1013号台风“鲇鱼”风暴潮特点分析

1013号超强台风“鲇鱼”在福建漳浦县登陆.登陆时逢农历九月十六的天文高潮,给闽南沿海地区造成了较大的灾害.本文从台风路径特点及灾害、天气形势、与历史相似台风(9914号)对比、数值模拟等方面对此次台风引起的风暴潮过程进行分析得出:进行历史台风相似分析时,除了台风本身路径、强度、移速等参数之外,还要注意分析台风的季节时间,天气形势,登陆地点,这些都会造成台风增水的明显不同;台风登陆后,受地形和降水影响,有时增水也会持续增大几小时.     

Analysis of recent climate change over the Arctic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data

This study investigates recent climate change over the Arctic and its link to the mid-latitudes using the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast （ECMWF）. Since 1979, sub- stantial surface warming, associated with the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, has occurred over the Arctic. The great- est warming in winter has taken place offshore in the Kara-Barents Sea, and is associated with the increase in turbulent heat fluxes from the marginal ice zone. In contrast to the marked warming over the Arctic Ocean in winter, substantial cooling appears over Siberia and eastern Asia, linked to the reduction of Arctic sea ice during the freezing season （September-March）. However, in summer, very little change is observed in surface air temperature over the Arctic because increased radiative heat melts the sea ice and the amount of turbulent heat gain from the ocean is relatively small. The heat stored in the upper ocean mixed layer in summer with the opening of the Arctic Ocean is released back to the atmosphere as turbulent heat fluxes during the autumn and through to the following spring. This warming of the Arctic and the reduced sea ice amplifies surface cooling over Siberia and eastern Asia in winter.     

Back‐barrier flooding by storm surges and overland flow

Low‐elevation areas within a sandy barrier island are subject to flooding via saturation overland flow following moderate storm surges and rainfall events. Using a high resolution topographic survey and simple hydrology models, we estimate the discharge and velocities from storm surge return flow and saturation overland flow. Results show that return flow velocities are of the same magnitude as the critical velocity necessary to mobilize sand when a hydraulic connection between the watershed and back‐barrier bay is present. Storms of moderate strength and rainfall intensity may be sufficient to keep the return channels open within the back‐barrier, thus providing natural conduits for water exchange from overwash events during extreme storm surges triggered by hurricanes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1949—2009年登陆和影响浙江的热带气旋分析

通过对1949—2009年61年间登陆和影响浙江的热带气旋的时空分布特征、主要影响路径等的分析,发现在7—9月份登陆浙江的热带气旋占登陆总数的92.5%,7—9月份影响浙江的热带气旋占影响总数的82%。影响浙江的热带气旋中登陆福建或在台湾海峡消失的热带气旋占的比重最多。虽然西北太平洋上热带气旋生成个数近年来大幅减少,但登陆浙江的强台风有明显增多的趋势。随着气候的变暖,海水温度的增高,热带气旋生成的时间提早,结束的时间偏迟。另外通过对热带气旋影响时各海岛、沿海和内陆站的大风、暴雨的分析,发现热带气旋影响期间容易引起大风天气的是大陈和嵊山站;容易引起暴雨天气的是温岭、临海和温州站。本文还分析了验潮站最大增水超过1m、2m、3m的时空分布特征。     

浙江沿海2010“10.25”温带风暴潮灾害特征及成因分析

2010年10月25—29日,浙江省沿岸遭受了本海区近10年来最强温带风暴潮袭击,浙江北部沿海部分岸段出现超过当地警戒潮位的高潮位,宁波镇海、舟山定海和沈家门部分沿岸地区出现漫滩和内涝等险情。本文根据实况天气图、实况观测资料和实况分析资料,分析了10.25温带风暴潮的成因、特点,为今后预报此类风暴潮提供一些可借鉴的预报经验。     

“威马逊”台风暴潮增水及水动力响应数值模拟

基于河口海岸水动力三维数值计算模型,建立浙江沿海天文潮与风暴潮耦合预报模式。利用该模式,对经过浙江沿海海域的台风"威马逊"进行数值计算,风暴潮增水计算结果与实测值符合较好,误差基本在±20 cm以内。计算增水值与传统的调和分析法所得的增水结果相比,也较为一致。进一步对局部水动力响应的研究发现,风暴潮期间,局部地区从底到表各层水流流速均急剧增大或减小,其值达到了与天文潮流同等的数量级。当水流流向与风向相同或相近时,流速增大,相反时,则流速减小。且台风期间,各层水流流向也随风向发生改变,流态变得更加复杂。     

风水复合侵蚀与生态恢复研究进展

风水复合侵蚀是风力与水力共同或交替作用相互增强或者削弱的过程。从侵蚀区划分、驱动因素、侵蚀机理和生态恢复对策等方面论述了风水复合侵蚀的研究进展,简述了半干旱风水复合侵蚀区和海岸复合侵蚀区是两个影响最大的风水复合侵蚀区。晋陕蒙接壤区为半干旱风水复合侵蚀区的强烈侵蚀中心,在土地利用上属农牧交错区,生态环境极为脆弱。海岸复合侵蚀岸段分布广泛,侵蚀岸线在总岸线中所占比例较大。影响风水复合侵蚀的因素包括自然和人为因素,且地域差异显著。半干旱区风水复合侵蚀研究主要从侵蚀特点、土壤特性、侵蚀产沙、侵蚀能量研究等方面;海岸复合侵蚀区从侵蚀特征、风暴潮与海岸复合侵蚀关系等方面分析了取得的进展和存在的不足。总结了生物措施和工程措施对风水复合侵蚀区生态恢复的作用,展望了风水复合侵蚀与生态恢复的研究方向,并指出复合侵蚀机理与评估、生态恢复机理与评价研究是今后研究的趋势。     

珠江三角洲地区风暴潮重现期及增水与环境要素的关系

珠江三角洲地区是我国海岸中台风暴潮最严重的区域之一,受全球变暖和海平面上升影响,该地区风暴潮增水重现值将出现显著的变化。本文采用耿贝尔方法和皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布法,分别计算了珠江三角洲地区11个潮位站的最大增水值的重现期,并对计算结果进行了比较,绘制了风暴潮增水重现值分布曲线。结果表明大部分潮位站的耿贝尔分布曲线与经验频率点吻合程度较好,少数潮位站的皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布曲线与经验频率点吻合程度较好,两种方法结合起来效果最佳;分析了该地区风暴潮重现期的基本特征;最后总结了风暴潮与台风路径、天文潮以及地形之间的关系。该计算结果将为政府规划设计部门决策提供参考,对风暴潮预报、海岸工程设计和估计风暴潮造成的损失提供科学依据。     

Rapidly installed temporary gauging for hurricane waves and surge,and application to Hurricane Gustav

Hurricanes can produce extreme nearshore waves and surge, but permanent gauging stations are often much sparser than is desired. This paper describes the rationale behind and outline for rapidly installed temporary coastal gauges, and presents results during Hurricane Gustav (2008). Within 48 h prior to landfall, twenty self-recording pressure gauges were deployed in depths of 1.4–23 m over more than 700 km of coastline, using helicopters to cover the large distances. Results showed a complex picture that was strongly dependent on location. East of the Mississippi Delta, open coast waves were large, and surge reached 3.8 m NAVD88 in marshes. West of the delta but near landfall, waves and surge were generally smaller as the river levees blocked flow from East to West. West of landfall, both waves and surge were very small and the most prominent feature was a water level drawdown that reached 1.5 m. Wave spectra varied strongly depending both on location and time from landfall.     

The structural,geometric and volumetric changes of a polythermal Arctic glacier during a surge cycle: Comfortlessbreen,Svalbard

Various parameters of the most recent surge of the polythermal glacier Comfortlessbreen in northwest Svalbard, have been assessed through a combination of remote sensing and ground observations. Analysis of a digital elevation model time‐series shows a marked change in the geometry of the glacier from quiescence (1990 and earlier) into the late surge phase (2009). The transfer of 0.74 km³ of ice caused up to 80 m of surface drawdown in the reservoir area, above the equilibrium line, whilst ice built up in a spatially concentrated manner in the receiving zone, below the equilibrium line. A ramp of ice, c. 100 m above quiescent level, developed in the lower reaches of the glacier late in the surge. Also in the lower reaches of the glacier, structures attributable to the passage of a kinematic wave are identified and the migration of a surge front on the glacier is thus inferred. In a conceptual model, we consider that a bend in the valley, in which the glacier resides, and convergence with tributary glaciers, to be significant factors in the style of surge evolution. Their flow‐restrictive interference results in slow initial mass‐transfer and the growth of a surge front within 3–4 km of the terminus. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.