公众气象服务支付意愿影响因素研究

基于中国气象局2008年调查数据,运用二分Logistic回归、最优尺度回归和判定树CRT模型分析了公众气象服务支付意愿的影响因素。结果表明：个体因素中年龄与文化程度对公众气象服务支付意愿（包括是否支付与支付多少）有显著影响,而性别因素只对支付多少有显著影响,对是否支付没有显著影响;收入因素对公众气象服务支付意愿有显著影响;关注程度、天气预报准确性、天气预报及时性、气象服务总体满意度对公众气象服务支付数额多少有显著影响,但影响程度很小;个体因素与收入因素对公众气象服务支付意愿影响程度较高,而心理因素影响程度很小。     

Microsporidan parasite Thelohania contejeani Henneguy from New Zealand freshwater crayfish

The sporozoan Thelohania contejeani Henneguy (Microsporida: Nosematidae) is recorded from Paranephrops zealandicus (White) for the first time. It is an intracellular parasite invading musculature throughout the crayfish, causing a gradual decrease in locomotor activity, and it may eventually cause the death of the host. Infected crayfish were found in the northern part of Leith Stream, Dunedin, where the infection rate reached a maximum of 20%. This parasite has formerly been recorded only from Northern Europe.     

A procedure on ground motion selection and scaling for nonlinear response of simple structural systems

This study presents a ground-motion selection and scaling methodology that preserves the basic seismological features of the scaled records with reduced scatter in the nonlinear structural response. The methodology modifies each strong-motion recording with known fundamental seismological parameters using the estimations of ground-motion prediction equations for a given target hazard level. It provides robust estimations on target building response through scaled ground motions and calculates the dispersion about this target. This alternative procedure is not only useful for record scaling and selection but, upon its further refinement, can also be advantageous for the probabilistic methods that assess the engineering demand parameters for a given target hazard level. Case studies that compare the performance of the proposed procedure with some other record selection and scaling methods suggest its usefulness for building performance assessment and loss models. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

水管倾斜仪标定中若干问题的讨论

讨论了DSQ型水管倾斜仪标定中的重要环节和方法,以及有关参数的原理和程序计算,为正确进行水管仪标定提供了一些参考经验和计算工具。     

A novel dynamic stretching solution to eliminate saturation effect in NDVI and its application in drought monitoring

The normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) is one of the key input variables for developing drought indices.However,the NDVI quickly saturates in high vegetation surfaces,and thus,the generalization of a drought index over different ecosystems becomes a challenge.This paper presents a novel,dynamic stretching algorithm to overcome the saturation effect in NDVI.A scaling transformation function to eliminate saturation effects when the vegetation fraction(VF) is large is proposed.Dynamic range adjustment is conducted using three coefficients,namely,the normalization factor(a),the stretching range controlling factor(m),and the stretching size controlling factor(e).The results show that the stretched NDVI(S-NDVI) is more sensitive to vegetation fraction than NDVI when the VF is large,ranging from 0.75 to 1.00.Moreover,the saturation effect in NDVI is effectively removed by using the S-NDVI.Further analysis suggests that there is a good linear correlation between the S-NDVI and the leaf area index(LAI).At the same time,the proposed S-NDVI significantly reduces or even eliminates the saturation effect over high biomass.A comparative analysis is performed between drought indices derived from NDVI and S-NDVI,respectively.In the experiment,reflectance data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS) products and in-situ observation data from the meteorological sites at a regional scale are used.In this study,the coefficient of determination(R2) of the stretched drought index(S-DI) is above 0.5,indicating the reliability of the proposed algorithm with surface soil moisture content.Thus,the S-DI is suggested to be used as a drought index in extended regions,thus regional heterogeneity should be taken into account when applying stretching method.     

城市紧凑性测度指标研究及典型城市分析——以南京、苏州建设用地紧凑度为例

量化表征城市紧凑性是当前地理学界和规划领域共同关注的热点问题,明确紧凑性指标反映的实际意义与适用范围,成为构建测度体系的关键.当前已有众多研究提出数量相当可观的量化指标,本文结合国内外城市紧凑性定量研究进展,根据表征紧凑内涵的不同将其归纳为形状、规模、密度、结构、功能和过程6 类,分析了不同类型指标的适用范围,并以结构类指标为例,采用南京和苏州的实际建设用地数据,根据指标自身稳定特性识别的实用性和局限性,达到评判和筛选指标的目的.结果显示：指标能有效指示建设用地的实际空间结构特征;4 个指标受尺度变化的影响不强烈,具有良好的应用性能,其中Gini 系数和Moran’s I 在应用中,前提条件局限小,适用广泛;而连续度和向心度较直观,但在进行城市比较研究时限制条件较多.该研究结果能够为城市紧凑性量化研究提供一定的借鉴,并指导城市规划与管理政策制定.     

城市异速标度研究的起源、困境和复兴

系统总结了城市异速标度研究的学术源流、量纲困境和现状特征,重点探讨了城市化异速标度分析的前景和意义。异速标度是城市研究的基本理论方法之一,该方法起源于20世纪50年代的生物学和一般系统论。由于量纲难题,城市异速分析经过一段时间的研究热潮之后趋于冷落;由于分维概念的引入,异速标度关系摆脱了量纲困境;由于相关领域的推动,城市异速分析方法复兴。异速生长和异速标度分析在城市形态、城市生态、城市性态、城市动态以及城市体系等诸多领域都有应用。如今,异速生长正在与分形和自组织网络理论相互融合,发展成为基于一般标度律的城市过程和格局的集成分析方法。由于城市化与城市形态、城市体系等方面的密切相关,异速标度分析极有前景的一个发展方向可能是城市化研究。城市化异速分析可望将不同类型的城市异速标度研究成果组织成一个完整的逻辑框架。     

长江干流日径流序列的多重分形特征

基于长江干流寸滩、宜昌和大通三个主要控制水文站多年的日径流资料,运用多重分形消除趋势波动分析 (MF-DFA)等方法,识别长江流域不同空间尺度上径流序列的多重分形特征,并采用推广的乘积阶次模型,对多重分形谱进行拟合。结果表明: (1)长江干流的日径流序列具有自相似的多重分形特征,该多重分形特征是由序列内在的长程相关性引起的;(2)长江干流日径流序列的多重分形谱可用推广的乘积阶次模型进行描述,模型拟合的参数a、b可作为该水文站点的特征参数,能够对降雨径流模型有效地进行检测;(3)长江干流日径流变化的复杂程度具有空间差异性。下游大通水文站径流序列的奇异性大于上游两站点,其径流变化过程更为复杂,而上游两站奇异性相差不大。造成三个站点径流过程变化复杂程度差异的主要原因,包括集水面积、来水组成、降水特点和下垫面状况等。     

基于多重分形特征的岩体结构面剪切强度研究

Barton剪切强度模型是目前工程实践中普遍采用的强度公式,而实践应用时,该模型中结构面粗糙性系数（JRC）的评估存在主观性和片面性的缺点。鉴于此,应用多重分形理论,提出了采用多重分形参数准确量化JRC的方法。首先应用数字图像处理技术获取了结构面三维形貌数据信息;然后采用投影覆盖法进行了结构面的分形维数计算,重点对结构面的多重分形特征进行了分析,通过对比分析了构造的15个结构面的多重分形特征值。结果表明：结构面越粗糙,多重分形特征参数 和 值越大, 或 能够很好地描述结构面的形貌特征。最后对9组石膏试件进行了剪切试验,通过不同正应力下对应的剪应力数据分析,结合结构面形貌多重分形参数 或 ,以Barton剪切强度公式为基础,应用最小二乘法原理,给出了JRC与 及JRC与 关系。这样在工程实际中,可以用参数 或 对JRC进行估算,克服了JRC人为估值主观性及采用二维标准轮廓线评估片面性的缺点,为准确评估结构面粗糙度提供了一条新的途径。在此基础上,应用Barton模型可准确估算岩体结构面的剪切强度。