Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

一维扩散方程整体观测资料下的初值变分同化反演

本文考虑一维扩散方程的反问题,利用变分同化方法通过观测资料来确定方程中的未知初值,通过分析观测误差对于初值误差的影响,证明变分同化初值收敛于原问题的真实参数,并得到了参数的收敛精度。同时将得到的初值代入预报模式中,得到预报解,并分析了预报解的收敛性和预报误差。     

Simulation of Pollutant Transport in Marmaris Bay

The circulation pattern and the pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay are simulated by the developed three-dimensional baroclinic model. The Marmaris Bay is located at the Mediterranean Sea coast of Turkey. Since the sp ring tidal range is typically 20- 30 cm, the dominant forcing for the circulation and water exchange is due to the wind action. In the Marmaris Bay, there is sea outfall discharging directly into the bay. and that threats the bay water quality significantly. The current patterns in the vicinity of the outfall have been observed by tracking drogues which are moved by currents at different water depths. In the simulations of pollutant transport, the coliforms-counts is used as the tracer. The model provides realistic predictions for the circulation and pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay. The transport model component predictions well agree with the results of a laboratory model study.     

贡湖及其相关水域风生流模拟研究

在太湖风生流的数值模拟研究的基础上，设计模拟贡湖及其相关水域风生流的套网格数值模式。应用该模式研究不同风情下，梅梁湖，太湖主体湖水对贡湖的影响。     

台风"杜鹃"影响期间福建大风天气的特点及成因

台风“杜鹃”影响期间，福建大风天气出现的比较早，而且范围比较大．本文通过对天气尺度的环境场、具有代表性的单站资料的对比分析，寻求大风出现的原因．还深入利用MM5模式对台风的气压场、风场、流场等进行数值模拟，分析结果表明台湾地形倒槽的形成对此次大风天气出现有着重要的作用，此外从流场分型的角度进一步分析台湾地形倒槽的形成原因．     

From 2D TO 3D Through Modelling Based On A Single Image

Three-dimensional modelling from single images remains an interesting topic of investigation in the research community, even though range sensors are becoming a common alternative for the generation of 3D information. The interest in single-image-based modelling is motivated by a wide spectrum of applications such as cultural heritage, civil engineering, urban planning and even criminology. In this paper a complete new production flowline is presented for modelling based on a single image. The modelling process consists of a series of familiar steps in photogrammetry and computer vision: feature extraction, vanishing point computation, camera self-calibration, 3D reconstruction and dimensional analysis. In particular, the methodology developed for single-image-based modelling takes a scientific approach combining several proven techniques with robust estimators. Finally, in order to demonstrate its capabilities, the reported examples include several real situations applied in different contexts.