WEKU – a GIS-Supported stochastic model of groundwater residence times in upper aquifers for the supraregional groundwater management

 The supraregional GIS-supported stochastical model, WEKU, for the determination of groundwater residence times in the upper aquifers of large groundwater provinces is presented. Using a two-dimensional analytical model of groundwater flow, groundwater residence times are determined within two extreme cases. In the first case, maximal groundwater residence times are calculated, representing the part of groundwater, that is drained by the main surface water of a groundwater catchment area. In the second case, minimal groundwater residence times for drainage into the nearest surface water are determined. Using explicit distribution functions of the input parameters, mean values as well as potential ranges of variations of the groundwater residence times are derived. The WEKU model has been used for the determination of groundwater residence times throughout Germany. The model results – mean values and deviations of the groundwater velocity and the maximal and minimal groundwater residence times in the upper aquifers – are presented by general maps and discussed in detail. It is shown that the groundwater residence times in the upper aquifer vary regionally, differentiated between less than 1 year and more than 2000 years. Using this information, the time scales can be specified, until measures to remediate polluted groundwater resources may lead to a substantial groundwater quality improvement in the different groundwater provinces of Germany. With respect to its supraregional scale of application, the WEKU model may serve as a useful tool for the supraregional groundwater management on a state, federal or international level. Received: 15 August 1995 · Accepted: 15 October 1995     

RELAXING ASSUMPTIONS OF PERFECT INFORMATION IN PARK VISITATION MODELS*

Variables related to urban park awareness are identified and methods for relaxing assumptions of perfect information in park use models are discussed. Park awareness is related to park characteristics (age and degree of development of the park), population characteristics (race, age, length of residence, recreation participation), and distance. Park attributes are stronger predictors of both park awareness and use than is distance. These findings parallel similar research on the cognitive aspects of shopping decisions.     

Directions and possibilities of mathematical geology

This paper considers the present state of mathematical geology. Three directions are recognized: applied, theoretical, and mathematical. Applied mathematical geology includes formal use of mathematics to solve problems and computer processing of data. Success is achieved by a correspondence of mathematical methods used to the nature of geological data. This correspondence can be demonstrated by purely mathematical means. Theoretical mathematical geology uses mathematics as a language of geology; however, a number of methodological problems must be solved: formalization of initial geological concepts and creation of a strict conceptual basis, substantiation of initial principles of mathematical simulation, creation of theoretical geological models, problems of elementary and coincidence in geology, and methodological substantiations of possibilities of any mathematical model to approximate geological models. The essense and significance of these problems are considered. The main task of mathematical geology is to prove its correspondence to the nature of the geological objects studied, geological data obtained, and geological problems solvable. Finally, the main problems of mathematical geology are not so much mathematical as geological and methodological.     

岩体三维节点偶对分析及其应用

本文讨论了节点偶对分析的三维扩展。节点偶对分析是针对摩擦滑动节理单元的约束边界进行的序列矢量判定。在三维节理单元的分析中,几何约束和相应的力学判据极为复杂,采用节点偶对等效结合力方法才能迎刃而解。文中对三维转向节理模型的分析得到合理的结果,它表明本文所提出的方法可成功地应用于节理岩体的有限元分析。     

地壳演化与成矿作用——以川滇地洼系“四层楼”铜矿床序列为例

提出川滇地洼系“四层楼”铜矿床序列的形成与陆壳演化的成生联系,是与本区陆壳由前地槽—地槽—地台—地洼演化各阶段与之相匹配的成矿作用的产物.与此同时,并总结了本区“四层楼”铜矿床序列的成矿作用具有明显的继承性、新生性、旋回性及层控性四大特点和多因复成矿床的成矿模式.     

Alluvial architecture of the Holocene Rhine–Meuse delta (the Netherlands)

Ancient fluvial successions often act as hydrocarbon reservoirs. Sub‐surface data on the alluvial architecture of fluvial successions are often incomplete and modelling is performed to reconstruct the stratigraphy. However, all alluvial architecture models suffer from the scarcity of field data to test and calibrate them. The purposes of this study were to quantify the alluvial architecture of the Holocene Rhine–Meuse delta (the Netherlands) and to determine spatio‐temporal trends in the architecture. Five north–south orientated cross‐sections, perpendicular to the general flow direction, were compiled for the fluvial‐dominated part of the delta. These sections were used to calculate the width/thickness ratios of fluvial sandbodies (SBW/SBT) and the proportions of channel‐belt deposits (CDP), clastic overbank deposits (ODP) and organic material (OP) in the succession. Furthermore, the connectedness ratio (CR) between channel belts was calculated for each cross‐section. Distinct spatial and temporal trends in the alluvial architecture were found. SBW/SBT ratios decrease by a factor of ca 4 in a downstream direction. CDP decreases from ca 0·7 (upstream) to ca 0·3 (downstream). OP increases from less than 0·05 in the upstream part of the delta to more than 0·25 in the downstream delta. ODP is approximately constant (0·4). CR is ca 0·25 upstream, which is approximately two times larger than in the downstream part of the delta. Furthermore, CDP in the downstream Rhine–Meuse delta increases after 3000 cal yr BP. These trends are attributed to variations in available accommodation space, floodplain geometry and channel‐belt size. For instance, channel belts tend to narrow in a downstream direction, which reduces SBW/SBT, CDP and CR. Tectonics cause local deviations in the general architectural trends. In addition, the positive correlation between avulsion frequency and the ratio of local to regional aggradation rate probably influenced alluvial architecture in the Rhine–Meuse delta. The Rhine–Meuse data set can be a great resource when developing more sophisticated models for alluvial architecture simulation, which eventually could lead to better characterizations of hydrocarbon reservoirs. To aid such usage of the Rhine–Meuse data set, constraints for relevant parameters are provided at the end of the paper.     

A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

Numerical modeling for analyzing thermal surface anomalies induced by underground coal fires

Coal seams burning underneath the surface are recognized all over the world and have drawn increasing public attention in the past years. Frequently, such fires are analyzed by detecting anomalies like increased exhaust gas concentrations and soil temperatures at the surface. A proper analysis presumes the understanding of involved processes, which determine the spatial distribution and dynamic behavior of the anomalies.In this paper, we explain the relevance of mechanical and energy transport processes with respect to the occurrence of temperature anomalies at the surface. Two approaches are presented, aiming to obtain insight into the underground coal fire situation: In-situ temperature mapping and numerical simulation. In 2000 to 2005, annual temperature mapping in the Wuda (Inner Mongolia, PR China) coal fire area showed that most thermal anomalies on the surface are closely related to fractures, where hot exhaust gases from the coal fire are released. Those fractures develop due to rock mechanical failure after volume reduction in the seams. The measured signals at the surface are therefore strongly affected by mechanical processes.More insight into causes and effects of involved energy transport processes is obtained by numerical simulation of the dynamic behavior of coal fires. Simulations show the inter-relation between release and transport of thermal energy in and around underground coal fires. Our simulation results show a time delay between the coal fire propagation and the observed appearance of the surface temperature signal. Additionally, the overall energy flux away from the burning coal seam into the surrounding bedrock is about 30-times higher than the flux through the surface. This is of particular importance for an estimation of the energy released based on surface temperature measurements. Finally, the simulation results also prove that a fire propagation rate estimated from the interpretation of surface anomalies can differ from the actual rate in the seam.     

Simultaneous transport of water and solutes under transient unsaturated flow conditions — A case study

The imbalance between incoming and outgoing salt causes salinization of soils and sub-soils that result in increasing the salinity of stream-flows and agriculture land. This salinization is a serious environmental hazard particularly in semi-arid and arid lands. In order to estimate the magnitude of the hazard posed by salinity, it is important to understand and identify the processes that control salt movement from the soil surface through the root zone to the ground water and stream flows. In the present study, Malaprabha sub-basin (up to dam site) has been selected which has two distinct climatic zones, sub-humid (upstream of Khanapur) and semi-arid region (downstream of Khanapur). In the upstream, both surface and ground waters are used for irrigation, whereas in the downstream mostly groundwater is used. Both soils and ground waters are more saline in downstream parts of the study area. In this study we characterized the soil salinity and groundwater quality in both areas. An attempt is also made to model the distribution of potassium concentration in the soil profile in response to varying irrigation conditions using the SWIM (Soil-Water Infiltration and Movement) model. Fair agreement was obtained between predicted and measured results indicating the applicability of the model.