1991—2015年三江源河曲高寒草甸干湿状况及牧草产量变化的气候归因研究

以三江源东部河曲高寒草甸为研究对象,通过分析1991—2015年气温、降水、潜在蒸散、湿润指数和牧草产量变化特征,探讨了地区干湿状况对牧草产量的影响。研究表明：1991—2015年河曲高寒草甸潜在蒸散以3.5 mm·a^-1的速率增加（P<0.01）,在年降水量按2.3 mm·a^-1呈非显著性（P>0.05）增加的趋势下,地区干湿状况基本保持平稳（多年均值为0.52）,隶属于半湿润气候区。25年来牧草干重产量平均为303.7 g·m^-2,并以3.0 g·m^-2·a^-1的速率下降。分析牧草产量与影响干湿状况的气候因素之间的相关性发现,气温对牧草产量影响不明显（P>0.05）,降水量表现为正相关关系（P>0.10）,说明该区域降水是牧草产量提高与否的主导因素;牧草产量与潜在蒸散表现为负相关关系（P>0.10）,与湿润指数表现为正相关关系（P>0.10）;在生长季时期,牧草产量与降水量、潜在蒸散和湿润指数的相关性关系达到了显著水平（P<0.10）,说明牧草产量在生长季对地区环境条件湿润与否较为敏感。     

成层软土地基预固结处理后桩基水平承载力估算方法

目前通过对软土地基预加固处理来提高桩基水平承载力已被工程界认可,但如何在工程前期设计过程中估算软土地基预处理后桩基水平承载力提高值仍是技术难点。基于此,参考Bowles[1]的地基土水平抗力计算式,同时考虑成层软土地基预排水固结处理影响,通过数学推导,推求出根据原状软土室内土工试验抗剪强度指标及预加固处理时间,估算软土地基预处理后桩基水平承载力提高值的实用计算方法。考虑桩侧土弹塑性屈服影响,推导出成层软土中水平受荷桩弹塑性解析解及塑性区深度的计算式,给出了桩顶水平位移、桩身最大弯矩的无量纲计算式及相关计算源代码。依托于浙江省某水闸桩基工程案例,根据提出的计算方法对桩基水平承载力、桩顶水平位移及桩身最大弯矩等性状进行预估计算,并与地基预处理前、后现场试桩检测值进行验证对比,认为桩基水平承载力、桩顶水平位移及桩身最大弯矩等预估计算成果与工程现场试桩的检测值较接近,对类似工程设计具有较好的参考价值。     

Effects of commercial timber harvesting on streamflow regimes in the Plynlimon catchments,mid‐Wales

This paper presents the first large‐scale British study of the impacts of commercial forest cutting on stream‐flow regimes. The 70% forested headwaters of the River Severn are part of the intensively instrumented long‐term Plynlimon catchment study into the impact of land use on stream flow. The forest area, comprising predominantly Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis), was planted mainly in the 1930s and 1940s. Harvesting commenced in the mid‐1980s and over the study period about half the forest has been felled. Changes in annual water yield and extreme flows were studied in four nested catchments ranging in area from about 1 to 10 km² and compared with an adjacent benchmark grassland catchment. As expected from earlier process studies the cutting of the forest increased total annual flows. Less expected was the clear evidence that the felling augmented low flows. This informs a long‐standing debate whether upland forestry increases or reduces baseflows. A particularly notable result was the lack of impact of the harvesting on storm peak flows. This may result from the application of forest management guidelines designed to reduce soil damage and erosion during the harvesting, and indicates that the forest itself has a limited impact on flooding. These findings are timely because British forest expansion peaked in the 30 years following the Second World War, and large areas of these woodlands are now approaching economic maturity and will be harvested in the next two decades. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Introducing a transferable fishing day management regime for Pacific Island countries

On 1 December 2007, eight ‘Small Island Developing States’ in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean implemented a management regime restricting the total number of days fished by tuna purse seine vessels within their waters, commonly referred to as the Vessel Day Scheme (VDS). The VDS is seen as one component of management arrangements to reduce fishing mortality on bigeye and yellowfin tuna, constrain fishing effort, and increase the rate of return from access fees by Distant Water Fishing Nations.     

Seismic stability analysis of piled embankments: A multiphase approach

The seismic stability analysis of an embankment lying over a soft foundation soil reinforced by a group of vertical piles is performed within the framework of the upper bound kinematic approach of yield design. The analysis is based on a previously developed ‘multiphase’ model of the reinforced ground, which explicitly accounts for the shear and bending resistances of the piles. Making use of appropriate failure mechanisms involving shear zones across which the reinforcements are continuously deforming, along with ‘plastic hinge’ surfaces, upper bound estimates to the critical seismic coefficient of the structure are derived. The results, which are confirmed by the simulations obtained from a finite element elastoplastic code, give clear evidence of the key role played by the bending strength capacities of the piles in ensuring the stability of the pile reinforced embankment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The application of uranium series disequilibrium concepts to sediment yield determination

The determination of uranium series disequilibria in fluvial environments is proposed as a method of calculating catchment mass balances. The technique is based on two main principles. Firstly, ²³⁴U is more mobile than ²³⁸U, especially during the early stages of weathering. Secondly, uranium is far more mobile than either thorium or protactinium. Consequently, teaching during weathering results in the loss of the uranium found in the fresh rock, leaving the two immobile daughters behind. The ratio of uranium carried by sediment to that dissolved, U_S/U_W can, therefore, be determined from river water and sediment isotopic activity ratios. Fluxes of uranium can then be calculated from average concentrations in the water and the associated sediment, from which a sediment yield can be inferred. The Witham catchment in Lincolnshire has been used to test the proposed method. A U_S/U_W ratio of between 5 and 7 is determined and a sediment yield of 2.51 ± 2.12 tonnes yr^?1 km^?2 is proposed. Although some problems concerning environmental chemistry have arisen, the validity of the approach is confirmed by the close correspondence between the results obtained and those inferred by earlier workers using more conventional methods.     

Continental size,eustasy and sediment yield

Sediment yield from modern continental blocks is a function of the area (dissolved load) and hypsometry (mechanical load) of the blocks. Hypsographic curves for modern continental blocks show that the change in the percentage area flooded for any change in eustatic sea level depends on the size of the block and the absolute sea level. This allows predictions of changes in sediment yield around different sized blocks for any given eustatic change. The range in size of continental blocks is such that, for any given sea level change, the blocks will show different percentage changes in yield. Data from modern continental blocks are compared with theoretical results. Assuming that the rules governing modern hypsometries applied in the past, and a constant volume of continental crust, it is possible to estimate the hypsographic curves of former continental blocks. The implications of suggested past continental configurations and sea levels for sediment yield are discussed.     

潜水延迟给水理论模型探讨

基于对失饱和带毛管与潜水流间交互作用的分析，提出了以“失水带迟后反应”模式计算延迟给水下的定降深流动①的成因方法。它能自然地解释水位、水头的Ｗａｌｔｏｎ三阶段演变规律，且拟合实测资料，具较强实用性。现行的纽曼代表性模型未能考虑延迟给水作用，因而其水位计算结果与实测线型相反．博尔顿法是经验性的，未予揭示该现象成因。本法基本上解决了上述问题。文后图示了各参变量对水头时空分布的影响。验算表明，将本法用于潜水出流试验推求含水层参数，可获更佳结果。     

Prediction of tension crack location and riverbank erosion hazards along destabilized channels

Riverbank erosion, associated sedimentation and land loss hazards are a land management problem of global significance and many attempts to predict the onset of riverbank instability have been made. Recently, Osman and Thorne (1988) have presented a Culmann-type analysis of the stability of steep, cohesive riverbanks; this has the potential to be a considerable improvement over previous bank stability theories, which do not account for bank geometry changes due to toe scour and lateral erosion. However, in this paper it is shown that the existing Osman-Thorne model does not properly incorporate the influence of tension cracking on bank stability since the location of the tension crack on the floodplain is indirectly determined via calculation or arbitrary specification of the tension crack depth. Furthermore, accurate determination of tension crack location is essential to the calculation of the geometry of riverbank failure blocks and hence prediction of land loss and bank sediment yield associated with riverbank instability and channel widening. In this paper, a rational, physically based method to predict the location of tension cracks on the floodplain behind the eroding bank face is presented and tested. A case study is used to illustrate the computational procedure required to apply the model. Improved estimates of failure block geometry using the new method may potentially be applied to improve predictions of bank retreat and floodplain land loss along river channels destabilized as a result of environmental change.     

Within-storm variations in runoff and sediment export from a rapidly eroding coal-refuse deposit

Measurements of rainfall, runoff and sediment export from a barren deposit of coal mine refuse in south-western Indiana were collected during three storms in the summer and autumn of 1990. Interfluve sheetwash, sediment mass flux, sediment concentration and, to a lesser extent, trunk gully discharge all responded quickly to changes in rainfall intensity. Grain-size distributions varied considerably during storms, containing exclusively fine-grained sediment at low sediment discharges but very large quantities of coarse (> 2mm) sediment at peak sediment discharges. Although data from a fairly long, multipulsed storm indicate that sediment production is limited by supply, the imbricated layer of flat chips that exists at the surface of the deposit is apparently mobilized during most high-intensity pulses of rainfall, thereby producing large volumes of coarse sediment during summer thunderstorms.