Stochastic bivariate time series models of waves in the North Sea and their application in simulation-based design

In this paper, we present and evaluate three long-term wave models for application in simulation-based design of ships and marine structures. Designers and researchers often rely on historical weather data as a source for ocean area characteristics based on hindcast datasets or in-situ measurements. The limited access and size of historical datasets reduces repeatability of simulations and analyses, making it difficult to assess the sampling variability of performance and loads on marine vessels and structures. Markov, VAR and VARMA wave models, producing independent long-term time series of significant wave height (H_s) and spectral peak period (T_p), is presented as possible solutions to this problem. The models are tested and compared by addressing how the models affect interpretation of design concepts and the ability to replicate statistical and physical characteristics of the wave process. Our results show that the VAR and VARMA models perform sufficiently in describing design performance, but does not capture the physical process fully. The Markov model is found to perform worst of the tested models in the applied tests, especially for measures covering several consecutive sea states.     

联合GPS和GRACE数据分析陕甘宁地区地表垂直形变

采用甘肃省CORS网和中国大陆构造环境监测网络中共48个台站的GPS观测数据，解算得到观测台站的垂直位移，并与GRACE时变重力场Mascon模型解CSR RL05M数据计算得到的垂直形变进行比较，分析区域地表垂直形变特征。结果表明，研究区内台站垂直形变存在局部特征，甘肃庆阳和平凉地区垂直形变与其他地区存在明显差异，相关系数、均方根减少量和周年信号减少量均高于其他地区；扣除趋势项后，观测台站GPS垂直位移与GRACE垂直形变时间序列相关系数均值为0.72，GPS和GRACE周年信号振幅均值分别为6.00 mm和3.70 mm，周年信号减少量和均方根误差减少量均值分别为0.51和0.29；研究区内GPS垂直位移和GRACE垂直形变时间序列一致性较强，GRACE垂直形变能有效解释50%以上的GPS垂直位移周年信号，GPS垂直位移时间序列包含的非构造形变中平均约29%来源于环境负载变化所引起的负荷形变。     

HHT-EEMD用于IGS站高程时间序列分析

利用经验模态分解（EMD）和整体经验模态分解（EEMD）方法，将BJFS站2000~2015年高程时间序列进行分解，发现其不仅存在1 a、0.5 a、0.25 a、2个月、1个月以及长周期等周期项，还存在以往方法很难探测出来的近似2 a周期信号。与EMD分解结果对比，整体经验模态分解可以明显减弱模式混叠现象。对各分量进行Hilbert 变换（HHT），得到时间-频率-能量的Hilbert 频谱图。结果表明，年周期和2 a周期变化是高程运动的主要贡献项。利用小波变换方法对比验证EEMD的分解结果表明，与小波分析相比，EEMD重构信号与高程序列差异的RMS更小，证明了HHT-EEMD方法在数据资料分析过程中的有效性。对环境负载及GRACE负载造成的测站位移进行功率谱分析得出，环境负载确实会造成IGS站高程时间序列的1 a、0.5 a以及季节性运动，GRACE负载还验证了2 a信号的存在。     

Analysis of rectangular piles subjected to lateral loads in nonhomogeneous soil using a Winkler model approach

An analytical approach using a Winkler model based on two lateral soil displacement components in a three‐dimensional soil is investigated to provide analytical solutions of horizontal response of a rectangular pile subjected to lateral loads in nonhomogeneous soil. The two lateral displacement components of a soil surrounding the rectangular pile are represented by the Fourier series of displacement potential functions in the elastic three‐dimensional analysis. The lateral stiffness coefficient of the rectangular pile shaft in nonhomogeneous soil is derived from the rocking stiffness coefficient taking into account rocking rotation of a rigid pile shaft. The relationship between horizontal displacement, rotation, moment, and shear force for the rectangular pile subjected to horizontal loads in nonhomogeneous soil is obtainable in the form of the recurrence equation. The formulation of lateral displacement and rotation for a rectangular pile subjected to lateral loads on the pile base in nonhomogeneous soil is proposed by taking into account Mindlin's equation and the equivalent thickness for soil layers in the equivalent elastic method. The difference of lateral behavior between square and circular piles subjected to lateral loads is insignificant. The effect of aspect ratio of the rectangular pile on the lateral behavior is great for the lower stiffness ratio between pile and soil and the larger length–equivalent diameter ratio. The effect of the value of Poisson's ratio of soil on lateral stiffness coefficient is relatively small except Poisson's ratio close to 0.5. The comparison of the results calculated by the current method for a rectangular pile subjected to lateral loads in nonhomogeneous soil has shown good agreement with those obtained from the analytical methods and the finite element method. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detection of spatio-temporal evolutions on multi-annual satellite image time series: A clustering based approach

The expansion of satellite technologies makes remote sensing data abundantly available. While the access to such data is no longer an issue, the analysis of this kind of data is still challenging and time consuming. In this paper, we present an object-oriented methodology designed to handle multi-annual Satellite Image Time Series (SITS). This method has the objective to automatically analyse a SITS to depict and characterize the dynamic of the areas (the way that the land cover of the areas evolve over time). First, it identifies the spatio-temporal entities (reference objects) to be tracked. Second, the evolution of such entities is described by means of a graph structure and finally it groups together spatio-temporal entities that evolve similarly. The analysis were performed on three study areas to highlight inter (among the study areas) and intra (inside a study area) similarity by following the evolution of the underlying phenomena. The analysis demonstrate the benefits of our methodology. Moreover, we also stress how an expert can exploit the extracted knowledge to pinpoint relevant landscape evolutions in the multi-annual time series and how to make connections among different study areas.     

Improved spatial delineation of streambed properties and water fluxes using distributed temperature sensing

A new method was developed for analysing and delineating streambed water fluxes, flow conditions and hydraulic properties using coiled fibre‐optic distributed temperature sensing or closely spaced discrete temperature sensors. This method allows for a thorough treatment of the spatial information embedded in temperature data by creating a matrix visualization of all possible sensor pairs. Application of the method to a 5‐day field dataset reveals the complexity of shallow streambed thermal regimes. To understand how velocity estimates are affected by violations of assumptions of one‐dimensional, saturated, homogeneous flow and to aid in the interpretation of field observations, the method was also applied to temperature data generated by numerical models of common field conditions: horizontal layering, presence of lateral flow and variable streambed saturation. The results show that each condition creates a distinct signature visible in the triangular matrices. The matrices are used to perform a comparison of the behaviour of one‐dimensional analytical heat‐tracing models. The results show that the amplitude ratio‐based method of velocity calculation leads to the most reliable estimates. The minimum sensor spacing required to obtain reliable velocity estimates with discrete sensors is also investigated using field data. The developed method will aid future heat‐tracing studies by providing a technique for visualizing and comparing results from fibre‐optic distributed temperature sensing installations and testing the robustness of analytical heat‐tracing models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于NDVI时间序列数据的江西省水稻种植制度变化研究

利用Savitzky-Golay滤波对覆盖江西省范围的SPOT VGT NDVI时间序列数据进行平滑处理的基础上,结合坡度数据,通过非监督分类的方法提取了江西省2000、2005和2010年水稻种植范围,并根据NDVI的年内动态变化,从水稻种植范围、水稻生长季起始时间、水稻复种指数和NDVI最大振幅等分析了江西省水稻种植和生长情况,探讨2000~2010年江西省水稻生产的变化。     

L1范数与IQR统计量组合的GNSS坐标序列粗差探测算法

GNSS坐标时间序列中不可避免地含有粗差,未剔除的粗差将会导致参数估计有偏。因此,粗差探测与剔除是GNSS坐标序列分析中一项重要的数据预处理工作。针对GNSS坐标时间序列特点,提出了一种将L1范数(L1-norm)估计与四分位距统计量IQR(interquartile range)组合的移动开窗粗差探测算法,称之为L1_Mod IQR。该方法的主要思想是,首先利用L1范数估计得到较"真实"的残差,然后再对残差采用IQR统计量进行粗差探测。将L1_Mod IQR法与"3σ"法、基于最小二乘的τ检验法等粗差探测算法进行了模拟计算与对比,验证了该算法的有效性。进一步采用L1_Mod IQR算法对中国区域10个IGS站的高程时间序列进行了分析,结果表明中国区域IGS站高程序列的粗差剔除率最小为0.1%,最大为2.6%。并且以WUHN站为例与SOPAC提供的结果进行了对比,结果表明SOPAC提供的"Clean"数据仍含有大量的粗差,而L1_Mod IQR算法能够有效地剔除粗差。     

Significance of shallow core transects for reef models and sea‐level curves,Heron Reef,Great Barrier Reef

A sequence of shallow reef cores from Heron Reef, Great Barrier Reef, provides new insights into Holocene reef growth models. Isochron analysis of a leeward core transect suggests that the north‐western end of Heron Reef reached current sea‐level by ca 6·5 kyr bp and then prograded leeward at a rate of ca 19·6 m/kyr between 5·1 kyr and 4·1 kyr bp (pre‐1950) to the present reef margin. A single short core on the opposing margin of the reef is consistent with greater and more recent progradation there. Further to the east, one windward core reached modern sea‐level by ca 6·3 kyr bp , suggesting near ‘keep‐up’ behaviour at that location, but the opposing leeward margin behind the lagoon reached sea‐level much more recently. Hence, Heron Reef exhibited significantly different reef growth behaviour on different parts of the same margin. Mean reef accretion rates calculated from within 20 m of one another in the leeward core transect varied between ca 2·9 m and 4·7 m/kyr depending on relative position in the prograding wedge. These cores serve as a warning regarding the use of isolated cores to inform reef growth rates because apparent aggradation at any given location on a reef varies depending on its location relative to a prograding margin. Only transects of closely spaced cores can document reef behaviour adequately so as to inform reef growth models and sea‐level curves. The cores also emphasize potential problems in U‐series dates for corals within a shallow (ca 1·5 m) zone beneath the reef flat. Apparent age inversions restricted to that active diagenetic zone may reflect remobilization and concentration of Th in irregularly distributed microbialites or biofilms that were missed during sample vetting. Importantly, the Th‐containing contaminant causes ages to appear too old, rather than too young, as would be expected from younger cement.     

年最大值抽样估算的暴雨频率设计值的低估问题探讨

由年最大值抽样（AMS）和年超大值抽样（AES）的基本理论及重现期（RP）的定义可知,AMS并不符合以“事件”为基础的重现期的定义.以美国西南半干旱区1438个雨量站和太湖流域96个雨量站的降雨资料为例,通过经验频率与超过概率的比较,发现AMS估算的暴雨频率设计值偏小,尤其是对常遇频率降雨设计值的影响更加显著.美国的降雨量资料站点多、系列长,实际资料验证与理论分析一致.通过对太湖流域AMS资料的分布形态进行分析的结果表明：太湖流域的站点不多,资料长度不够,且大部分站点在雨量大值区数据稀少,使得频率直方图不连续,是造成我国太湖流域的资料验证效果不理想的可能原因.