北京平原区基岩井水位的年动态特征及其成因分析

系统阐述了北京平原区１０口地震地下水位动态观测井及其水位年动态特征，主要分析了降雨与开采对年动态特征的影响，讨论了大同－阳高地震前后某些井水位长期异常的信度     

Development of Artificial Intelligence Technology in Weather Forecast

Numerical weather prediction, which is the major basis of current weather forecast, has some shortcomings, such as the understanding of the law of atmospheric motion, the assimilation and application of observation data, the expression of model physics, etc., leading to the forecast error of weather. The rapid development of artificial intelligence technology in recent years provides a new possibility for the advancement and innovation of weather forecast. In this paper, the background of the development of artificial intelligence, the current situation of the application of artificial intelligence technology to weather forecast and the future development trend are mainly described to account for this possibility. After that, the idea for development of weather forecast technology based on the integration of artificial intelligence and numerical forecast is put forward. Particularly, this study stresses that, in order to advance the AI algorithm of weather forecast in the future, it is requested to focus on the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of atmospheric motion leading to the uncertainty of forecast. Starting from the essence of mathematics and physics, we need to realize the hybrid modeling of mathematics and physics, not only to establish the framework of input-output mapping, but also to provide solutions to the bottleneck problems of weather forecast.     

1904～1907年拉萨气候特征再分析

通过对以《有泰拉萨天气日志》为主的历史文献资料的深入挖掘 ,作者分析了 1 90 4年 2月 9日～ 1 90 7年 4月 1 7日拉萨的气候特征 :气候温暖 ,暖冬现象显著 ,而且 1 90 5年气温高于 1 90 4年 ;干旱气候占主导地位 ,间有多雨期 ;天气多变 ,多风 ,有雾 ;水灾、雪灾、干旱等自然灾害严重。拉萨与全球同时段的气候变化大体一致。     

Application of the hydrologic visibility concept to estimate rainfall measurement quality of two planned weather radars

This paper presents a practical application of the “hydrologic visibility” concept to select the future site of two planned weather radars of the French national network ARAMIS. This selection was realised by simulating the errors in radar rainfall measurement due to interactions of the radar beam with relief, and to the vertical variation of the radar reflectivity with altitude. Results show the interest of these simulations to optimise the radar location according to the objectives of radar coverage. Beyond these results, this paper highlights aspects interesting for hydrology: this type of simulation can be used to assess the radar measurement quality before initiating a quantitative exploitation of radar data, and before making a comparison or a combination with rain gauge data.     

祁连山东部沙尘暴天气成因及气候规律分析

利用我国沙尘暴多发区 ,甘肃省祁连山东部民勤、武威等 4站建站以来近 5 0a的气象资料 ,详细分析了祁连山东部沙尘暴天气发生的成因 ,造成的危害情况及变化规律 ,指出土地沙漠化和大风是造成沙尘暴的主要原因 ,并提出沙尘暴天气的防御对策。     

714SD多普勒雷达在强降水中的应用

本文针对近几年汕头地区出现的强降水天气，重点开展了多普勒天气雷达速度回波及其产品的应用研究，结合相应的天气背景、物理量变化对强度回波和速度场回波作一些分析，归纳总结出台风、冷锋锋面、暖切变、西南急流、脊后槽前辐合区、东风波等不同天气形势下强降水的类型及其回波特征，并尝试性地解释了一些特殊回波的风场结构和天气现象。     

根据天气类型划分欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报产品

该研究的主要目的是找出一种对集合预报产品进行释用的新方法。其基本假定是集合预报要素在一定程度上代表了未来可能发生的天气形势。为了解决天气尺度在中期预报的不可预报性问题 ,引入了天气类型的概念。对集合预报进行划分的方法是 Diday提出的动力模糊法 ,初始划分时的重心由天气类型定义 ,划分用到的距离是位移和最大相关方法。根据城市块 (City- Block)距离找出了影响中国的按冬夏两季划分的天气类型 ,初步划分结果表明 ,欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报系统可以预报出横槽转竖型天气类型的演变情况 ,在夏天的预报效果则没有冬天好。     

我国新一代多普勒天气雷达及其在山西的系统建设

本文介绍了多普勒天气雷达的探测原理和我国“新一代多普勒天气雷达”的基本情况，并进一步对“太原新一代多普革天气雷达”建设的总体设计、布局配置进行了系统分析，对该雷达的基本气象产品及其主要用途进行了分析。     

地市级新天气预报业务流程的开发研究

在借鉴和吸收省内外先进经验的基础上，结合地市气象台预报工作实际，对现在9210工程业务环境下，地市级天气预报业务流程进行深入细致的分析研究，建立起以数值分析预报产品为基础，以人机交互Micaps系统为平台，以提高预报业务效率为目的，综合运用各类信息和多种预报方法制作预报的新天气预报业务流程，并投入实际业务运行，收到了良好的效果。     

濮阳市11月份寒潮天气预报

利用1965-1995年天气图和气象观测资料，分析了濮阳市11月份寒潮的时空分布特征、路径及天气形势，确定了预报指标。