信息数据逐步实现了存储的规模化、管理的科学化与自动化以及服务的多样化,并积累了丰富的资料,提高了数据服务的质量.     

长白山天池火山区的谐频事件

通过对长白山天池火山地区2002、2003和2005年夏季3期流动地震观测资料的频谱分析,发现火山口附近存在一种在频率域中形态比较特殊的地震事件,其频谱由1组等间隔的谱峰构成,峰值振幅随频率缓慢变化,形态与时间域中的谐波信号相似,我们把这种地震事件称为谐频事件。在3个夏季的流动观测中,共发现38个谐频事件,且这些事件大多与震群活动有关。分析表明,谐频地震频谱中的谐波现象与震源有关,可能是岩石破裂过程中,在特殊激发条件下,裂缝壁和裂缝内部岩浆或热液的压力扰动相互作用产生的。我们认为近年来长白山天池地震活动的突然增加和谐频事件的出现与深部岩浆的侵入活动有关     

Tectonic thermal history and its significance on the formation of oil and gas accumulation and mineral deposit in Ordos Basin

The analyzing data on stratigraphic temperature measurement , thermal conductivity of the strata and radioactive heat production rate show that the present average geothermal gradient in the Ordos Basin is 2.93℃/100 m, and the average heat flow value is 61.78 mW/m2, which belongs to the mesothermal basin, and the value of the present geothermal gradient and heat flow in the east is higher than that in the west. The sandstone radioactive heat production rate of Zhiluo Group in Dongsheng Uranium deposits of Yimeng uplift is obviously higher in the mudstone, indicating that there exists a uranium anomaly. Based on studies of the present thermal field of the basin, the late-Mesozoic paleotemperature and paleogeothermal gradient are determined by using different kinds of paleotemperature methods. According to the anomaly of the late-Mesozoic paleotemperature gradient and magmatic event age, there was a tectonic thermal event in the early Cretaceous epoch of late-Mesozoic. This article rebuilds tectonic thermal history of different tectonic units by thermal history simulation using basin simulating software. The evolution of oil-gas and coal, and accumulation (mineralization) of mineral uranium are all controlled by the tectonic thermal history in the Ordos basin, especially by the tectonic thermal event that happened in the late Mesozoic. For both the gas source rocks of upper Paleozoic group and lower paleozoic group, the gas was largely generated in the early Cretaceous epoch of the late Mesozoic. The main petroleum generation period for Yanchang Group in Triassic system is the early Cretaceous epoch too, and the highest thermal maturity of the coal of Permo-Carboniferous, Triassic, and Jurassic reaches is the early Cretaceous epoch also. Early Cretaceous epoch is still one of the most important mineralizing periods of uranium.     

The Effects of Model Resolution on the Simulation of Regional Climate Extreme Events

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3 (MM5V3) was used to simulate extreme heavy rainfall events over the Yangtze River Basin in June 1999. The effects of model's horizontal and vertical resolution on the extreme climate events were investigated in detail. In principle, the model was able to characterize the spatial distribution of monthly heavy precipitation. The results indicated that the increase in horizontal resolution could reduce the bias of the modeled heavy rain and reasonably simulate the change of daily precipitation during the study period. A finer vertical resolution led to obviously improve rainfall simulations with smaller biases, and hence, better resolve heavy rainfall events. The increase in both horizontal and vertical resolution could produce better predictions of heavy rainfall events. Not only the rainfall simulation altered in the cases of different horizontal and vertical grid spacing, but also other meteorological fields demonstrated diverse variations in terms of resolution change in the model. An evident improvement in the simulated sea level pressure resulted from the increase of horizontal resolution, but the simulation was insensitive to vertical grid spacing. The increase in vertical resolution could enhance the simulation of surface temperature as well as atmospheric circulation at low levels, while the simulation of circulation at middle and upper levels were found to be much less dependent on changing resolution. In addition, cumulus parameterization schemes showed high sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Different convective schemes exhibited large discrepancies in rainfall simulations with regards to changing resolution. The percentage of convective precipitation in the Grell scheme increased with increasing horizontal resolution. In contrast, the Kain-Fritsch scheme caused a reduced ratio of convective precipitation to total rainfall accumulations corresponding to increasing horizontal resolution.     

东北地区降水日数、强度和持续时间的年代际变化

利用93站1951—2002年逐日降水资料，分析了东北地区不同强度降水事件的时空演变特征及其对旱涝的影响。结果表明:52年来，东北地区小雨事件对年降水量的贡献率呈显著增加趋势，中雨的贡献率略为减少，大雨和暴雨的贡献率变化不大；东北年总雨日减少趋势非常明显，雨日的减少主要体现在小雨日数的减少；年降水强度表现为明显的增强趋势，主要体现为小雨和暴雨强度增强；20世纪80年代中期之前多小雨事件，80年代中期之后多中雨以上强度的降水，特别是90年代中期之后多暴雨事件。在显著变暖的20世纪90年代，降水日数明显减少，但暴雨日数基本不变，强度明显增强。对东北地区降水量、降水变幅、降水事件的变化特征分析表明:该区域降水有向不均衡、极端化发展的趋势，旱涝灾害也有加重趋势。     

气候异常对2007年度许昌小麦生产的影响

分析了2007年度气候异常引起的农业气象灾害和病虫害及其对小麦生育的影响，并提出了应对气候异常对许昌小麦生产影响的对策。     

我国近46年来的寒潮时空变化与冬季增暖

使用中国气象局资料中心整编的572个站点1960年1月1日到2005年12月31日日最低温度、日平均气压、日平均风速和北极涛动(AO) 指数等气象要素，从一个新的角度分析了我国寒潮时空变化与冬季增暖的联系。寒潮爆发以降温、升压和大风天气为主要特征。定义1日和2日降温达到10℃以上的降温事件为寒潮，大于20℃为极端寒潮。发生在我国的寒潮以北方(35°N以北)最多，其次是中国东部的江南地区。东北的寒潮始于10月，而河套和江南的寒潮在4月份比较频繁。把10月到次年4月寒潮频繁活动的时段确定为冬季风时期。在所有的降温事件中，只有不到1/3的事件伴随有升压和大风天气。过去的45个冬季风期间，寒潮和极端寒潮事件普遍减少，我国新疆、华北、东北和华东减少最为显著，减少的最大幅度达到1～2次/10 a。降温事件、升压频次和大风频次也都在减少。AO指数升高表征了西风带上天气尺度斜压波动的减少和减弱，从而导致我国中高纬度寒潮事件的减少。降温频次的减少在一定程度上导致了冬季最低温度平均值的升高，形成了持续的暖冬。     

基于地震同相轴预测的剩余静校正方法研究

为解决野外地表参数测定不准确等因素引起的地震数据剩余静校正问题,通过平面波分解滤波器计算时空变地震同相轴局部倾角,利用局部倾角与同相轴的时空预测量之间的关系计算剩余静校正量,在剩余静校正量计算所需局部平面波方程求解过程中,加入时间方向倾角为常数的整形正则化约束条件,以保证剩余静校正方法的准确性。结果表明,基于地震同相轴预测的剩余静校正方法可以有效地处理共中心点道集数据的剩余静校正问题,同时本方法具有一定的抗噪能力,为实际资料处理提供了较好的适用性。