专项气象服务经济效益的评价理论与技术

当前，由于缺乏对气象服务投入量与产出量准确而完整的统计，要对气象服务的各种经济效益作出总体评价是困难的。然而，在专项气象服务中，却不乏原始、完整而准确的资料。作者从此出发，讨论了专项气象服务经济效益评价的理论。并通过实地调查，以彭州市气象局几项专项气象服务为例探讨了评价技术。     

优化发电能源结构的初探

从我国电力工业发展的角度，浅析了国内外发电能源结构及其变化趋势，作者认为优化我国发电能源结构、采取必要的技术措施，是实现我国电力 工业可持续发的重要途径。     

A MESO-β SCALE SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF BOREAL FOREST ECOSYSTEM ON THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE

Based on the Intensive Field Campaign(IFC-1)data of Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study(BOREAS).a three-dimensional meso-β scale model is used to simulate the effect of boreal forests onthe lower atmosphere.A fine horizontal resolution of 2 km×2 km is used in order to distinguish thevegetative heterogeneity in the boreal region.A total of 20×25 grid points cover the entire sub-modeling area in BOREAS' South Study Area(SSA).The ecosystem types and their coverage ineach grid square are extracted from the North American Land Cover Characteristics Data Base(NALCCD)generated by the U.S.Geographical Survey(USGS)and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln(UNL).The topography of the study area is taken from the Digital Elevation Map(DEM)of USGS.The model outputs include the components of the energy balance budget within the canopyand at the ground.the turbulence parameters in the atmospheric boundary layer and the wind.temperature and humidity profiles extending up to a height of 1500 m.In addition to the fine timeand spatial step,the unique feature of the present model is the incorporation of both dynamic andbiological effects of the Boreal forest into the model parameterization scheme.The model resultscompare favorably with BOREAS' IFC-1 data in 1994 when the forest was in the luxuriant growingperiod.     

Energy flow in Branchiura sowerbyi (Oligochaeta: tubificidae) in a shallow macrophyte-dominated lake, Biandantang Lake

The energy flow ofBranchiura sowerbyi was studied for the first time in China in a shallow macrophytic lake, Biandantang Lake, Hubei Province. The energy flow was calculated from the measurement of flesh production (12.5241kJ/m²a), egestion (517.7302kJ/m²a), metabolism (38.3273 kJ/m²a), and excretion (4.3798kJ/m²a). The net growth efficiency of the species is about 22.7%, which accords well with the generally reported value for oligochaetes. In addition, the relationship between starvation respiration (R, mgO₂/ind·d), wet weight (Ww, mg) and temperature (T, °C) were also measured, with the regression function beingR=0.008Ww^0.736 e^0.050T. Project supported by NSFC (30270278, 3960019), the foundation of the government of Hubei Province (No. 2000J109), and the foundation of Ecological Station, CAS in the Institute of Hydrobiology.     

形状误差圆柱度的优化计算

建立了简明的圆柱度数学模型，并采用优化方法进行求解，为圆柱度误差值的评定提供了较理想的计算方法。     

A stepwise method for determining the number of component distributions in a mixture

This paper considers the problem of estimatingm, the number of components in a finite mixture of distributions from a parametric family. A step-up procedure using the bootstrap method is proposed. Some properties of the procedure are illustrated with simulation studies. An example of the method, applied to orientation of beach clasts, is given.     

ENERGY FLOW OF BELIAMYA AERUGINOSA IN A SHALLOW ALGAL LAKE, HOUHU LAKE （WUHAN, CHINA）

The energy budget ofBellamya earuginosa in a shallow algal lake, Houhu Lake (Wuhan, China) was investigated by the measurement of flesh production (32.8 kJ/(m²·a)), egestion (337.7 kJ/(m²·a)), metabolism (246.7 kJ/(m²·a)), and estimation of excretion (21.4kJ/(m²·a)). The net growth efficiency of the species is about 10.9%, which accords with the generally reported value for gastropods. In addition, the relationships between starvation respiration (R, mgO₂/(Ind·d)), body weight (Wd, mg in dry wt) and temperature (T, °C) were also determined. The regression equationR=0.044Wd ^0.537 e ^0.061T was obtained by the least square method, The measured SDA of the species is 26.51% of its gross metabolism. Project No. 3960019 and 39430101 supported by NSFC and also a granted for the East Lake Ecological Experimental Station, CAS, Wuhan.     

Study on numerical simulation to water lowering in an open coal mine digging

In view of the situation of excavation of open coal mine for the underground water disaster,we should carry out simulation studies for the numerical value of the water lowering project and improve the accuracy and the level of the water lowering project.On the basis of the hydrological geological conditions of certain open mine digging,a more reasonable seepage numerical model was built according to MODFLOW.It was simulated in advance that the process of the confined water level descending with the time,and combining with the actual observations to test the correctness of the model.The calculation showed that the results coincided well with the results of actual measurement.Based on this,different water lowering numerical simulations were built for the open coal mine digging.It could be simulated and forecast that the changes of the groundwater level in drainage process within and outside the mine pit,and it was quantitatively assessed that the possible water lowering result of the opencast water drainage process,which provide an important basis for the actual water lowering project and the possible project disposal.     

On salinity regimes and the vertical structure of residual flows in narrow tidal estuaries

An examination is made of the circulation in narrow estuaries subject to a predominant tidal forcing. Velocity structures are derived separately for residual flow components associated with (a) river flow, (b) wind stress, (c) a well-mixed longitudinal density gradient and (d) a fully stratified saline wedge. Dimensionless parameters are introduced to indicate the magnitude of each component and these parameters are evaluated for 9 major estuaries, thereby revealing their sensitivity to each component.For a channel of constant breadth and depth, formulae are deduced for the length of saline intrusion, L. Comparisons with observed data show that such formulae may be used with confidence to predict changes in L arising from variations in river flow, tidal range or channel depths.The level of stratification is shown to be related to a product of two parameters, one associated with velocity structure and a second involving the square of the ‘flow ratio’ $\text{u}\text{u}\text{?}$ (i.e. residual velocity/amplitude of the tidal velocity). This relationship provides a simple classification system for estuarine stratification which can be used to indicate the sensitivity of any particular estuary to changing conditions.     

广西芒场锡多金属矿田稳定同位素组成对矿床成因探讨

笔者曾对广西芒场锡多金属矿田的稳定同位素进行研究。本文根据硫、铅、氢、氧、碳等稳定同位素组成和锶的初始值提供的信息.探讨了矿床成因。并结合矿田矿床地质特征、控矿条件及有关统计参数,参考前人对矿床认识的基础上,修正提出了该矿田混合热液成矿模式,可供类似矿床研究和找矿的参考。