概论机场能见度的准确预报

通过对影响能见度的因素的分析，提出了一种能见度预报方法－综合分析法，极大地提高了能见度的预报准确率。     

Discrimination of sedimentary facies by association analysis

The ability of association analysis to discriminate sedimentary facies was tested on Purdy's modal analyses of modern sediments of the Great Bahama Bank. Purdy's data set has served in the past as a standard reference for evaluating various multivariate classification algorithms. In order to adapt Purdy's data to association analysis, the percent abundance of the 12 constituents was converted to binary form by dichotomizing each variable on its mean value. The results obtained by association analysis are virtually identical to those obtained by Purdy and other authors. The same four main sedimentary facies were discriminated; 86% of the samples were identically classified (97% when misclassified borderline cases are counted as matches); the total partition variance of the classification is only negligibly greater (4%); and the grouping of the variables yielded the same four groups. The rank order of the three division-attributes responsible for the sample classification is fines, oolites, and corals. Association analysis has been employed by other authors to differentiate meaningful facies groups in studies of ancient reef carbonates, modern reef sediments, and heavy minerals in stream sediments. In all these studies, the results were found to be compatible with those obtained by using the continuous quantitative measurements, indicating that qualitative binary data may often be sufficient for the purpose of facies discrimination in many branches of geology and that association analysis is an effective method for this purpose.     

变形分析的Bayes估计与检验

由于观测条件的变化，观测值方差将产生随机波动。本文根据Ｂａｙｅｓ估计理论，推导了线性模型待估参数的分布函数及观测值方差估计公式，并将其用于位移检验。计算结果表明，在同样的置信度下，本方法更符合实际。文中还对参数估值的统计性质进行了讨论。     

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.     

APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL PARAMETER DATABASE TO ESTABLISHMENT OF UNIT POPULATION DATABASE

Now GIS is turning into a good tool in handling geographical, economical, and population data, so we can obtain more and more information from these data. On the other hand, in some cases, for a calamity, such as hurricane, earthquake, flood, drought etc., or a decision-making, such as setting up a broadcasting transmitter, building a chemical plant etc., we have to evaluate the total population in the region influenced by a calamity or a project. In this paper, a method is put forward to evaluate the population in such special region. Through exploring the correlation of geographical parameters and the distribution of people in the same region by means of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, unit population database (1km× 1km) is established. In this way, estimating the number of people in a special region is capable by adding up the population in every grid involved in this region boundary. The geographical parameters are obtained from topographic database and DEM database on the scale of     

CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS ON IMAGES OF JIANGXI PROVINCE AS A TOURIST DESTINATION

1IN T R O D U C T IO NAn image isa setofbelief,s ideasand impressionsthatapersonholdsaboutan object(KOTLER,1991).Similar-lydefinitionistheimage of a destinationas thesum ofbelief,sideasand impressionsthatpeoplehave ofa placeor destination(CROMPTON,1979;KO…     

Short-term Climate Characteristics at Ny-(A)lesund over the Arctic Tundra Area

Based on the Germany Koldwey Station's 1994-2003 conventional observation hourly data, this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the short-term climate characteristics for an arctic tundra region (Ny-(A)lesund island) where our first arctic expedition station (Huanghe Station) was located. Affected by the North Atlantic warming current, this area has a humid temperate climate, and the air temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose above 0 ℃ even during deep winter season during our research period. The wind speed in this area was low and appeared most at southeast direction. We find that the temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose in the faster rate (0.68 ℃/10 a) than those at the whole Arctic area. Compared with the floating ices where our expedition conducted in the Arctic, Ny-(A)lesund was warmer and more humid and had lower wind speed. Comparison of the near surface air temperature derived by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to the conventional measurements conducted at the Koldwey site in Ny-(A)lesund area shows a good agreement for winter season and a significant difference for summer season.