Pre- and post-drill comparison of the Mount Elbert gas hydrate prospect, Alaska North Slope

In 2006, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) completed a detailed analysis and interpretation of available 2-D and 3-D seismic data, along with seismic modeling and correlation with specially processed downhole well log data for identifying potential gas hydrate accumulations on the North Slope of Alaska. A methodology was developed for identifying sub-permafrost gas hydrate prospects within the gas hydrate stability zone in the Milne Point area. The study revealed a total of 14 gas hydrate prospects in this area.In order to validate the gas hydrate prospecting protocol of the USGS and to acquire critical reservoir data needed to develop a longer-term production testing program, a stratigraphic test well was drilled at the Mount Elbert prospect in the Milne Point area in early 2007. The drilling confirmed the presence of two prominent gas-hydrate-bearing units in the Mount Elbert prospect, and high quality well logs and core data were acquired. The post-drill results indicate pre-drill predictions of the reservoir thickness and the gas-hydrate saturations based on seismic and existing well data were 90% accurate for the upper unit (hydrate unit D) and 70% accurate for the lower unit (hydrate unit C), confirming the validity of the USGS approach to gas hydrate prospecting. The Mount Elbert prospect is the first gas hydrate accumulation on the North Slope of Alaska identified primarily on the basis of seismic attribute analysis and specially processed downhole log data. Post-drill well log data enabled a better constraint of the elastic model and the development of an improved approach to the gas hydrate prospecting using seismic attributes.     

Deep-sea nematode assemblage has not recovered 26 years after experimental mining of polymetallic nodules (Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone, Tropical Eastern Pacific)

We investigated nematode assemblages inhabiting the 26-year-old track created by experimental deep-sea mining of polymetallic nodules, and two adjacent, undisturbed sites, one with nodules and one without nodules. The aim was to compare density, assemblage structure, and diversity indices in order to assess the process of recovery of the nematode assemblage inhabiting the disturbed site. This experimental dredging was conducted in 1978 by the Ocean Minerals Company (USA) in the area of a French mining claim in the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone (Tropical Eastern Pacific) at a depth of about 5000 m. The nematode assemblage had not returned its initial state 26 years after the experimental dredging: the total nematode density and biomass within the dredging track were significantly lower than outside the track; the biodiversity indices showed significantly lower nematode diversity within the track; and the structure of the nematode assemblage within the track differed significantly from those in the two undisturbed sites outside the track. However, there were no significant differences in the mean body volumes of adult nematodes and adult-juvenile ratios between the track and reference sites. Parameters such as the rate of sediment restoration (which depends on local hydrological conditions) and the degree and character of the disturbance appeared to be of considerable importance for the recovery rate of the deep-sea nematode assemblages and their ability to recolonize disturbed areas. The rates of recolonization and recovery may vary widely in different deep-sea regions.     

基于神经网络方法获得最优化月球内部结构模型

由于观测手段有限,目前对月球内部结构的认识还存在很大的不确定性,至今仍没有一个被广泛认可的内部结构模型,且现有对月球内部结构模型的研究几乎很少关注观测值对观测精度的影响.本研究采用混合密度神经网络方法得到了月球内部结构模型的后验概率密度分布,获得了平均月球内部结构模型(Mean模型)、最大后验概率对应的月球内部结构模型...     

视密度反演在东海及邻区重力异常解释中的应用

简要介绍了基于位场分离的视密度反演法的原理,并利用该技术对东海的重力异常进行处理并进行了区域地质解释应用.视密度反演的方法在对研究区内的区域性大断裂如郯庐断裂、江绍断裂以及东引—海礁隐伏断裂有很好的分辨能力.不同深度的视密度切片信息能够帮助我们了解这些大断裂的发育深度和规模.在沟弧盆等地形以及构造复杂地区利用视密度反演法研究深部地质构造,可以揭示不同深度上补偿质量分布情况,从而推测莫霍面的起伏情况.     

Multi-scale support vector algorithms for hot spot detection and modelling

The algorithmic approach to data modelling has developed rapidly these last years, in particular methods based on data mining and machine learning have been used in a growing number of applications. These methods follow a data-driven methodology, aiming at providing the best possible generalization and predictive abilities instead of concentrating on the properties of the data model. One of the most successful groups of such methods is known as Support Vector algorithms. Following the fruitful developments in applying Support Vector algorithms to spatial data, this paper introduces a new extension of the traditional support vector regression (SVR) algorithm. This extension allows for the simultaneous modelling of environmental data at several spatial scales. The joint influence of environmental processes presenting different patterns at different scales is here learned automatically from data, providing the optimum mixture of short and large-scale models. The method is adaptive to the spatial scale of the data. With this advantage, it can provide efficient means to model local anomalies that may typically arise in situations at an early phase of an environmental emergency. However, the proposed approach still requires some prior knowledge on the possible existence of such short-scale patterns. This is a possible limitation of the method for its implementation in early warning systems. The purpose of this paper is to present the multi-scale SVR model and to illustrate its use with an application to the mapping of Cs¹³⁷ activity given the measurements taken in the region of Briansk following the Chernobyl accident.     

短期气候预测的评估问题

该文系统地介绍了国内外评估月、季尺度短期气候预测结果的方法 ,比较了相关系数(R)、预报技巧分 (S)和准确率 (P)的特点 ,并对当前国内外气候预测业务水平进行了分析 ,着重对大气环流、气温、降水及 ENSO的预测水平进行了评估 ,指出国内外月、季尺度的降水预报的水平目前在 55%～ 60 %左右 ,对 ENSO的发生、结束和强度的预报水平有限 .文中探讨了短期气候预测的可预报性问题 ,提出月、季尺度气候预测的可预报性的理论上限可能为 6～ 1 2月 ,准确率在 80 %～ 85%之间 .     

前兆台站及观测测项的密度改正方法

介绍了使用MYCIN不精确推理模型生成发震可信度分布图、 可信度密度等值线图以及进行前兆测项的密度改正方法。 通过对1989年大同6.1级和1998年张北6.2级地震的震前异常进行推理和比较, 经过密度改正的可信度密度等值线图可以克服某些地区由于前兆测项密度较高而造成对地点判断的偏差, 从而对未来发震地区的判断起到较好的效果。     

线性向量半参数模型与标量半参数模型最小二乘估计的比较

研究了最小二乘准则下线性向量半参数模型的核估计、近邻估计及样条估计3种估计方法,分析了向量半参数模型与标量半参数模型在这几种估计方法中的差异。     

时变重力场球面模型反演算法和模拟实验

时变重力场是研究地球内部介质物性变化的重要手段.本文提出了一种适用于地面流动重力测量获得的时变重力信号的场源反演方法,该方法采用球坐标系下的六面体单元来模拟场源介质,适合大尺度地震流动重力测量数据的等效源模型构建.通过引入重力时变信号的一阶光滑先验条件,压制了时变重力信号中的短周期高频分量,可用于提取与地震孕育相关的长...     

陕西大旱与太阳活动的关系

本文分析了公元５８０～１９７９年的陕西大早与大阳活动的关系，得到大旱主要发生在太阳黑子的高值段和下降段以及低值段。第２２大阳周峰年已经过去，粗略估计１９９６年是第２３太阳周的谷年。我们预测１９９５Ａｓｌ９９７年大旱１次，１９９７～２０００年基本上无大旱，２０００～２００５年大旱２～３次。