基于SMS的多普勒天气雷达故障报警系统设计

系统设计了一个基于GSM MODEN的短信服务平台。对短信的编码方式、PDU格式等关键技术进行了分析,并用VB语言给出了用AT指令控制下的短信发送流程及相关算法代码。系统采用事件驱动机制,利用定时器进行实时数据的采集、处理及控制,实现了基于GSM的多普勒天气雷达故障短信报警系统设计。     

2007年3月中国东部北方地区一次强灾害性暴风雪事件的成因初探

2007年3月3-5日,中国东部北方地区发生了近50年来历史同期最强的一次暴风雪事件,给该地造成了严莺的灾害和损失.通过分析这次暴风雪事件发生前期和同期的大尺度大气环流异常,探讨形成这次极端天气的可能物理机制.研究结果表明,在这次暴风雪事件发牛的前两周中,存在持续异常的北极涛动、南极涛动、欧亚型遥相关以及北太平洋涛动等大气模态.这些异常环流在中国东部沿岸地区引起了强劲的偏南风,由此给中国东部北方地区源源不断地输送暖湿空气,使得该地的水汽含量和气温不断升高,为这次暴风雪事件的发生准备厂良好的暖空气条件.当3月初大气环流发生调整,极地冷空气南下时,强劲的冷、暖空气交汇于中国东部北方地区,从而在该地形成了强大的冷锋系统,最终导致了这次强暴风雪事件的发生.研究结果表明,在预报与降水相关的天气时,必须考虑事发前期异常大气环流的信息,关注预报区域前期水汽的积累状况,这对于提高降水预报、特别是强降水预报的水平有着重要的意义.     

Ability of an ensemble of regional climate models to reproduce weather regimes over Europe-Atlantic during the period 1961–2000

One of the main concerns in regional climate modeling is to which extent limited-area regional climate models (RCM) reproduce the large-scale atmospheric conditions of their driving general circulation model (GCM). In this work we investigate the ability of a multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations to reproduce the large-scale weather regimes of the driving conditions. The ensemble consists of a set of 13 RCMs on a European domain, driven at their lateral boundaries by the ERA40 reanalysis for the time period 1961–2000. Two sets of experiments have been completed with horizontal resolutions of 50 and 25 km, respectively. The spectral nudging technique has been applied to one of the models within the ensemble. The RCMs reproduce the weather regimes behavior in terms of composite pattern, mean frequency of occurrence and persistence reasonably well. The models also simulate well the long-term trends and the inter-annual variability of the frequency of occurrence. However, there is a non-negligible spread among the models which is stronger in summer than in winter. This spread is due to two reasons: (1) we are dealing with different models and (2) each RCM produces an internal variability. As far as the day-to-day weather regime history is concerned, the ensemble shows large discrepancies. At daily time scale, the model spread has also a seasonal dependence, being stronger in summer than in winter. Results also show that the spectral nudging technique improves the model performance in reproducing the large-scale of the driving field. In addition, the impact of increasing the number of grid points has been addressed by comparing the 25 and 50 km experiments. We show that the horizontal resolution does not affect significantly the model performance for large-scale circulation.     

中国夏季极端酷暑的气候统计和趋势分析

Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 300 stations in China from 1958 to 2008, the climatological distribution of the number of days with high temperature extremes （HTEs, maximum temperatures higher than 35℃） are studied with a focus on the long-term trends. Although the number of HTE days display well-defined sandwich spatial structures with significant decreasing trends in central China and increasing trends in northern China and southern China, the authors show that the decrease of HTE days in central China occurs mainly in the early period before the 1980s, and a significant increase of HTE days dominates most of the stations after the 1980s. The authors also reveal that there is a jump-like acceleration in the number of HTE days at most stations across China since the mid 1990s, especially in South China, East China, North China, and northwest China.     

Combining the management of water level regimes and plant structures for waterbird habitat provision in wetlands

The survival of waterbirds depends heavily on habitat, particularly aquatic plants. For each kind of aquatic plant, there are specific water level regime requirements to meet its germination and growth. Previous studies usually focused on the use of water level management to achieve protection and restoration of aquatic plants. However, the water level regimes in many wetlands have been greatly changed and their ecological objectives usually cannot be achieved by water level management alone. Accordingly, this study combined water level management and artificial planting for waterbird habitat provision in wetlands. The Hongze Lake National Wetland Nature Reserve was taken as the research area. In this study, we considered the needs of waterbirds for nesting and foraging, and determined the aquatic plant species to be planted. According to the seasonal water level requirements of these plants, we simulated the plantable areas of different aquatic plants under different water level regimes. We then further optimized the water level regimes according to the needs of waterbirds, and determined the optimal water level management scheme. In addition, we formulated planting principles, explored the planting structure under each water level regime, so that the plant structure can better serve the waterbirds. The results showed that the current water level regime of Hongze Lake is not consistent with the growth rhythm of aquatic plants. Because of the human regulation, the water level of the wetland is high in winter and low in summer, which is contrary to the requirements of aquatic plant growth. A combination of water level regimes and plant structure management, however, could effectively expand the area for waterbird habitat. The results of this study will help wetland managers to make informed decisions about how to restore the waterbird habitat in other similar regulated wetlands.     

Characterization of contrasting flow and thermal regimes in two adjacent subarctic alpine headwaters in Northwest Canada

Alpine headwaters in subarctic regions are particularly sensitive to climate change, yet there is little information on stream thermal regimes in these areas and how they might respond to global warming. In this paper, we characterize and compare the hydrological and thermal regimes of two subarctic headwater alpine streams within an empirical framework. The streams investigated are located within two adjacent catchments with similar geology, size, elevation and landscape, Granger Creek (GC) and Buckbrush Creek (BB), which are part of the Wolf Creek Research Basin in the Yukon Territory, Canada. Hydrometeorological and high-resolution stream temperature data were collected throughout summer 2016. Both sites exhibited a flow regime typical of cold alpine headwater catchments influenced by frozen ground and permafrost. Comparatively, GC was characterized by a flashier response with more extreme flows, than BB. In both sites, stream temperature was highly variable and very responsive to short-term changes in climatic conditions. On average, stream temperature in BB was slightly higher than in GC (respectively 5.8 and 5.7°C), but less variable (average difference between 75th and 25th quantiles of 1.6 and 2.0°C). Regression analysis between mean daily air and stream temperature suggested that a greater relative (to stream flow) groundwater contribution in BB could more effectively buffer atmospheric fluctuations. Heat fluxes were derived and utilized to assess their relative contribution to the energy balance. Overall, non-advective fluxes followed a daily pattern highly correlated to short-wave radiation. G1enerally, solar radiation and latent heat were respectively the most important heat source and sink, while air–water interface processes were major factors driving nighttime stream temperature fluctuations.     

A new analytical solution for assessing climate change impacts on subsurface temperature

Groundwater temperature is an important water quality parameter that affects species distributions in subsurface and surface environments. To investigate the response of subsurface temperature to atmospheric climate change, an analytical solution is derived for a one‐dimensional, transient conduction–advection equation and verified with numerical methods using the finite element code SUTRA. The solution can be directly applied to forward model the impact of future climate change on subsurface temperature profiles or inversely applied to produce a surface temperature history from measured borehole profiles. The initial conditions are represented using superimposed linear and exponential functions, and the boundary condition is expressed as an exponential function. This solution expands on a classic solution in which the initial and boundary conditions were restricted to linear functions. The exponential functions allow more flexibility in matching climate model projections (boundary conditions) and measured temperature–depth profiles (initial conditions). For example, measured borehole temperature data from the Sendai Plain and Tokyo, Japan, were used to demonstrate the improved accuracy of the exponential function for replicating temperature–depth profiles. Also, the improved accuracy of the exponential boundary condition was demonstrated using air temperature anomaly data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These air temperature anomalies were then used to forward model the effect of surficial thermal perturbations in subsurface environments with significant groundwater flow. The simulation results indicate that recharge can accelerate shallow subsurface warming, whereas upward groundwater discharge can enhance deeper subsurface warming. Additionally, the simulation results demonstrate that future groundwater temperatures obtained from the proposed analytical solution can deviate significantly from those produced with the classic solution. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多尺度天气分析理论和应用Ⅰ:基本原理和天气系统的本质

根据大气运动和结构的多尺度特征,提出了大气微团的多重结构模型,认为大气由不同尺度的微团以多重结构的形式组成,即大尺度微团由若干较小尺度的亚微团构成,而亚微团又由更小的微团组成.利用Navier-Stokes方程推导出亚微团的相对运动方程,在背景场处于平衡状态下推导出亚微团运动方程的平衡形式,发现该方程与电磁学的基本方程具有相同形式,并将大气轻、重两种微团与正、负离子进行了类比.根据推导出的方程对天气系统的发生、发展进行了研究,认为天气系统是由于亚微团在环境场作用下发生分离并在环境场的作用下重新组合而形成的,这一过程在初始扰动的作用下开始,在正反馈过程中不断加强并最终达到一种平衡状态;而轻、重两种亚微团之间的引力是天气系统减弱和消亡的重要原因.利用亚微团运动方程和对微团扰动速度的自转分析,推导出天气系统的诊断方程,并利用该方程对大气环境场的分布与天气系统发生的相互关系进行了诊断分析,结果表明,环境场风速的快速变化、高低空急流附近的动能梯度、环境涡度的正值区以及强风速垂直变化等因素对天气系统的形成十分有利.     

浅谈广西省级预报类电视节目改革

从做好公众服务的角度出发,对内容策划、节目包装、制作系统、数据编程、图形表现、主持人综合素质等内容建设为核心,提出了不断提升气象服务品牌价值的理念新的设想.