北京强降雨与道路积水统计分析及应用

利用2007—2011年汛期(6—8月)北京市人民政府防汛抗旱指挥部办公室每日发布的汛情通报、北京市20个气候站日降雨量和200多个自动气象站逐小时降雨量监测数据,对近5年北京强降雨及降雨强度与城区出现道路积水的关系进行统计分析,找出北京城区出现道路积水的降雨量特征、小时降雨强度和2 h降雨量道路积水临界指标。通过在2011年汛期(6—8月)10次道路积水中应用表明,该道路积水临界指标具有较好的参考价值,可为今后北京道路积水预报服务工作提供参考依据。     

Integrated Indicators-based Gradation of Cultivated Land Quality in Mountainous Region of Southwestern China

1 Introduction The gradation of cultivated land is to assess the suitability of cultivated land for agricultural production in terms of natural and economic prop-erties of land (Feng et al. 2004). It can be used to evaluate sustainability of land use and …     

渤海湾水生态环境现状和海岸带开发对其的影响研究

由于沿海地区经济迅速发展，越来越多的陆源污水排入渤海湾，渤海湾生态环境系统承受着巨大的压力。本文建立了渤海湾生态环境的多级指标体系，并根据2003年至2005年多次渤海湾监测资料对其现状进行了分析；然后进一步研究了由于围海造地、海水淡化等开发工程引起的近岸海域水动力条件和污染物输移的变化。结果表明，陆源污染物大量排放、沿海开发活动加剧是影响渤海湾水生态环境的主要原因。沿海围垦不仅导致潮通量减少，潮流作用减弱，而且影响近岸海域污染物的输移和分布。海水淡化高浓度盐水的排放也对近岸海域的水生态环境造成很大的影响。     

Comparison of two techniques for applying disjunctive kriging: The Gaussian anamorphosis model versus the direct statistical inference of the bivariate distributions

Indicator cokriging is an alternative to disjunctive kriging for estimation of spatial distributions. One way to determine which of these techniques is more accurate for estimation of spatial distributions is to apply each to a particular type of data. A procedure is developed for evaluation of disjunctive kriging and indicator cokriging for such an application. Application of this procedure to earthquake ground motion data found disjunctive kriging to be at least as accurate as indicator cokriging for estimation of spatial distributions of peak horizontal acceleration. Indicator cokriging was superior for all other types of earthquake ground motion data.     

An evaluation of the Wellington Regional Genuine Progress Index

There is widespread discontent with the gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of progress for society. Alternative measures have been proposed, including the genuine progress indicator (GPI). This paper examines the changing institutional arrangements and attitudinal context in the recently developed Wellington region (New Zealand) GPI. We found an alignment between the GPI framework and the Local Government Act. Despite this fit, we identified challenges, including the need to revitalise public participation through deliberative techniques. It remains too early to judge whether the GPI initiative will launch a viable alternative to the GDP for the Wellington region.     

Knowledge gathering and communication on biodiversity: Developing the Norwegian Nature Index

The authors reflect on knowledge-generating and communication processes involved in the recently developed Norwegian Nature Index, particularly the communication process among experts involved in providing the required biodiversity knowledge. Eliciting a comprehensive overview of biodiversity is a complex process involving choices of approaches and methods in order to reach a common understanding of uncertainties and values as a basis for quantification. Part of the complexity is the establishment of dialogue between experts from research institutions with different research traditions and approaches. The authors discuss how the index was developed through communication processes, challenging involved experts to provide not only biodiversity data for the current situation, but also forecasts of future trends, assessments of uncertainty, and evaluations of the urgency of biodiversity loss and possibility of implementing policy and management measures. The Nature Index framework has potential for informing the biodiversity policy debate by involving stakeholders beyond the science-policy community and enhancing deliberations about biodiversity policy in a wider context of sustainable development. As a policy tool, the Nature Index may develop through a process of practical application, which in turn may have an impact on the selection of narratives, definition of management targets, and technical concepts such as reference states.     

河流健康评价的主评指标筛选

河流健康是近年来探讨水资源问题的一个热点,其评价指标体系正成为河流管理的目标。为了筛选出一些基本的、易于量化的主要评价指标来揭示河流健康基本状况和变化趋势,通过对1972～2010年约150篇相关文献、45个河流健康评价指标体系902项指标的整理和归纳,应用统计、层次和相关性分析法,确定各指标的被采用率,并同时综合考虑指标的重要性、普遍性、可量化性和易获得性,筛选出揭示河流生境物理、水环境、生物和水资源利用4类特征的主要指标。结果表明,有以下8个指标可作为河流健康的主评指标:河岸植被覆盖率、河流连通性、湿地保留率、径流量变化率、水质达标率、鱼类生物完整性指数、水资源利用率和流域天然植被覆盖率。     

GPS网中基线边和观测时段的关系分析

GPS网布设过程中,如果测区面积较大、网形复杂,则经常需要计算各点的设站次数与各点相关的基线数目以便进行GPS网的图形设计和精度估算。而基线边数、观测时段数与接收机数量密切相关,本文通过分析得出了三者之间的关系的一般公式。