投影寻踪回归与BP神经网络方法在前汛期降水预测中的比较研究

以1962—2006年粤北地区7个站4—6月前汛期降水量资料为基础,将前汛期降水量与74项环流指数资料进行灰色关联度分析,确定了影响粤北地区前汛期降水量的16个关键环流指数因子,分别应用投影寻踪回归、BP神经网络和逐步回归方法,建立前汛期降水趋势预测模型,对粤北地区前汛期降水趋势进行预测。结果表明:投影寻踪回归和BP神经网络方法的预测能力均优于传统的逐步回归模型。其中,PPR模型比BP神经网络方法的预测效果更好。     

Role of a rheophyte in bench development on a sand‐bed river in southeast Australia

Casuarina cunninghamiana Miq. is an important rheophytic tree in New South Wales, Australia because it is fast growing and can tolerate flood disturbance. Widden Brook is an active sand‐bed stream that has widened substantially since initial European settlement in the early 1800s and is characterized by high flood variability and multi‐decadal periods of alternating high and low flood frequency, called flood‐ and drought‐dominated regimes. Channel contraction by bench formation is currently occurring. Conversion of coarse‐grained point bars to benches is an important process of channel contraction. When point bars grow to a height where suspended sediment is first deposited to thicknesses of at least 50 mm by sub‐bankfull floods, rapid establishment of C. cunninghamiana occurs. As the trees grow they partially block bankside flows, thereby locally reducing flow velocity and inducing further deposition on the benches. Such synergistic relationships between bar height and inundation, fine‐grained sediment deposition, tree establishment and the development of a bankside low current velocity zone are fundamental for bench development. Size‐class frequency data demonstrate that C. cunninghamiana on the benches consists of pure even‐aged stands with most trees clustering near the average diameter. Two benches have similar size class frequency distributions but a third has significantly smaller trees. Recruitment on benches is episodic, may occur in areas open to grazing and is dependent on favourable conditions that allow tree survival. These favourable conditions include high seed availability, low levels of competition, deposition of fine sediments and adequate moisture for tree growth. Although C. cunninghamiana germinates on bars, seedlings are eliminated by prolonged inundation or flood scour and do not reach maturity. Recurring catastrophic floods or a sequence of large floods in rapid succession episodically destroy benches by substantial channel widening and initiate a new phase of bar and bench development. A conceptual model of the conversion of point bars to benches by thick mud deposition and C. cunninghamiana recruitment has been developed for sand‐bed streams draining similar sandstone catchments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The spatial and temporal patterns of aggradation in a temperate,upland, gravel‐bed river

Intensive field monitoring of a reach of upland gravel‐bed river illustrates the temporal and spatial variability of in‐channel sedimentation. Over the six‐year monitoring period, the mean bed level in the channel has risen by 0·17 m with a maximum bed level rise of 0·5 m noted at one location over a five month winter period. These rapid levels of aggradation have a profound impact on the number and duration of overbank flows with flood frequency increasing on average 2·6 times and overbank flow time increasing by 12·8 hours. This work raises the profile of coarse sediment transfer in the design and operation of river management, specifically engineering schemes. It emphasizes the need for the implementation of strategic monitoring programmes before engineering work occurs to identify zones where aggradation is likely to be problematic. Exploration of the sediment supply and transfer system can explain patterns of channel sedimentation. The complex spatial, seasonal and annual variability in sediment supply and transfer raise uncertainties into the system's response to potential changes in climate and land‐use. Thus, there is a demand for schemes that monitor coarse sediment transfer and channel response. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Morphodynamics of a 1000‐year flood in the Kamp River,Austria, and impacts on floodplain morphology

This paper investigates the impact of a 1000‐year flood in August 2002 on floodplains and valley morphology of an Austrian mixed alluvial bed rock river. Discharges with a recurrence interval between 500 and 2000 years caused distinctive overbank scouring and material deposition in the floodplains. After the 1000‐year flood, those morphologically affected areas were at random intervals documented over the whole longitudinal profile. In addition to overbank erosion in curved sections (cut‐offs), the river bed locally widened, floodplain stripping occurred and local overbank scours were documented along straight parts of the river. A hydrodynamic‐numerical model, combined with field measurements, was used to analyse the cause of these erosional landforms. Based on the modelled hydraulic conditions for a one‐year flood (30–78 m³ s^–1) and the catastrophic 2002 event (700–800 m³ s^–1), the numerical results allowed a cause‐effect study with 19 parameters. Deterministic and statistical analysis (ANOVA, discriminant analysis) showed that the morphodynamic effects of the 2002 flood were influenced by the variability of valley morphology of the Kamp River, which led partially to supercritical flow during flood constriction. These processes were in some cases also anthropogenically influenced. Lateral constriction and expansion of the valley geometry over short distances led to scouring and aggradation within the inundated areas during the event. These morphological features were therefore responsible for the elongated scour holes in the floodplains. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elevation adjustments of paired natural levees during flooding of the Saskatchewan River

Natural levees control the exchange of water between an alluvial channel and its floodplain, but little is known about the spatial distribution and evolution of levee heights. The summer 2005 flood of the Saskatchewan River (Cumberland Marshes, east‐central Saskatchewan) inundated large areas of floodplain for up to seven weeks, forming prominent new deposits on natural levees along main‐stem channels. Measurements of flood‐deposit thickness and crest heights of 61 levee pairs show that the thickest deposits occur on the lower pre‐flood levee in 80% of the sites, though no clear relationship exists between deposit thickness and magnitude of height difference. Only 16% of the pairs displayed thicker deposits on the higher levee, half of which occurred at sites where relatively clear floodbasin waters re‐entered turbid channels during general flooding. Difference in crest elevation (ΔE) between paired levees is approximately log‐normally distributed, both before and after the flood, though with different mean values. Supplemental observations from tank experiments indicate that during near‐bankfull flows, temporally and spatially variable deposition and erosion occur on levees due to backwater effects associated with nearby channel bars and irregular rises of the channel bed forced by channel extension. During floods, preferential deposition in lows tends to even out crest heights. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Meltwater discharge through the subglacial bed and its land‐forming consequences from numerical experiments in the Polish lowland during the last glaciation

Numerical experiments suggest that the last glaciation severely affected the upper lithosphere groundwater system in NW Poland: primarily its flow pattern, velocities and fluxes. We have simulated subglacial groundwater flow in two and three spatial dimensions using finite difference codes for steady‐state and transient conditions. The results show how profoundly the ice sheet modifies groundwater pressure heads beneath and some distance beyond the ice margin. All model runs show water discharge at the ice forefield driven by ice‐sheet‐thickness‐modulated, down‐ice‐decreasing hydraulic heads. In relation to non‐glacial times, the transient 3D model shows significant changes in the groundwater flow directions in a regionally extensive aquifer ca. 90 m below the ice–bed interface and up to 40 km in front of the glacier. Comparison with empirical data suggests that, depending on the model run, only between 5 and 24% of the meltwater formed at the ice sole drained through the bed as groundwater. This is consistent with field observations documenting abundant occurrence of tunnel valleys, indicating that the remaining portion of basal meltwater was evacuated through a channelized subglacial drainage system. Groundwater flow simulation suggests that in areas of very low hydraulic conductivity and adverse subglacial slopes water ponding at the ice sole was likely. In these areas the relief shows distinct palaeo‐ice lobes, indicating fast ice flow, possibly triggered by the undrained water at the ice–bed interface. Owing to the abundance of low‐permeability strata in the bed, the simulated groundwater flow depth is less than ca. 200 m. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High-harmonic geoid signatures related to glacial isostatic adjustment and their detectability by GOCE

The Earth’s asthenosphere and lower continental crust can regionally have viscosities that are one to several orders of magnitude smaller than typical mantle viscosities. As a consequence, such shallow low-viscosity layers could induce high-harmonic (spherical harmonics 50–200) gravity and geoid anomalies due to remaining isostasy deviations following Late-Pleistocene glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Such high-harmonic geoid and gravity signatures would depend also on the detailed ice and meltwater loading distribution and history.ESA’s Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite mission, planned for launch in Summer 2008, is designed to map the quasi-static geoid with centimeter accuracy and gravity anomalies with milligal accuracy at a resolution of 100 km or better. This might offer the possibility of detecting gravity and geoid effects of low-viscosity shallow earth layers and differences of the effects of various Pleistocene ice decay scenarios. For example, our predictions show that for a typical low-viscosity crustal zone GOCE should be able to discern differences between ice-load histories down to length scales of about 150 km.One of the major challenges in interpreting such high-harmonic, regional-scale, geoid signatures in GOCE solutions will be to discriminate GIA-signatures from various other solid-earth contributions. It might be of help here that the high-harmonic geoid and gravity signatures form quite characteristic 2D patterns, depending on both ice load and low-viscosity zone model parameters.     

Use of GRACE determined secular gravity rates for glacial isostatic adjustment studies in North-America

Monthly geopotential spherical harmonic coefficients from the GRACE satellite mission are used to determine their usefulness and limitations for studying glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in North-America. Secular gravity rates are estimated by unweighted least-squares estimation using release 4 coefficients from August 2002 to August 2007 provided by the Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas. Smoothing is required to suppress short wavelength noise, in addition to filtering to diminish geographically correlated errors, as shown in previous studies. Optimal cut-off degrees and orders are determined for the destriping filter to maximize the signal to noise ratio. The halfwidth of the Gaussian filter is shown to significantly affect the sensitivity of the GRACE data (with respect to upper mantle viscosity and ice loading history). Therefore, the halfwidth should be selected based on the desired sensitivity.It is shown that increase in water storage in an area south west of Hudson Bay, from the summer of 2003 to the summer of 2006, contributes up to half of the maximum estimated gravity rate. Hydrology models differ in the predictions of the secular change in water storage, therefore even 4-year trend estimates are influenced by the uncertainty in water storage changes. Land ice melting in Greenland and Alaska has a non-negligible contribution, up to one-fourth of the maximum gravity rate.The estimated secular gravity rate shows two distinct peaks that can possibly be due to two domes in the former Pleistocene ice cover: west and south east of Hudson Bay. With a limited number of models, a better fit is obtained with models that use the ICE-3G model compared to the ICE-5G model. However, the uncertainty in interannual variations in hydrology models is too large to constrain the ice loading history with the current data span. For future work in which GRACE will be used to constrain ice loading history and the Earth's radial viscosity profile, it is important to include realistic uncertainty estimates for hydrology models and land ice melting in addition to the effects of lateral heterogeneity.     

Hillslope–channel sediment transfer in a slope failure event: Wet Swine Gill,Lake District,northern England

This paper describes and analyses a hillslope–channel slope failure event that occurred at Wet Swine Gill, Lake District, northern England. This comprised a hillslope slide (180 m³, c. 203 ± 36 t), which coupled with the adjacent stream, resulting in a channelized debris flow and fluvial flood. The timing of the event is constrained between January and March 2002. The hillslope failure occurred in response to a rainfall/snowmelt trigger, on ground recently disturbed by a heather moorland fire and modified by artificial drainage. Slide and flow dynamics are estimated using reconstructed velocity and discharge values along the sediment transfer path. There is a rapid downstream reduction in both maximum velocity, from 9·8 to 1·3 m s^?1; and maximum discharge, ranging from 33·5 to 2·4 m³ s^?1. A volumetric sediment budget quantified a high degree of coupling between the hillslope and immediate channel (～92%: 167 m³), but virtually all of the sediment was retained in the first‐order tributary channel. Approximately 44% (81 m³) of the slide volume was retained in the run‐up deposit, and termination of the debris flow prior to the main river meant that the remainder did not discharge into the fluvial system downstream. These results suggest poor transmission of sediment to the main river at the time of the event, but importantly an increase in available material for post‐event sediment transfer processes within the small upland tributary. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.