Quantifying Storm Tide Risk in Cairns

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)gave rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of naturalhazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. It waswidely recognised that in order to evaluate risk treatment strategies it was necessaryto `measure' the level of risk that already existed and the level of risk that would beencountered with the treatment strategy(s) in place.This paper outlines the methodology developed under the AGSO (now GeoscienceAustralia) Cities Project to quantify the risk associated with storm tide inundation. It includes the methodology for `measuring' the level of community exposure to storm tide hazards and the methodology for `measuring' community vulnerability. The Far North Queensland city of Cairns is used as the case study to demonstrate the application of these methods.     

井孔变径与井水位的固体潮效应

根据多孔介质渗流理论和弹性理论，在井孔变径条件下，得出水井含水层系统对潮汐信号响应的偏微分方程，认为井径变化相当于改变了井水柱的有效高度，从而影响了水井含水层系统的固有振动周期。分析了井孔变径对潮汐信号响应的周期特征，认为当含水层水体很大（含水层水平面积比井孔面积大得多），且含水层的渗透系数也很大的条件下，井径变化对井水位固体潮响应幅度影响很小     

Assimilating data into open ocean tidal models

The problem of deriving tidal fields from observations by reason of incompleteness and imperfectness of every data set practically available has an infinitely large number of allowable solutions fitting the data within measurement errors and hence can be treated as ill-posed. Therefore, interpolating the data always relies on some a priori assumptions concerning the tides, which provide a rule of sampling or, in other words, a regularization of the ill-posed problem. Data assimilation procedures used in large scale tide modeling are viewed in a common mathematical framework as such regularizations. It is shown that they all (basis functions expansion, parameter estimation, nudging, objective analysis, general inversion, and extended general inversion), including those (objective analysis and general inversion) originally formulated in stochastic terms, may be considered as utilizations of one of the three general methods suggested by the theory of ill-posed problems. The problem of grid refinement critical for inverse methods and nudging is discussed.     

Maximum Storm Surge Curve Due to Global Warming for the European North Sea Region During the 20th–21st Century

Computations of storm surges during the 20th century needs to incorporate globalwarming of about 0.6 °C ± 0.2 °C (IPCC, 2001). In order totake this global warming into consideration, the development of all storm surgesoccurred during the 20th century have been analysed. The study comprises determiningto what degree the storm surge curve and storm surge level depend on each other. Thisfact can be used to calculate a maximum storm surge curve and each single storm surgeevent can be summarised. The tendency of the surge and wind parameters do not showthat this maximum storm surge levels in the 20th century will occur earlier than predicted, however, the global warming of 0.6 °C will extend the duration of the mean storm surge curve.     

Preliminary study on variation characteristics of ocean tide dynamic stress in crust and its relationship with earthquakes

~~Preliminary study on variation characteristics of ocean tide dynamic stress in crust and its relationship with earthquakes@陆明勇$China Center for Earthquake Disaster Emergency and SAR,Beijing 100049,China @郑文衡$Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China①Strong earthquake catalogues in China. Earthquake catalogues reported monthly by Center for Analysis and Prediction, CEA. ①YI Zhi-gang. Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administrati…     

Distribution of chlorophyll-a off the Changjiang River and its dynamic cause interpretation

Red tide,also called harmful algal bloom interna-tionally,is a disaster abnormal phenomenon of oceanecology with an explosive breed or dense assemble ofone or several phytoplanktons in a specific ocean en-vironment condition,colors the seawater,influencesand harms ocean living things.The formation of redtide is controlled mainly by a complex interplay ofbiological,physical and chemical processes,but themost main cause influencing the occurrence of red tideis the seawater eutrophication,i.e.,the…     

天津沿海赤潮发生的基本特征研究

使用《天津市海洋环境状况公报》中的数据,分析天津沿海赤潮发生的特征。通过分析发现2005-2017年天津海域共发生赤潮30次,累计发生面积4 695 km2。天津沿海赤潮发生主要集中在夏季,又以8月最多,占赤潮发生总数的30%。通过赤潮优势种的分析发现近年来天津海域赤潮生物的优势种类有不断增加的趋势。同时本文从水文气象条件诱发赤潮的角度分析得出了天津沿海最易发生赤潮的天气形势,天津沿海25~27℃水温范围内赤潮发生较多,最适宜赤潮发生的风速为3、4级风,风向为东南风、西南风。     

Instantaneous Shorelines as an Intermediate for Island Shoreline Mapping based on Aerial/Satellite Stereo Images

Island shoreline mapping based on field measurements by collecting visually discernible features is costly and even unrealistic to be implemented in practice because of the nonuniqueness, fuzziness, and ambiguity of shoreline features. The MHHW (the mean higher high water) shoreline, i.e., the intersection of the coastal profile with the MHHW, is recommended to be chosen as a significant shoreline indicator of an island. An approach for mapping the MHHW shoreline using the aerial/satellite stereo images is proposed. In the proposed procedure, first, the height difference between the instantaneous shoreline and the MHHW shoreline is calculated by the ocean tide model; then the orthometric/normal height of the instantaneous shoreline is determined from the stereo images; last, the instantaneous shoreline is used as an intermediate for determination of the height of the MHHW shoreline. The proposed procedure is applied to the MiaoZiHu Island located in the East China Sea. Preliminary experimental result shows that in ideal cases, the horizontal positional accuracy of the extracted shoreline can reach 0.2 m from aerial images of 0.1 m resolution.     

中国主要入海河口咸潮入侵变化特征

长江口、钱塘江口和珠江口是受咸潮影响较为严重的区域。本文利用全国沿海海平面变化影响调查、沿海水文观测等数据,分析了近十年长江口、珠江口和钱塘江口咸潮入侵的变化特征及影响。分析结果表明:(1) 2009-2018年,长江口咸潮入侵次数和持续时间均呈减少趋势,该时段长江口共监测到约48次咸潮入侵过程,发生时间集中在9-10月至翌年5月,其中3月和11月入侵次数较多,分别为12次和7次。(2)钱塘江口咸潮入侵过程受沿海季节性海平面影响显著,12月至翌年3月为钱塘江口季节性低海平面期,4-7月上旬径流量较大,上述两个时期钱塘江口受咸潮入侵的影响均较小,7月下旬至11月上旬,钱塘江口处于季节性高海平面期,是咸潮影响的集中时段。(3) 2009-2018年,珠江口共监测到约57次咸潮入侵过程,发生时间集中在9-10月至翌年3-4月,其中1月、2月和10月咸潮入侵次数较多,均超过10次,2015年至今咸潮持续时间明显增加。(4)咸潮入侵次数和持续时间与基础海面和径流量等密切相关,咸潮入侵影响三大河口沿线水厂供水以及工农业生产取水,给沿岸城市的居民生活、工农业生产和渔业养殖等造成一定不利影响。