The Ocean Loading Effect in the GPS Analysis: A Case Study in the Antarctic Peninsula Region

The accuracy of GPS data analysis for the vertical component has reached a level where the vertical crustal deformation due to the ocean tidal loading should be taken into consideration. Ocean loading affects in particular the results of the GPS analysis for those observation sets covering less than 24 hours. Especially in these cases, a correction for this phenomenon should be performed during the data analysis. On the other hand, it is possible to estimate the ocean loading effect from GPS data sets. In this way it is possible to validate models for the loading deformation derived from global ocean tide models.     

Probabilistic multi-model ensemble prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using general circulation models: A non-parametric approach

Probabilistic prediction has the ability to convey the intrinsic uncertainty of forecast that helps the decision makers to manage the climate risk more efficiently than deterministic forecasts. In recent times, probabilistic predictions obtained from the products from General Circulation Models (GCMs) have gained considerable attention. The probabilistic forecast can be generated in parametric (assuming Gaussian distribution) as well as non-parametric (counting method) ways. The present study deals with the non-parametric approach that requires no assumption about the form of the forecast distribution for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) based on the hindcast run of seven general circulation models from 1982 to 2008. Probabilistic prediction from each of the GCM products has been generated by non-parametric methods for tercile categories (viz. below normal (BN), near-normal (NN), and above normal (AN)) and evaluation of their skill is assessed against observed data. Five different types of PMME schemes have been used for combining probabilities from each GCM to improve the forecast skill as compared to the individual GCMs. These schemes are different in nature of assigning the weights for combining probabilities. After a rigorous analysis through Rank Probability Skill Score (RPSS) and relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the superiority of PMME has been established over climatological probability. It is also found that, the performances of PMME1 and PMME3 are better than all the other methods whereas PMME3 has showed more improvement over PMME1.     

NEX-GDDP降尺度数据对中国极端降水指数模拟能力的评估

利用1986—2005年中国地面气象台站观测的格点化逐日降水数据(CN05.1)评估了NASA高分辨率降尺度逐日数据集NEX-GDDP中21个全球气候模式在0.25?(约25 km×25 km)分辨率下对中国极端降水的模拟能力.选取年最大日降水量(RX1D)、年最大5 d降水量(RX5D)、湿日总降水量(PRCPTOT...     

土地利用变化的解释

用途转移和集约度变化构成土地利用变化的两种基本类型。土地特性自身的变化、土地使用者个体经济行为分析及社会群体土地管理行为分析 ,构成土地利用变化解释的理论框架。从土地特性考察 ,多宜性和限制性是土地利用发生变化的基本条件。人类对土地利用的结果 ,总是趋向于使土地的多宜性降低和功能类型减少。竞租曲线、转移边际点以及打破土地利用空间均衡的条件分析 ,是土地利用变化经济分析的理论基础 ;“土地利用 -环境效应 -体制响应”反馈环的作用机制 ,构成社会群体土地管理行为分析的理论框架。土地利用变化的机理模型 ,目前主要以新古典经济学和地租理论为基础。多视角的探索可能是土地利用变化机理综合分析的有效途径。     

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article, a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics, (2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population. By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a large-scale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands. It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.

卫星海洋水色遥感的辐射模式研究

海洋水体向上的辐射由水中多种成分的浓度所决定，同时辐射的强度十分微弱并随着时间和空间在变化。因此，海洋水色遥感需要从水体和大气辐射传递机理出发，研究到达卫星遥感器的辐射模式，以达到模拟仿真卫星水色遥感图像和卫星图像质量预测的目的。本研究通过叶绿素、悬浮泥沙和黄色物质等海洋水色的主要因子，分别从可见光波段和荧光波段对辐射的贡献出发，发展了海洋水体离水辐射率模式。在卫星水色遥感机理的基础上，同时运用Iqbal，Gordon和Sturm等的大气程辐射模式和太阳耀光模式，使卫星海洋水色遥感的辐射模式系统化，模拟仿真了我国1990年9月3日发射的FYIB卫星两个海洋水色通道的全轨道辐射图像，同时利用从德国柏林大学气象中心接收到的1990年9月23－25日卫星图像进行验证。结果认为，本文所发展的模式可应用于卫星图像质量的预测和水色信息的提取。     

On the frequency distribution of land slope

Slope frequency distributions are computed from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of 18 areas from five different geographic and physiographic regions. Over 160,000 slope estimates are used in the definition of the slope frequency distribution for each area. Analysis of several transformations of the slope data indicates that no single transformation is capable of normalizing all slope distributions. This is, in part, due to the arbitrary placement of the boundaries of the map sheets used in the data collection. The square root of sine, however, provides better results than sine, log-tangent, or several other transformations. The degree of (positive) skewness of gradients in degrees correlates with the proportion of slopes below 2° or 5° (r_s = + 0·93), as does the kurtosis (r_s = + 0·91).     

Progress and Prospects of Research on Climatic Suitability at Home and Abroad

The research progress of climate suitability at home and abroad was briefly reviewed in this paper, which was divided into three stages: The initial stage of research, the initial development and application stage, and the application research warming stage. The main achievements and progress of climate suitability in China were also introduced from three aspects as follows: Improvement of climate suitability model, extension of climate suitability applications and development of climate suitability model. Based on the impact of climate change on agriculture and the weak links in climate suitability research, the focus and hotspot of future climate suitability research were proposed, which will be five important directions:The climate suitability model proceed from crop growth model, the climate suitability research proceed from characteristic agriculture, the climate suitability research proceed from climate change, the climate suitability model based on different theories and the climate suitability evaluation index research.     

气候适宜度国内外研究进展及展望

简要概述了国外在气候适宜度方面的研究现状,回顾了我国在气候适宜度方面的研究历程,将气候适宜度研究划分为3个阶段:研究的起步阶段、初步发展应用阶段及应用研究升温阶段。从气候适宜度模型的改进、气候适宜度应用的延伸及气候适宜度模型的发展3个方面介绍了我国在气候适宜度方面的主要成果和进展;从气候变化对农业的影响角度及气候适宜度研究存在的薄弱环节等方面,提出立足作物生长模型的气候适宜度模型研究、立足特色农业的气候适宜度研究、立足气候变化的气候适宜度研究、立足不同理论的气候适宜度模型研究和气候适宜度评价指标研究等方面将是未来气候适宜度研究的重点和热点。