1—3年强震危险区预测的指标体系

强震危险区预测是当前地震预报中的重要课题之一。笔者以预警活断层、预警活断层分段研究解决断层活动的时间和空间尺度为主线，配合地震活动动态分析、地震波介质特征早期信息、近场趋势性前兆异常和危险性概率预测，确定了判别几年尺度强震危险区的指标。在“八五”地震科技课题研究过程中，圈这了范围不超过１００００ｋｍ＾２的５个强震危险区，已成功地对１９９３年１０月２日若羌６．６级地震、１９９５年５月２日乌苏５．８级     

Trends In U.S. Hazardous Materials Transportation Spills

This paper examines historical and spatial trends in hazardous materials transportation spills from 1971 to 1991. While the number of spills Inc.reased steadily during the 1970s, peaking in 1978–1979, there has been a decline in frequency sInc.e then largely due to modifications in reporting. Monetary damages have the opposite temporal pattern, with major Inc.reases recorded from 1982 onward. Death and injury statistics are more variable. Spatially, accidents are more prevalent in the Rust Belt extending from the Northeast corridor westward to the Great Lakes states, as well as in the Southeast. The greatest potential risk to the public is found in smaller, more densely populated industrial states such as New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. The spatial distribution, however, has not changed. Potential risk sources (e.g., chemical industry, number of hazardous waste facilities, number of railroad miles) are the best predictors of hazmat Inc.ident frequency. Mitigation efforts (statewide regulatory and/or management policies) also help explain the variability in hazmat Inc.idents.     

FARMING THE FOREST EDGE: VULNERABLE PLACES AND PEOPLE AROUND KIBALE NATIONAL PARK,UGANDA

ABSTRACT. Subsistence farmers near Kibale National Park, Uganda, fear and resent many wildlife species. In this article I compare records of crop damage by wildlife and livestock with local complaints about the worst animals and the most vulnerable crops. I discuss the concordance and discrepancies in complaints versus actual damage in light of physical parameters of risk and of social factors that shape perceptions and vulnerabilities. Crop losses were greatest at the edge of the forest, where immigrants are disproportionately represented. State proprietorship of wildlife amplifies local vulnerability and constrains traditional coping strategies, such as hunting.     

Unsiting Nuclear Power Plants: Decommissioning Risks and Their Land Use Context*

Nuclear power plant siting provided the first significant public opportunity to examine nuclear safety and to affect nuclear policy. These discussions were prompted and fueled by perceptions of nuclear risk. Now, as we begin the process of nuclear decommissioning, we are finding that power plant removal—unsiting–is also likely to attract public interest. This paper presents a preliminary survey of how we are likely to react to this emerging theme, applying these findings within a land use context to see if it is likely to produce issues salient to the public. In so doing it also examines how these issues could affect decommissioning timing and type. It suggests that the most likely prospect is that power plants will remain on the landscape long after they are closed.     

全国地质灾害趋势预测及预测图编制

区域地质灾害预测是地质灾害研究的难题。本文运用基于地理信息系统的风险评价方法对这一问题进行了探讨。将全国剖分为２７００个单元，对地质灾害进行现状评价，并与已数字化的地质灾害图件进行单要素叠加，编制了全国地质现状等值线图，在现状评价基础上，对地质灾害进行趋势预测，将降雨条件、区域地震活动、区域地壳稳定程度、区域岩组条件和人类工程活动等作为区域地质灾害演变的因素，运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评判，编制了１：６００万中国地质灾害趋势预测图。     

Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996     

甘肃省东南部未来地震危险区的模式识别

在综合分析甘肃省东南部地震地质特征的基础上，利用模式识别方法判定未来地震危险区的可能位置．结果表明，本区易发生地震的地点与全新世断裂强烈活动段相吻合，从而提高了对未来地震危险区判定的可信度     

对近年来地震危险区预测效果的评估

采用R值评分方法，对中国地震局地球物理研究所2001—2004年度划定的全国地震危险区进行了评估，2001—2004年度的R值分别为0．265、0．182、0．293、0．404。近两年的R值相对高些，为了排除随机成分，做了相应的随机预报试验检验，并对地震落入危险区的随机概率作了估计。结果表明，4个年度的R值明显高于随机预报，除2002年度外，地震随机落入危险区的概率很低，不到2％。这说明中国地震局地球物理研究所实际地震危险区划分取得了一定的效果，且逐年提高。     

利用高分辨率卫星影像进行地震损失评价所需的城市特征识别

高分辨率卫星影像已经在一些国家的民用领域得到应用。利用高分辨率卫星影像来收集地震损失评价所需要的各类城市信息不仅高效和有较好的时间分辨率，而且它可以减少以往所必需的大量的代价高昂且费力的城市调查。基于在印度城市台拉登所做的研究，讨论了如何利用高分辨率卫星影像进行城市特征识别的一些问题，同时也简单论述了利用GIS／RS软件综合所得的数据以便用于地震损失评价的方法。     

Earthquake Disaster Management and Insurance

As one of the most powerful tools to reduce the earthquake loss, the Earthquake Disaster Management [EDM] and Insurance [EI] have been highlighted and have had a great progress in many countries in recent years. Earthquake disaster management includes a series of contents, such as earthquake hazard and risk analysis, vulnerability analysis of building and infrastructure, earthquake aware training, and building the emergency response system. EI, which has been included in EDM after this practice has been done for many years, include these contents: insurance model, financing. This paper presents the development of china in EDM and EI. The main contents include: (1) the statue and trend of earthquake disaster management and insurance in china; (2) the progresses and new methods about the seismic risk zonation and vulnerability analysis, and the future developing trend, the application of GIS in earthquake disaster assessment is introduced; (3) the way and illustration in building the earthquake disaster e