Forecasting prices of single family homes using GIS-defined neighborhoods

We estimate spatiotemporal models of average neighborhood single family home prices to use in predicting individual property prices. Average home-price variations are explained in terms of changes in average neighborhood house attributes, spatial attributes, and temporal economic variables. Models adopting three different definitions of neighborhoods are estimated with quarterly cross-sectional data over the period 2000–2004 from four cities in Southern California. Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation problems are detected and adjusted for via a sequential routine. Results of these models suggest that forecasts obtained using city neighborhood average price equations may have advantage over forecasts obtained using city aggregated price equations.      

Monitoring and comparison to predictive models of the Perdido Key beach nourishment project, Florida, USA

This paper summarizes the results of over 8 years of data describing the performance of a large beach nourishment project on Perdido Key, immediately adjacent to Pensacola Pass in Escambia County, FL, USA. As a result of a major excavation of the entrance channel to Pensacola Bay, over 7 million m³ of beach-quality sand were placed along the easternmost 7.5 km of Perdido Key, adjoining the entrance channel at Pensacola Pass. The project included the placement of 4.1 million m³ of sand directly upon the shoreline in 1989–1990, followed by the placement of an additional 3 million m³ as an underwater berm just offshore of the beach nourishment project in water depths of roughly 6 m. Monitoring of the performance of the beach nourishment project and the offshore berm has been conducted since 1989, beginning with a pre-construction survey of the project area. Monitoring surveys have been conducted on an annual or biennial basis since that time, with the most recent survey occurring in July/August, 1998. Over 8 years of monitoring data indicate that the beach nourishment project has retained approximately 56% of the original volume placed within the 7.5-km project length. In addition, according to the latest monitoring survey, the dry beach width of the project, initially constructed as 135 m on average, is still 53 m wider than pre-project conditions. Approximately 41% of the originally placed dry planform area remains as of July 1998. The most recent monitoring surveys in 1995, 1997, and 1998 encompass the effects of two major storm systems, Hurricanes Erin (August 1995) and Opal (October 1995). Monitoring of the offshore berm area indicates only a slight landward migration of the berm, accompanied by a minor decrease in volume, over the entire monitoring period. The performance of both the beach nourishment project and the offshore berm appear to be significantly related to the two storm events, particularly Hurricane Opal, and the proximity of the project to the tidal entrance at Pensacola Pass. Comparison of the documented performance of the beach nourishment project to simple existing analytical models of beach-fill evolution have yielded encouraging results in terms of preliminary design aids for future beach nourishment projects in the vicinity of deep tidal entrances.     

土壤盐渍化量化的遥感与GIS实验

为对土壤盐渍化程度做更为科学的定量分析，该文重点研究了地下水埋深，地下水矿化度和地貌因子对土壤盐渍化影响以及这种影响的定量化，研究区为吉林省长岭县实验区。利用地理信息系统作为支持工具，结合遥感数据和专家经验，建立数学模型，进行综合分析，获得了较好的结果，这种方法为分析土壤盐渍化问题的有效途径之一。     

Climate Comparisons and Change Projections for the Northwest Atlantic from Six CMIP5 Models

Abstract

Key physical variables for the Northwest Atlantic (NWA) are examined in the “historical” and two future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations of six Earth System Models (ESMs) available through Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The variables are air temperature, sea-ice concentration, surface and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity, and ocean mixed-layer depth. Comparison of the historical simulations with observations indicates that the models provide a good qualitative and approximate quantitative representation of many of the large-scale climatological features in the NWA (e.g., annual cycles and spatial patterns). However, the models represent the detailed structure of some important NWA ocean and ice features poorly, such that caution is needed in the use of their projected future changes. Monthly “climate change” fields between the bidecades 1986–2005 and 2046–2065 are described, using ensemble statistics of the changes across the six ESMs. The results point to warmer air temperatures everywhere, warmer surface ocean temperatures in most areas, reduced sea-ice extent and, in most areas, reduced surface salinities and mixed-layer depths. However, the magnitudes of the inter-model differences in the projected changes are comparable to those of the ensemble-mean changes in many cases, such that robust quantitative projections are generally not possible for the NWA.     

Improving the performance of precipitation outputs from Global Climate Models to predict monthly and seasonal rainfall over the Indian subcontinent

Skilful prediction of the monthly and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over India at a smaller spatial scale is a major challenge for the scientific community. The present study is aimed at achieving this objective by hybridising two mathematical techniques, namely synthetic superensemble (SSE) and supervised principal component regression (SPCR) on six state-of-the art Global Climate Models (GCMs). The performance of the mathematical model is evaluated using correlation analysis, the root mean square error, and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index. Results feature reasonable improvement over central India, which is a zone of maximum rainfall activity in the summer monsoon season. The study also highlights improvement in the monthly prediction of rainfall over raw GCMs (15–20% improvement) with exceptional improvement in July. The developed model is also examined for anomalous years of monsoon and it is found that the model is able to capture the signs of anomalies over different gridpoints of the Indian domain.     

面向对象高分遥感影像典型自然地物半自动提取

针对目前高空间分辨率遥感影像（简称高分遥感影像）地物全自动提取无法完全实现的现实,本文结合自然地物的光谱和纹理特征,提出一种面向对象的高分遥感影像典型自然地物半自动提取方法。首先构建最小生成树（Minimum Spanning Tree, MST）进行影像初始分割,根据影像灰度平均归一化值和标准差统计对象的光谱、纹理等特征。用户通过“种子点”交互选取提供前景样本,并基于区域邻接图（Region Adjacency Graph, RAG）寻找合并代价最小的区域扩充前景样本。在自动构建的环形缓冲区内选择背景样本,利用特征空间高斯滤波实现全连接条件随机场中均值场更新。依据全连接条件随机场描述全局信息,结合不同地物的提取准则最终得到自然地物的提取结果。以航空和高分二号(GF-2)遥感影像为实验数据,分别对林地、草地、耕地、裸地和水体等典型自然地物进行提取。结果显示,基于本文方法的航空影像典型自然地物提取总精度和Kappa值为0.959和0.948,相较于SVM方法分别提升了20.757%和0.268。高分二号(GF-2)遥感影像的提取总精度和Kappa值为0.959和0.941,相比SVM方法分别提高了1.698%和0.133。证明所给方法能够通过较少的用户交互,实现高分遥感影像典型自然地物高精度智能提取。     

CMIP5模式对ENSO现象的模拟能力评估

针对参与耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的17个海-气耦合模式对20世纪气候的模拟结果,从热带太平洋海表温度和大气海平面气压变化的综合分析角度较详细评估了模式对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)现象的模拟能力。结果表明,这些模式基本上能模拟出ENSO现象的一些主要特征,包括热带太平洋海温的空间分布及其时空演变特征、与海平面气压变化的关联、ENSO周期变化及锁相特征等,但不同模式的模拟结果仍然差异较大。(1)从模拟的热带太平洋年平均海温的偏差来看,多模式集合平均值与观测的均方根误差小于1.0℃,但单个模式的误差相对要大一些。误差较小的为1.2—1.3℃,多数模式在1.6℃以下,但也有个别模式的误差超过2.0℃。(2)从经验正交函数分解结果来看,热带太平洋实测月平均海表温度距平和海平面气压距平的年际尺度变化第1模态主要表现为ENSO变化特征,第2模态反映的是海温的长期变化趋势。只有少数几个CMIP5模式能够再现这种特征,多数模式所模拟的海温距平/海平面气压距平时空变化的第1、第2特征向量分布顺序与观测分析正好相反,ENSO变成了第2模态,趋势成了最主要的模态。尽管如此,所有模式都能模拟出南方涛动变化与热带太平洋海温距平时空变化的密切关联,无论是作为第1还是第2特征模态,所有模式模拟的南方涛动与热带太平洋海温距平时空变化都有密切相关。(3)谱分析结果表明,ENSO现象具有2—7年的周期,其中,4年的周期最明显。大多数模式模拟的ENSO周期在此范围内,但有些模式的主要周期偏短,为2年左右。个别模式的ENSO主要周期为11年,已超出2—7年的范围。(4)多数模式模拟的厄尔尼诺及拉尼娜的峰值出现在冬季(11—2月),与观测基本吻合。另有少数模式模拟的峰值出现在9—10月,比观测略提前。只有个别模式模拟的峰值出现在夏季,与观测相差太大。     

作为随机振动的海冰变化模型

本文从B.Saltzman的海温—海冰模式出发,得到了一个描述海冰范围变化的随机气候模型,接着对模型的性质进行了一些分析和讨论,并把从模型得到的模拟谱与计算的南极海冰扩展范围的观测谱做了比较。     

Modelling risk and risking models: The diffusive boundary between science and policy in volcanic risk management

This article examines the science–policy interface in volcanic risk assessment. It analyses empirical data from research on Montserrat, where new volcanic risk assessment methodologies were pioneered. We discuss the ways in which these methods contributed towards the ordering of scientific advice in its geographical context, and we provide examples of the complex and overlapping topologies that are assembled in a volcanic eruption. In this case, the science–policy interface can be conceptualised as diffusive: both science and policy contain multiple overlapping networks of actors, objects and ideas that interact with one another through flows of responsibilities, attribution, identity and interpretation. Volcanic risk management involves negotiation of conceptual, relational and physical boundaries, and as a result requires the use of qualitative and quantitative methods across human and physical geography.     

A history of the global understanding of the Earth

The author contributes to the development of a history of the global understanding of the Earth. He summarizes the main steps in the knowledge of the Earth's interior from antiquity to the present time and draws some lessons from this history.