基于印度洋海温信号的我国西北地区东部夏季降水组合降尺度预测方法研究

利用国家气候中心第二代气候模式预测业务系统(BCC-CPSv2)预测产品,引入印度洋海温信号,采用组合降尺度方法建立了西北地区东部汛期降水预测模型。该预测模型对1991—2017年西北地区东部夏季降水的回报技巧较BCC-CPSv2预测技巧显著提高,空间相关系数由0.42提高到0.75,均方根误差明显减小,最多下降达80%。预测模型对降水空间分布型的预测能力较好,很好地回报了典型年份（1987年和2010年）夏季的降水距平百分率分布。通过抓住气象变量的空间分布特征,组合降尺度方法可以修正动力模式产品的预测误差,为西北地区东部夏季降水预测提供科学依据和技术支持,具有较好的应用前景。     

5月南极涛动对青藏高原西部夏季气温影响的诊断分析

青藏高原是全球气候变暖最敏感的地区之一,是北半球夏季最大的热源,其气候响应受到广泛关注。然而,有关南极涛动与青藏高原夏季气温的关系和机理知之甚少。为了研究南极涛动与青藏高原夏季气温的关系,基于1979—2020年英国东安哥拉大学气候研究中心（CRU）的逐月气温、美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的逐月海表面温度和大气环流再分析数据以及南极涛动指数等数据,采用相关、回归、合成分析等方法进行研究。结果表明,北半球夏季青藏高原西部气温与5月南极涛动存在显著负相关,即当5月南极涛动异常偏弱时,夏季青藏高原西部气温异常偏高。其影响过程为,南极涛动为正位相时,在南印度洋中高纬地区出现“负-正-负”的经向“三极子”海温模态,该模态可持续到夏季,在印度洋形成异常的纬向-垂直环流,相应在热带西印度洋和东印度洋-海洋性大陆之间的降水异常导致热带正“偶极子”降水模态,通过该降水模态在青藏高原西部引起异常反气旋环流和下沉运动,有利于高原西部气温偏高。研究结果显示,海洋的热惯性在“延长”南极涛动影响过程中起着重要的桥梁作用,可为青藏高原夏季气温预测提供科学依据。     

Analysis of trends in annual streamflow to the Arctic Ocean

There is increasing interest in the magnitude of the flow of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean due to its impacts on the biogeophysical and socio‐economic systems in the north and its influence on global climate. This study examines freshwater flow based on a dataset of 72 rivers that either directly or indirectly contribute flow to the Arctic Ocean or reflect the hydrologic regime of areas contributing flow to the Arctic Ocean. Annual streamflow for the 72 rivers is categorized as to the nature and location of the contribution to the Arctic Ocean, and composite series of annual flows are determined for each category for the period 1975 to 2015. A trend analysis is then conducted for the annual discharge series assembled for each category. The results reveal a general increase in freshwater flow to the Arctic Ocean with this increase being more prominent from the Eurasian rivers than from the North American rivers. A comparison with trends obtained from an earlier study ending in 2000 indicates similar trend response from the Eurasian rivers, but dramatic differences from some of the North American rivers. A total annual discharge increase of 8.7 km³/y/y is found, with an annual discharge increase of 5.8 km³/y/y observed for the rivers directly flowing to the Arctic Ocean. The influence of annual or seasonal climate oscillation indices on annual discharge series is also assessed. Several river categories are found to have significant correlations with the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, no significant association with climate indices is found for the river categories leading to the largest freshwater contribution to the Arctic Ocean.     

The Falkland Islands’ palaeoecological response to millennial‐scale climate perturbations during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition: Implications for future vegetation stability in the southern ocean islands

Oceanic island flora is vulnerable to future climate warming, which is likely to promote changes in vegetation composition, and invasion of non‐native species. Sub‐Antarctic islands are predicted to experience rapid warming during the next century; therefore, establishing trajectories of change in vegetation communities is essential for developing conservation strategies to preserve biological diversity. We present a Late‐glacial‐early Holocene (16 500–6450 cal a bp ) palaeoecological record from Hooker's Point, Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), South Atlantic. This period spans the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition, providing insight into biological responses to abrupt climate change. Pollen and plant macrofossil records appear insensitive to climatic cooling during the Late‐glacial, but undergo rapid turnover in response to regional warming. The absence of trees throughout the Late‐glacial‐early Holocene enables the recognition of far‐travelled pollen from southern South America. The first occurrence of Nothofagus (southern beech) may reflect changes in the strength and/or position of the Southern Westerly Wind Belt during the Late‐glacial period. Peat inception and accumulation at Hooker's Point is likely to be promoted by the recalcitrant litter of wind‐adapted flora. This recalcitrant litter helps to explain widespread peatland development in a comparatively dry environment, and suggests that wind‐adapted peatlands can remain carbon sinks even under low precipitation regimes. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Quaternary Science Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Surface cyclopoid copepod assemblages in relation to environmental conditions near undisturbed coral reefs of Minicoy,southeastern Arabian Sea,a part of the Indian Ocean

The cruise conducted in the spring inter-monsoon (pre-monsoon) of April 2015 in the frame of a funded project epitomized an open ocean survey that allowed procuring a quasi-synoptic picture of cyclopoid copepod community structure in 18 open ocean stations of the Minicoy Island, Lakshadweep archipelago, off the southwestern Indian coast, based on the analysis of standing stock and composition in the integrated 0–10 m water column. The main objective was to explore the community structure of cyclopoid copepods prevailing here and which environmental variable influences the same. It is witnessed that sea surface temperature (SST) (30.42 ± 0.19°C), sea surface salinity (SSS) (33.56 ± 1.15 psu), and dissolved oxygen (DO) (4.32 ± 0.06 ml/L) with SSS and DO are the best matching variables diversifying cyclopoid copepod species (av. abundance 700 ± 386 no. of individuals/100 m³). Average zooplankton biomass (0.03 ml/m³) and abundance (8,989 ± 3,866 no. of individuals/100 m³) were also observed. Fifty-one cyclopoid copepod species belonging to four families and seven genera were identified, with the dominance of high saline species such as Sapphirina, Copilia, Farranula, and Oncaea. An abundance biomass curve (ABC) plot analysis indicated an undisturbed community with normal environmental conditions. TAXDTEST (taxonomic distinctness) depicted a diverse condition where all points clustered together within a 95% confidence level. Our results indicate that the cyclopoid copepod assemblage near Minicoy Island is a diverse, undisturbed community and hypothesize that the stable environmental conditions during pre-monsoon (spring inter-monsoon) preferred the diversification of cyclopoid copepods with the prevalence of high saline species. The data evolved could be used as a standard reference/benchmark to detect any deviation from an undisturbed/diverse community status of Minicoy Island in the looming scenario of climate change in and around the Indian Ocean.     

The influence of ENSO and PDO on tropical Andean glaciers and their impact on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin

Recent decades, particularly since the late 1970s, have witnessed a rapid retreat of glaciers in the tropical Andes. We compiled the changes in glacier surfaces along the eastern cordilleras of the tropical Andes of Peru and Bolivia since the early 1980s from the literature. Water levels from two Brazilian river basins in the Amazon basin (one (Madeira River) glacially fed by meltwater from the Andes and the other (Envira River) non‐glacially fed), were analysed for a 30‐year period between 1985?2014. Furthermore, precipitation data near these two basins were also analysed in order to understand the differential contributions of glacier melting and rainfall. Variations in the water levels from the glacially fed Madeira River showed that some years were associated with higher water levels even when the precipitation remained low during the corresponding season (May‐October). This observation was common when El Niño events occurred during the positive phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Water levels in glacier‐fed Madeira River were slightly higher during the periods where El Niño and warm PDO co‐occurred. On the other hand, water levels in the Envira River were precipitation dependent; water levels were higher when the rainfall was high.     

卡尔斯伯格脊 60°~61°E洋脊段多波束后向散射特征及其对构造与岩浆作用强度的指示

多波束声纳数据可以有效记录海底地形地貌和底质特征信息。本文利用船载多波束数据对慢速扩张的卡尔斯伯格脊60°~61°E洋脊段的典型构造地貌单元的后向散射强度特征进行了研究,在此基础上,分析了该洋脊段的构造和岩浆作用强度特征。结果表明,洋脊段I以构造拉张作用占主导,脊轴及附近后向散射强度为-29 dB左右,裂谷壁高差可达1 200 m以上,裂谷内断裂发育,裂谷侧翼高度与裂谷宽度的比值为78.7~126.2,裂谷两侧翼部线性构造较少,但轴向正断层面更宽,倾角更小;与洋脊段裂谷中段相比,末端火山活动频率较低但喷发规模较大,火山机构数量和体积也更大,且可发育深大断裂获取深部热源。洋脊段II以岩浆作用占主导,脊轴及附近后向散射强度达-35 dB,裂谷内轴向火山脊发育,裂谷壁高差小于500 m,裂谷侧翼高度与裂谷宽度的比值为77.6~116.8,裂谷两侧翼部线性构造数量众多、长宽比较大且呈近似对称,相邻线性构造之间沉积物广泛分布。通过提取挖掘与底质属性密切相关的多波束后向散射强度数据,结合海底地形地貌的分析,可以为洋中脊的构造和岩浆作用强度的定量研究提供有效的证据。     

热带东印度洋春季浮游植物群落结构空间特征分析

基于2013年3月至5月采集的热带东印度洋海域(10.0°S～4.0°N, 83.0°～97.5°E)浮游植物水样样品，分析了其种类组成、优势类群、细胞丰度等群落特征参数，综合比较了水平和垂向上浮游植物种类及丰度的差异性，初步探讨了其成因。结果表明:2013年春季热带东印度洋微型浮游植物共鉴定出306种，主要由硅藻、甲藻、金藻、蓝藻、裸藻和隐藻六大门类组成，其优势类群主要以粒径较小的隐藻、微型甲藻、菱形藻、环沟藻等为主。水平分布上，各水层浮游植物细胞丰度分布趋势相似，但斑块特征明显，其高值区位于88°E断面赤道以南次表层水域(30 m、75 m)，局部区域细胞丰度值可达104 cells/L以上；与其毗邻的东南部、东部水域为低值区，并向赤道延伸。垂直剖面上，硅藻和甲藻广泛分布在各取样深度，但分布特征有明显的空间差异和规律，0 m、30 m大部分站位硅藻种类比例在0.2～0.3甚至更低，甲藻在0.7～0.8，随着水层加深(75 m、100 m、150 m、300 m)，硅藻种类占比上升到0.5～0.6，甲藻降低到0.4～0.5，无论硅藻还是甲藻种类数75 m层最丰富。30 m和75 m水层细胞丰度明显高于其他水层。甲藻是热带东印度洋微型浮游植物种类和细胞丰度的重要贡献者，低生物量海域表现的更为明显，贡献率大于80%。该研究将极大丰富东印度洋浮游植物群落空间特征基础信息较匮乏的现状，为量化、评估该海域的生物资源提供数据支撑。     

Hercynian subduction-related processes within the metamorphic continental crust in Calabria (southern Italy)

Linking the deformation history of mylonitized continental rocks to the progress of devolatilization reactions that trigger reaction softening is critical for the understanding of crustal scale processes. We have analysed the field geometries and microstructures of deformed rocks within the southern Hercynian belt in Calabria, as well as modelled the pressure–temperature–deformation (P–T–d) trajectory of a main ductile shear zone that tectonically coupled the deeper crustal Mammola Paragneiss Unit with the upper crustal Stilo–Pazzano Phyllite Unit. P–T modelling of the mylonitic Mammola Paragneiss Unit was performed through calculation of phase equilibrium diagrams with the software thermocalc in the MnNCKFMASHTO model system. The prograde P–T–d trajectory is based on the zoning profiles of garnet porphyroblasts and their mineral inclusions, primarily barroisite and epidote. P–T modelling shows that peak metamorphic conditions of ~0.9 GPa and 585°C were reached during a D_n-1 under-thrusting event. The following exhumation during the D_n mylonitic event, and contact metamorphism during D_n+1 and D_n+2 folding events, have also been modelled because they are essential to restore the previous tectono-metamorphic history. The exhumation trajectory was modelled down to 0.3 GPa with temperatures of 440–460°C, under fluid-deficient conditions, as well as the final late Carboniferous contact metamorphism up to T_max of 680–720°C. The prograde path shows clear evidence for thermal buffering during garnet growth at the expense of chlorite, with a heating-dominated stage after chlorite breakdown. Subsequently, a rheological change associated with epidote breakdown (i.e. reaction softening) occurred, highlighted by a net steepening of the P/T trajectory towards the pressure peak. On the basis of the barroisite inclusions within garnet porphyroblasts as well as the ‘hairpin’ shape of the reconstructed P–T–d path (before contact metamorphism), we infer that the unusual low T/P gradient for the Hercynian crust exposed in the Mammola Paragneiss Unit records its involvement in the Palaeotethys–Gondwana subduction beneath Laurussia during D_n-1 under-thrusting. We present a new palaeotectonic interpretation along the southern Hercynian belt in Calabria during the Upper Mississippian–Lower Pennsylvanian, that is consistent with previous geochronology studies.     

鳞侧石鳖属(Leptochiton)一物种在西太平洋雅普海沟分布的新记录

蛟龙号载人潜水器在位于雅普海沟北部6 745 m深处的底栖沉积环境中采集到两只石鳖样本，这是石鳖物种分布于此的新记录。形态学和DNA分子标记均支持两只石鳖为鳞侧石鳖属（Leptochiton）同一物种。该种在形态上与L.vanbellei和L.deforgesi接近；在系统发生方面，与L.vanbellei，L.deforgesi和L.boucheti的亲缘关系密切。这是截至目前世界石鳖分布报道的第三深度记录。