形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报

简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展，研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈”，但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在21世纪前10年，形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术，开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此，对当前的研究工作提出了12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。     

On water ice formation in interstellar clouds

A model is proposed for the formation of water ice mantles on grains in interstellar clouds. This occurs by direct accretion of monomers from the gas, be they formed by gas or surface reactions. The formation of the first monolayer requires a minimum extinction of interstellar radiation, sufficient to lower the grain temperature to the point where thermal evaporation of monomers is just offset by monomer accretion from the gas. This threshold is mainly determined by the adsorption energy of water molecules on the grain material; for hydrocarbon material, chemical simulation places this energy between 0.5 and 2 kcal mol⁻¹, which sets the (true) visible extinction threshold at a few magnitudes. However, realistic distributions of matter in a cloud will usually add to this an unrelated amount of cloud core extinction, which can explain the large dispersion of observed (apparent) thresholds. Once the threshold is crossed, all available water molecules in the gas are quickly adsorbed, because the grain cools down and the adsorption energy on ice is higher than on bare grain. The relative thickness of the mantle, and, hence, the slope of  τ₃( A _v)  depend only on the available water vapour, which is a small fraction of the oxygen abundance. Chemical simulation was also used to determine the adsorption sites and energies of O and OH on hydrocarbons and study the dynamics of formation of water molecules by surface reactions with gaseous H atoms, as well as their chances to stick in situ.     

Late Holocene great earthquakes and relative sea‐level change at Kenai,southern Alaska

Kenai, located on the west coast of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, subsided during the great earthquake of AD 1964. Regional land subsidence is recorded within the estuarine stratigraphy as peat overlain by tidal silt and clay. Reconstructions using quantitative diatom transfer functions estimate co‐seismic subsidence (relative sea‐level rise) between 0.28±0.28 m and 0.70±0.28 m followed by rapid post‐seismic recovery. Stratigraphy records an earlier co‐seismic event as a second peat‐silt couplet, dated to ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP with 1.14±0.28 m subsidence. Two decimetre‐scale relative sea‐level rises are more likely the result of glacio‐isostatic responses to late Holocene and Little Ice Age glacier expansions rather than to co‐seismic subsidence during great earthquakes. Comparison with other sites around Cook Inlet, at Girdwood and Ocean View, helps in constructing regional patterns of land‐level change associated with three great earthquakes, AD 1964, ～950–850 cal. yr BP and ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP. Each earthquake has a different spatial pattern of co‐seismic subsidence which indicates that assessment of seismic hazard in southern Alaska requires an understanding of multiple great earthquakes, not only the most recent. All three earthquakes show a pre‐seismic phase of gradual land subsidence that marked the end of relative land uplift caused by inter‐seismic strain accumulation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Yarkovsky effect as a heat engine

We show how the Yarkovsky effect can be understood as a heat engine. The output of the engine, manifested in the rate of change in semimajor axis of the body, has a maximum at an intermediate heat capacity, depending on the rotation rate of the body. This maximum arises because the work output depends on the product of the solar heat absorbed by the body and transported from its morning to evening side (this am-pm heat flux increases with heat capacity) and the Carnot efficiency (which declines with heat capacity).     

Microwave observations of Saturn's rings: anisotropy in directly transmitted and scattered saturnian thermal emission

We present a new Very Large Array (VLA) image of Saturn, made from data taken in October 1998 at a wavelength of λ3.6 cm. The moderate ring opening angle (B≈15°) allows us to explore direct transmission of microwave photons through the A and C rings. We find a strong asymmetry of photons transmitted through the A ring, but not in the C ring, a new diagnostic of wake structure in the ring particles. We also find a weak asymmetry between east and west for the far side of the ansae. To facilitate quantitative comparison between dynamic models of the A ring and radio observations, we extend our Monte Carlo radiative transfer code (described in Dunn et al., 2002, Icarus 160, 132-160) to include idealized wakes. We show the idealized model can reproduce the properties of dynamic simulations in directly transmitted light. We examine the model behavior in directly transmitted and scattered light over a range of physical and geometric wake parameters. Finally, we present a wake model with a plausible set of physical parameters that quantitatively reproduces the observed intensity and asymmetry of the A ring both across the planet and in the ansae.     

Evolution of Polytropic Reimann Disks in Halos

The equilibrium of elliptical Riemann disks with a polytropic equation of state and their evolution under the influence of viscosity and gravitational radiation inside spheroidal halos with a relative surface mass density k. The evolutionary trajectory of a disk inside a halo with k<0.5, which is analogous to the evolution of an isolated disk, differs from that of a disk inside a denser halo.     

On the relation between orbital structure and observed bar morphology

We investigate the morphological relation between the orbits of the central family of periodic orbits ( x ₁ family) and the bar itself using models of test particles moving in a barred potential. We show that different bar morphologies may have as a backbone the same set of x ₁ periodic orbits. We point out that by populating initially axisymmetric stellar discs exponentially with test particles in circular, or almost circular motion, we may end up with a response bar which reveals a shape different in crucial details from that of the individual stable x ₁ orbits. For example, a bar model in which the x ₁ orbits are pure ellipses may have a much more complicated response morphology. This depends on the particular invariant curves around x ₁, which are populated in each model.