灌区水资源实时优化调配决策软件研制

针对北方水资源短缺的特点,在一定农作物种植比例条件下,将有限水资源分配给各种作物,进行非充分灌溉,使有效水资源发挥最大效益。并以模拟技术为手段,以控制作物不同生育期土壤最低含水率为方法,结合降水的随机性,进行灌区优化配水过程设计及可实施自修正的灌溉决策软件研制。     

流域水资源承载能力综合评价的多目标决策-理想区间模型

水资源承载能力评价，是一个由多目标组成的复杂巨系统，其难点是如何合理地建立评价该系统的数学模型。由于评价标准是区间概念而非点的概念，因而传统的多目标决策一理想点法把评价标准处理成理想点存在一定缺陷。为了克服这种缺陷，对多目标决策理想点法进行了改进，提出了一种新的评价模型——多目标决策一理想区间模型(MODMIIM)，介绍了MODMIIM的原理，给出了其构成方法，并用MODMIIM对淮河流域的水资源承载能力进行了综合评价，结论为淮河流域的水资源承载能力总体上较弱。MODMIIM可操作性强，计算结果稳定、合理。与多目标决策一理想点法相比，MODMIIM具有更大的适用性。MODMIIM可广泛应用于各种水资源综合评价问题中。     

基于VB通信控制技术的气象短信服务

气象短信业务是GSM运营商与气象部门合作开展的面向群体和公众的一种服务。文中介绍了如何利用Visual Basic 6.0通信技术,实现PC机与GSM模块之间的通信,开展气象决策短信服务。主要对短信编辑、短信发送、系统管理和一些关键技术作了较为详细的阐述,可为其他地市级气象局设计出有自己特色的气象决策短信服务平台系统提供技术借鉴和参考。该系统设计过程中强化信息的发布权威,对外发布的内容必须经过审阅和签名,对用户号码实行授权管理等。     

基于GIS的城市警务决策支持系统的设计和开发

地理信息系统(G IS)应用于警务工作是当今警务信息化的重要内容之一。本文以实际的警用地理信息决策支持系统为基础,详细阐述了基于G IS的警务决策支持系统的设计原理和实现过程,为G IS在警务工作中的应用提供了一种解决思路和实现方法。     

从2005年台风数值预报误差探讨决策预报中的几个问题

通过2005年5个台风9种数值模式在各时段的登陆点预报误差统计分析，结合各次台风过程天气形势的分析，探讨数值预报模式对台风路径的预报能力，并对台风决策预报服务中的几个问题提出探讨意见。统计分析结果表明，数值模式对台风路径的72-96小时预报的平均误差较大，当天气形势出现较大的变化和调整时，预报有可能出现一致性的误差。     

概率天气预报的兴起及其社会经济意义

作者试图从辨证法观点分析概率天气预报之所以兴起的认识论动机和社会经济动机，指出了概率天气预报的产生既是人对天气气候变化同时具有确定性和随机性的认识不断深化的结果，也是社会经济发展到一定阶段，经济决策日益定量经和精细化客观需要，阐述了气象－经济决策这一跨学科领域与概率天气预报之间的相互关系，并有一个简单的气象经济决策模式从理论上和实例计算结果证明了概率天气预报比传统的天气预报更高的经济价值。     

MULTI-OBJECTIVE PROGRAMMING MODEL OF TROPICAL CROPS IN HAINAN ISLAND

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广州市中产阶层外出购物行为的时空特征及决策因素

基于广州市中产阶层活动日志问卷调查,借鉴社会分层、行为地理学和时间地理学等理论方法,采用ArcGIS空间分析和多元Logit模型对中产阶层外出购物行为的时空特征与决策因素进行分析。结果表明:中产阶层外出购物行为呈现多样化时空特征。工作日购物时间双峰陡峭,休息日双峰平缓;工作日购物空间范围比休息日小,工作日购物活动集中在晚间近圈层(0~1 km),休息日集中在白天中圈层(1~5 km)。无论工作日还是休息日,商业设施密度是影响中产阶层外出购物行为时空决策的主要因素,工作日性别因素影响较大,休息日出行方式因素作用显著。中产阶层购物时间节奏与一般居民相差不大,但空间距离较远,其时空决策受商业设施密度影响程度更高。     

海南岛热带作物多目标规划模型

本文从海南热带作物生物特性、现实生产结构和地区气候条件出发、对热作种植业进行了模湖区域性划分；在计算构成各区产量基本参数的基础上，应用多目标规划方法，建立了热作结构优化的近期分区模型；并通过近期基础模型和对未来参数的预测，建立了远期灰色规划模型。结果表明，近期方案可提高收益5．1－55．7％，远期方案可提高54－90％，远近期方案均取得了明显的经济效果。     

The Conceptual Model and Its Empirical Studies of Sustainable Carrying Capacity of Water Resources:A Case Study of China Mainland

Based on the interactive development of new industrialization, rapid urbanization and agricultural modernization (IUAM), and from the viewpoint of interactive responses and supply-demand relationships between regional water resources carrying capacity and economic-social development, this paper puts forward the concepts and characterization methods of water resources relative intensity (WRI), water resources carrying rate (WCR) and sustainable index of water resources system (WSI). Considering the catastrophic trait of water resources carrying capacity and its contradictory relationship with WRI, a modified Catastrophe Model, which combines Catastrophe Theory and Fuzzy Mathematic Theory, was introduced to perform a multi-objective and multi-criterion comprehensive assessment of the sustainability of water resources carrying capacity (WSCC) based on benchmarking. According to these concepts and models, land WSCC for the China mainland was set as an example for empirical analysis. The results showed that at the scale of first-grade water regions, Liaohe River, Yangtze River and Pearl River regions had high WRI of domestic water, while Northwestern Rivers, Southeastern Rivers regions and Yangtze River region in some years had high WRI of eco-environment water. However, they were all in a downtrend, while the other four northern regions had low WRI in an uptrend. The agricultural WRI in Songhua River, Yellow River and Northwestern Rivers regions were relatively high and industrial WRI in Songhua River, Yangtze River and Pearl River regions were also relatively high. At the provincial scale, WSCC of urban domestic water was relatively stable, WSCC of eco-environment was obviously fluctuating, and WSCC of agriculture and industry were constantly rising. Overall, WRI in the China mainland generally decreased. The convergence of provinces with high consumption intensity of water resources and spatial spillover of WUE in high WCR provinces promotes water resources development and utilization, progressing toward doubly sustainable development. In the future, China should try to find new ideas and methods of dynamic management of regional water resources and unified management of basin water resources, building on the foundation of traditional water resources planning. Meanwhile, water resources should be considered in regional PRED (population, resources, ecology and development) systems for integrated dispatching and optimizing configuration so that the improvements of WSCC and harmonious development of water resources and regional populations, eco-environment, economy and society can be achieved.