东海区近海强风预报模式

本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式，首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤，及使用说明，为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件，用１９８６、１９８７上日本传真天气图进行试报，准确和基本准确度为９１．１％，并给出了１９８９、１９９５年随船试验预报结果，准确和基本准确率为９０％以上。     

Geophysical Evidence of a Relict Oceanic Crust in the Southwestern Scotia Sea

The southwestern part of the Scotia Sea, at the corner of the Shackleton Fracture Zone with the South Scotia Ridge has been investigated, combining marine magnetic profiles, multichannel seismic reflection data, and satellite-derived gravity anomaly data. From the integrated analysis of data, we identified the presence of the oldest part of the crust in this sector, which tentative age is older than anomaly C10 (28.7 Ma). The area is surrounded by structural features clearly imaged by seismic data, which correspond to gravity lows in the satellite-derived map, and presents a rhomboid-shaped geometry. Along its southern boundary, structural features related to convergence and possible incipient subduction beneath the continental South Scotia Ridge have been evidenced from the seismic profile. We interpret this area, now located at the edge of the south-western Scotia Sea, as a relict of ocean-like crust formed during an earlier, possibly diffuse and disorganized episode of spreading at the first onset of the Drake Passage opening. The successive episode of organized seafloor spreading responsible for the opening of the Drake Passage that definitively separated southern South America from the Antarctic Peninsula, instigated ridge-push forces that can account for the subduction-related structures found along the western part of the South Scotia Ridge. This seafloor accretion phase occurred from 27 to about 10 Ma, when spreading stopped in the western Scotia Sea Ridge, as resulted from the identification of the marine magnetic anomalies.     

A seismic refraction study of cretaceous oceanic lithosphere in the Northwest Pacific Basin

A seismic refraction study on old (110 Myr) lithosphere in the northwest Pacific Basin has placed constraints on crustal and uppermantle seismic structure of old oceanic lithosphere, and lithospheric aging processes. No significant lateral variation in structure other than azimuthally anisotropic mantle velocities was found, allowing the application of powerful amplitude modeling techniques. The anisotropy observed is in an opposite sense to that expected, suggesting the tectonic setting of the area may be more complex than originally thought. Upper crustal velocities are generally larger than for younger crust, supporting current theories of decreased porosity with crustal aging. However, there is no evidence for significant thickening of the oceanic crust with age, nor is there any evidence of a lower crustal layer of high or low velocity relative to the velocity of the rest of Layer 3. The compressional and shear wave velocities rule out a large component of serpentinization of mantle materials. The only evidence for a basal crustal layer of olivine gabbro cumulates is a 1.5 km thick Moho transition zone. In the slow direction of anisotropy, upper mantle velocities increase from 8.0 km s^-1 to 8.35 km s^-1 in the upper 15 km below the Moho. This increase is inconsistent with an homogeneous upper mantle and suggests that compositinal or phase changes occur near the Moho.     

贡湖水质富营养化综合评价及初步预测

对１９９６年７月贡湖三次调查资料进行的水质和富营养化现状综合评价显示：贡湖水质以Ⅲ－Ⅳ类为主，局部已出发Ｖ类，凯氏氮，非离子氨和总磷为主要污染物；营养型以中营养和中富营养类型分布面积较广。     

Seismic structure and tectonics of the Shackleton Fracture Zone (Drake Passage,Scotia Sea)

The structural framework of the southern part of the Shackleton Fracture Zone has been investigated through the analysis of a 130-km-long multichannel seismic reflection profile acquired orthogonally to the fracture zone near 60° S. The Shackleton Fracture Zone is a 800-km-long, mostly rectilinear and pronounced bathymetric lineation joining the westernmost South Scotia Ridge to southern South America south of Cape Horn, separating the western Scotia Sea plate from the Antarctic plate. Conventional processing applied to the seismic data outlines the main structures of the Shackleton Fracture Zone, but only the use of enhanced techniques, such as accurate velocity analyses and pre-stack depth migration, provides a good definition of the acoustic basement and the architecture of the sedimentary sequences. In particular, a strong and mostly continuous reflector found at about 8.0 s two-way traveltime is very clear across the entire section and is interpreted as the Moho discontinuity. Data show a complex system of troughs developed along the eastern flank of the crustal ridge, containing tilted and rotated blocks, and the presence of a prominent listric normal fault developed within the oceanic crust. Positive flower structures developed within the oceanic basement indicate strike-slip tectonism and partial reactivation of pre-existing faults. Present-day tectonic activity is found mostly in correspondence to the relief, whereas fault-induced deformation is negligible across the entire trough system. This indicates that the E–W-directed stress regime present in the Drake Passage region is mainly dissipated along a narrow zone within the Shackleton Ridge axis. A reappraisal of all available magnetic anomaly identifications in the western Scotia Sea and in the former Phoenix plate, in conjunction with new magnetic profiles acquired to the east of the Shackleton Fracture Zone off the Tierra del Fuego continental margin, has allowed us to propose a simple reconstruction of Shackleton Fracture Zone development in the general context of the Drake Passage opening.     

浙北地区旱涝预报问题探讨—一种汛期降水量长期预报方法

本文分析了当地前期气象要素——温度的演变特点与汛期降水量之间的关系,建立了两者之间的回归方程,并由此作出降水量的长期预报,从预报误差和试报结果看,效果是好的。     

烟威渔场盐度预报及分析

本文以我国北黄海的烟威渔场为研究对象,采用优选因子场预报模式,对盐度的时空变化进行预报试验。文中对所采用的统计预报方法,作了简要介绍。对影响本海区盐度变化的显著因子及预报结果作了初步分析。预报试验表明:预报的总体平均绝对误差为0.27‰,预报相对误差在18％左右,预报误差小于0.5‰的站数占总站数的85％,预报趋势与实测资料基本一致。     

Siltation Prediction for Navigation Channels and Harbour Basins on Muddy Beach

- This paper, after briefly reviewing the experimental research on sediment transport on muddy beach since the 1950s, improves and perfects the method for forecasting siltation in navigation channels and harbour basins which was first put forward in China by the authors. In consideration of silty sediment and sand, some factors in forecasting methods have been changed and modified. Consequently, the modified methods can be used either to compute siltation in navigation channels and harbour basins on muddy beach or to compute siltation and scouring in navigation channels and harbour basins on both silty beach and sandy beach. The verification of field data from eleven large, medium and small natural harbours shows a good agreement between the forecasting by the modified method and the natural conditions. Finally, the paper deals with the rational utilization of water area after the construction of the West Dyke in Lianyungang, the maintenance of water depth of the navigation channel at the entrance, siltation distribution, siltation in the navigation channel and harbour basin for ships of 100 thousand tonnnage. Results once again prove that the prospect of constructing Lianyungang Harbour into a deepwater harbour is bright.     

Fatigue Behavior of Plain Concrete Under Biaxial Compression: Experiments and Theoretical Model

The effects of different lateral confinement stress on the fatigue behavior of and cumulative damage to plain concrete are investigated experimentally. Eighty 100 mm x 100 mm x 100 mm specimens of ordinary strength concrete are tested under constant- or variable-amplitude fatigue loading and lateral confinement pressure in two orthogonal directions. A fatigue equation is developed by modifying the classical Aas-Jakobsen S-N equation for taking into account the effect of the confined stress on fatigue strength of plain concrete. The results of variable-amplitude fatigue tests indicate that the linear damage theory proposed by Palmgren and Miner is unreasonable in the biaxial stress state. A nonlinear cumulative damage model that could model the effects of the magnitude and sequence of variable-amplitude fatigue loading and lateral confinement pressure is proposed on the basis of the evolution laws of the residual strains in the longitudinal direction during fatigue tests. The residual fatigue life predic     

深水钻井中浅水流灾害问题及其地球物理识别技术

在深水钻井中,浅水流是一种常见的地质灾害。中国正在进行深水油气勘探,十分有必要开展这方面的地质灾害研究。介绍了浅水流的形成机制及地球物理特性。目前用于识别和预测浅水流的手段有测井和反射地震两大类方法。主要介绍了几种用于参数提取的地震反演方法,如传统Dix反演、叠后振幅反演、层析反演、叠前振幅反演等。