预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

近十年来我国气候变暖影响研究的若干进展

近年来，我国政府和科技界十分关注气候王馥棠变暖对我国经济发展可能影响的评估, 开展了许多重大项目和课题的研究。该文仅就气候变暖对我国自然植被、农业、森林、水资源、能源利用和区域海平面上升等领域影响评估研究的若干有意义的初步结果简要归纳和评述如下:取自不同GCM模型的未来气候变化情景下的影响评估模拟表明，我国的特征性自然植被类型将会发生明显的变化。同当前气候（1951~1980年）下的模拟分布相比，到2050年我国几乎所有地方的农业种植制度均将发生较大变化；气候变暖将导致复种指数增加和种植方式多样化，但降水与蒸散之间可能出现的负平衡和土壤水分胁迫的增加以及生育期的可能缩短，最终将导致我国主要作物的产量下降。气候变暖对我国水资源最明显的影响将会发生在黄淮海流域，这个区域的水资源供需短缺将大大提高。同时，气候变暖将改变我国室内取暖和降温的能源需求关系:北方冬季取暖的能源消耗将减少, 而南方夏季降温的能源消耗将会增加。海平面的上升将使我国三个主要沿海低洼脆弱区，即珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和黄河三角洲，面临部分遭受海水淹没的威胁。     

The 3D simulation and optimized management model of groundwater systems based on eco-environmental water demand

Through the study of mutual process between groundwater systems and eco-environmental water demand, the eco-environmental water demand is brought into groundwater systems model as the important water consumption item and unification of groundwater’s economic, environmental and ecological functions were taken into account. Based on eco-environmental water demand at Da’an in Jilin province, a three-dimensional simulation and optimized management model of groundwater systems was established. All water balance components of groundwater systems in 1998 and 1999 were simulated with this model and the best optimal exploitation scheme of groundwater systems in 2000 was determined, so that groundwater resource was efficiently utilized and good economic, ecologic and social benefits were obtained.     

洛阳市水资源可利用量研究

以洛阳市为对象，对区域水资源的可利用量进行了研究。区域水资源量包括地表水实际可利用量和地下水实际可利用量。将地表径流中基流部分按比例划出，与河道汛期弃水量加在一起作为河道的生态需水量，从地表水资源量中扣除生态需水量后可得地表水的实际可利用量。将难以利用的地下水量从地下水资源量中扣除后可得地下水实际可利用量。     

A unified formulation of the piecewise exact method for inelastic seismic demand analysis including the P‐delta effect

The non‐linear analysis of single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems provides the essential background information for both strength‐based design and displacement‐based evaluation/design methodologies through the development of the inelastic response spectra. The recursive solution procedure called the piecewise exact method, which is efficiently used for the response analysis of linear SDOF systems, is re‐formulated in this paper in a unified format to analyse the non‐linear SDOF systems with multi‐linear hysteresis models. The unified formulation is also capable of handling the P‐delta effect, which generally involves the negative post‐yield stiffness of the hysteresis loops. The attractiveness of the method lies in the fact that it provides the exact solution when the loading time history is composed of piecewise linear segments, a condition that is perfectly satisfied for the earthquake excitation. Based on simple recursive relationships given for positive, negative and zero effective stiffnesses, the unified form of the piecewise exact method proves to be an extremely powerful and probably the best tool for the SDOF inelastic time‐history and response spectrum analysis including the P‐delta effect. A number of examples are presented to demonstrate the implementation of the method. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal distribution of linear control intensity over the frequency range

In this paper, a control strategy for structural systems is proposed and developed in the frequency domain. The algorithm is substantially based on a linear derivative feedback and a convolution of the control parameter, whose distribution in the frequency field is chosen in such a manner as to comply with the requirements of an ad hoc formulated constrained optimum problem, with the response data monitored until the instant of control action application. Some numerical testing is carried out by referring to given recorded accelerograms, showing a good performance of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

现代区域开发的矿产资源需求生命周期研究及意义

矿产资源是社会经济发展的重要物质基础，受社会经济和科学技术发展的限制，各类矿产资源的需求存在着从初始，增长，停滞和衰落的周期性变化以及明显的空间分嘏差异。     

中国硫的供求现状和展望

从工业和农业两个方面供需现状分析，中国目前硫的供需基本平衡，且供略大于求。展望２０００年，中国硫的供求关系将出现缺口，需进一步开拓硫的潜在资源。从总体上看，目前中国土壤供硫情况尚好，但一些地区已开始出现缺硫和严重缺硫的状况，预测今后土壤缺硫状况将会加剧，希望各有关部门对此应给予充分注意     

静力弹塑性分析(Pushover Analysis)的基本原理和计算实例

阐述了美国两本手册FEMA273／274和ATC-40中关于静力弹塑性分析的基本原理和方法，给出了利用ETABS程序进行适合我国地震烈度分析的计算步骤，并用一框剪结构示例予以说明，表明Pushover方法是目前对结构进行在罕遇地震作用下弹塑性分析的有效方法。     

基于生态经济理论的生态需水计算方法研究

在简述生态需水研究现状的基础上,结合以可持续发展为基础的生态经济理论,提出了基于生态经济思想的生态需水概念,并进行了理论分析.根据生态经济领域中的生态价值理论,确定不同生态需水量条件下的生态价值,进而通过水资源的生态价值与经济价值之间的相互关系确定合适的生态需水量,并通过实例对该方法的具体步骤进行了说明,认为由该法所确定的生态需水量符合客观实际,可以作为生态建设过程中生态需水研究的方法之一.该法通过水资源将生态系统和经济系统联系在一起,对于研究可持续发展条件下的水资源利用有一定的现实意义.