Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions. 相似文献
In the northern limb of the 2.06-Ga Bushveld Complex, the Platreef is a platinum group elements (PGE)-, Cu-, and Ni-mineralized
zone of pyroxenite that developed at the intrusion margin. From north to south, the footwall rocks of the Platreef change
from Archaean granite to dolomite, hornfels, and quartzite. Where the footwall is granite, the Sr-isotope system is more strongly
perturbed than where the footwall is Sr-poor dolomite, in which samples show an approximate isochron relationship. The Nd-isotope
system for samples of pyroxenite and hanging wall norite shows an approximate isochron relationship with an implied age of
2.17 ± 0.2 Ga and initial Nd-isotope ratio of 0.5095. Assuming an age of 2.06 Ga, the ɛNd values range from −6.2 to −9.6 (ave.
−7.8, n = 17) and on average are slightly more negative than the Main Zone of the Bushveld. These data are consistent with local
contamination of an already contaminated magma of Main Zone composition. The similarity in isotope composition between the
Platreef pyroxenites and the hanging wall norites suggests a common origin. Where the country rock is dolomite, the Platreef
has generally higher plagioclase and pyroxene δ18O values, and this indicates assimilation of the immediate footwall. Throughout the Platreef, there is considerable petrographic
evidence for sub-solidus interaction with fluids, and the Δplagioclase–pyroxene values range from −2 to +6, which indicates interaction at both high and low temperatures. Whole-rock and mineral δD values suggest that the Platreef interacted with both magmatic and meteoric water, and the lack of disturbance to the Sr-isotope
system suggests that fluid–rock interaction took place soon after emplacement. Where the footwall is granite, less negative
δD values suggest a greater involvement of meteoric water. Consistently higher values of Δplagioclase–pyroxene in the Platreef pyroxenites and hanging wall norites in contact with dolomite suggest prolonged interaction with CO2-rich fluid derived from decarbonation of the footwall rocks. The overprint of post crystallization fluid–rock interaction
is the probable cause of the previously documented lack of correlation between PGE and sulfide content on the small scale.
The Platreef in contact with dolomite is the focus of the highest PGE grades, and this suggests that dolomite contamination
played a role in PGE concentration and deposition, but the exact link remains obscure. It is a possibility that the CO2 produced by decarbonation of assimilated dolomite enhanced the process of PGE scavenging by sulfide precipitation. 相似文献
The Asian monsoon is an important component of the global climate system. Seasonal variations in wind, rainfall, and temperature associated with the Asian monsoon systems affect a vast expanse of tropical and subtropical Asia. Speleothem-derived summer monsoon variation in East Asia was previously found to be closely associated with millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region between 75 and 10 ka. New evidence recovered from East Asia, however, suggests that the teleconnection between summer monsoon in East Asia and temperature change in the North Atlantic region may have significantly reduced during 120 to ~ 110 ka, a period directly after the full last interglaciation and corresponding roughly to marine oxygen isotope stage 5d. This reduction may be due to the low ice volume in the North Hemisphere at that time, which makes the millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region less effective in influencing the Asian summer monsoon. This is important for investigating the mechanisms controlling the Asian summer monsoon and the paleoclimatic teleconnection between East Asia and the North Atlantic region, and for predicting monsoon-associated precipitation in East Asia under a global-warming trend. 相似文献
A temporal seismic network recorded local seismicity along a 130 km long segment of the transpressional dextral strike-slip Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone (LOFZ) in southern Chile. Seventy five shallow crustal events with magnitudes up to Mw 3.8 and depths shallower than 25 km were observed in an 11-month period mainly occurring in different clusters. Those clusters are spatially related to the LOFZ, to the volcanoes Chaitén, Michinmahuida and Corcovado, and to active faulting on secondary faults. Further activity along the LOFZ is indicated by individual events located in direct vicinity of the surface expression of the LOFZ. Focal mechanisms were calculated using deviatoric moment tensor inversion of body wave amplitude spectra which mostly yield strike-slip mechanisms indicating a NE–SW direction of the P-axis for the LOFZ at this latitude. The seismic activity reveals the present-day activity of the fault zone. The recent Mw 6.2 event near Puerto Aysén, Southern Chile at 45.4°S on April 21, 2007 shows that the LOFZ is also capable of producing large magnitude earthquakes and therefore imposing significant seismic hazard to this region. 相似文献
We have revised the regional crustal structure, oceanic age distribution, and conjugate margin segmentation in and around the Lena Trough, the oceanic part of the Fram Strait between the Norwegian–Greenland Sea and the Eurasia Basin (Arctic Ocean). The Lena Trough started to open after Eurasia–Greenland relative plate motions changed from right-lateral shear to oblique divergence at Chron 13 times (33.3 Ma; earliest Oligocene). A new Bouguer gravity map, supported by existing seismic data and aeromagnetic profiles, has been applied to interpret the continent–ocean transition and the influence of Eocene shear structures on the timing of breakup and initial seafloor spreading. Assuming that the onset of deep-water exchange depended on the formation of a narrow, oceanic corridor, the gateway formed during early Miocene times (20–15 Ma). However, if the initial Lena Trough was blocked by terrigenous sediments or was insufficiently subsided to allow for deep-water circulation, the gateway probably formed with the first well developed magnetic seafloor spreading anomaly around Chron 5 times (9.8 Ma; Late Miocene). Paleoceanographic changes at ODP Site 909 (northern Hovgård Ridge) are consistent with both hypotheses of gateway formation. We cannot rule out that a minor gateway formed across stretched continental crust prior to the onset of seafloor spreading in the Lena Trough. The gravity, seismic and magnetic observations question the prevailing hypotheses on the Yermak Plateau and the Morris Jesup Rise as Eocene oceanic plateaus and the Hovgård Ridge as a microcontinent. 相似文献
We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献