Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

金川镍铜矿床数学模型对深部矿化变化趋势的指示

按矿化特征将金川X矿区主矿体分为致密块状特富矿、海绵状富矿和浸染状贫矿.应用MicroMine软件对3类矿化体分别建立了数学模型,并应用距离平方反比法对模型单元块进行了镍、铜品位估值.通过分析和对比矿床数学模型900m至1300m不同水平剖面上的Ni、Cu品位及Ni/Cu比值的变化,得出在X矿区的中部西侧是一个Ni和Cu的矿化中心,并且向深部Cu的矿化强度高于Ni.     

Detection of free vertical convection and double-diffusion in groundwater monitoring wells with geophysical borehole measurements

Two algorithms for in-situ detection and identification of vertical free convective and double-diffusive flows in groundwater monitoring wells or boreholes are proposed. With one algorithm the causes (driving forces) and with the other one the effects (convection or double-diffusion) of vertical transport processes can be detected based on geophysical borehole measurements in the water column. Five density-driven flow processes are identified: thermal, solutal, and thermosolutal convection leading to an equalization, as well as saltfingers and diffusive layering leading to an intensification of a vertical density gradient. The occurrence of density-driven transport processes could be proven in many groundwater monitoring wells and boreholes; especially shallow sections of boreholes or groundwater monitoring wells are affected dramatically by such vertical flows. Deep sections are also impaired as the critical threshold for the onset of a density-driven flow is considerably low. In monitoring wells or boreholes, several sections with different types of density-driven vertical flows may exist at the same time. Results from experimental investigations in a medium-scale testing facility with high aspect ratio (height/radius = 19) and from numerical modeling of a water column agree well with paramters of in-situ detected convection cells.     

桩前预留土体对抗滑桩影响的分析与计算研究

本文在前人研究的基础上对桩前土体需要开挖的抗滑桩提出了一种新的计算方法,即似m法。文中将单排抗滑桩分为三类:第一类为桩前土体不开挖,但与抗滑桩分离形成桩后缝隙;第二类为桩前土体不开挖,但与抗滑桩相贴且有抵挡抗滑桩的作用;第三类为桩前土体需要开挖,并对各类抗滑桩给出了相应的设计计算方法。对于第一类抗滑桩可用本文改进的m法和有限线单元法计算;对于第二类抗滑桩考虑桩前抗力值大小后也可用本文改进的m法和有限单元法计算;对于第三类抗滑桩可用本文提出的似m法和改进的有限线单元法计算。通过与实际工程测量值对比分析,得出结论:在抗滑桩工程中对桩的钢筋受力进行实测以推断桩的受力性能,弥补滑坡推力及桩前抗力勘测、分析、计算值可靠性差的弱点。该方法与二维、三维有限元法相比,具有计算方法简单、可靠的特点,值得广泛应用和发展。     

青岛奥运水域主要污染物环境容量的预测

通过对青岛奥运水域现场调查和资料分析,确定了奥运水域污染物的主要来源和主要污染物,然后在潮流模拟的基础上,利用物质输运方程数值模拟了2000~2003年污染物浓度的空间分布,其结果与现状调查基本吻合。最后再利用该输运方程,预测了奥运帆船水域的化学需氧量(COD)、氨氮(NH4 -N)、总磷(TP)的环境容量(中潮时分别为:69.948 t/d,7.46 t/d,0.5455 t/d),为奥运水域的目标管理提供科学依据。     

Numerical Experiment on Two-Dimensional Line Thermal

The time evolution of a two-dimensional line thermal-a turbulent flow produced by an initial element with signifi-cant buoyancy released in a large water body, is numerically studied with the two-equation k - e model for turbulence closure. The numerical results show that the thermal is characterized by a vortex pair flow and a kidney shaped concentra-tion structure with double peak maxima; the computed flow details and scalar mixing characteristics can be described by self-similar relations beyond a dimensionless time around 10. There are two regions in the flow field of a line thermal: a mixing region where the concentration of tracer fluid is high and the flow is turbulent and rotational with a pair of vortex eyes, and an ambient region where the concentration is zero and the flow is potential and well-described by a model of doublet with strength very close to those given by early experimental and analytical studies. The added virtual mass coeffi-cient of the thermal motion is found to be approximat     

海洋光合有效辐射分布的计算模式

针对一类海水，采用美国标准大气模型和一类水体海洋生物-光学特性的半分析方法，建立了海洋光合有效辐射计算模式。模式比较全面地考虑了大气、海-气界面和水体的光辐射传输过程，能较好地用于分析叶绿素浓度以及光辐射场的角分布对光俣有效辐射分布的影响。对模拟结果的分析以及与实测结果的比较表明，该模式能较好地应用于计算衰减系数、光谱辐照度随深度的分布、光合有效辐射随深度的分布和真光层深度，在海洋生态系统的光动力学研究和水色遥感方面有效好的应用前景。     

Numerical Solution of Lock-Release Gravity Current with Viscous Self-Similar Regime

Lock-release gravity currents with a viscous self-similar regime are simulated by use of the renormalization group(RNG) k - ε model for Reynolds-stress closure. Besides the turbulent regime with initially a slumping phase of a conslant current front speed and later an inviseid self-similar phase of front speed decreasing as t^-1/3(where t is the time measured from release), the viseous self-similar regime is satisfactorily reproduced with front speed decreasing as t^-4/5,consistent with well known experimental observations.     

河口环流和盐水入侵Ⅱ--径流量和海平面上升的影响

本文利用本序列上篇论文建立的理想河口数值模式,研究径流量和海平面上升对河口环流和盐水入侵的影响.在径流量增大的情况下,口门内表层向海的流速增大,底层向陆的密度流减弱,滞流点下移.口门外侧向口门的密度流增大,上升流趋于增强.口门内盐水入侵减弱,口外盐度减小、冲淡水扩展范围增大.在口门上游北岸底层盐度下降明显,口门处南岸表层盐度下降明显.径流量变化对盐水入侵影响十分巨大.在海平面上升的情况下,拦门沙区域向陆的密度流增强,滞流点上移,表层向海的流动增大.口门内盐水入侵增强,口外盐度增大,冲淡水扩展范围减小.海平面上升对盐水入侵影响十分明显,北岸底层盐度增大尤为特出.     

Modeling of Multi-Freedom Ship Motions in Irregular Waves with Fuzzy Neural Networks

1 .IntroductionAshiptravelingatseaundergoesundesirablewave inducedmotions ,namely ,surge ,sway ,heav ing ,rolling ,pitchingandyaw .Thesemotionsoftencauseproblemstothecrew ,theonboardequip mentand ,intheworstcase ,thesafetyofthevessel.Tominimizethewave inducedshipmotions ,controlsystemsmaybeapplied .Theaccuratemodelingofshipmotionsisthereforeveryimportantforshipdesignanddesignofmotioncontrolsystems .Manyresearchershavedevelopedshipmotionpredictionmethodsbasedonthepotentialflowtheo ries (Dong ,…