有序聚类分析法的改进及其在水文序列突变点识别中的应用

有序聚类分析法是水文学中识别突变点的有效方法,但该法只考虑了同类之间的离差较小原则,忽略了类与类之间的离差较大原则。基于此,提出了改进的有序聚类分析法,改进法同时考虑了同类之间的离差较小和类类间的离差较大原则。将改进的有序聚类分析法应用于年平均流量序列突变点识别中,并与传统有序聚类分析法进行对比分析,研究结果表明,改进的有序聚类分析法原理明确,识别突变点更加有效。     

非典型周期和气候突变的识别与判定

通过两种新方法分析了无锡站降水年际变化的突变性、周期性等特征,揭示了旱涝演化的自然规律。研究表明,1934、1978、2013年是我国近现代气候突变的临界点,这是旱涝演化的自然选择;无锡站年际降水的观测历史可分成四个特征不同的时段,每个时段节点对应的都是一次气候突变;气候突变会改变年际降水序列的一致性,分段法研究可以大幅度降低模拟难度、提高预测效率。发现并确认了3个气候突变点,实现了超长缺测中断期(13a)旱涝趋势的精确插补,完成了无锡站近百年降雨序列的周期性分析与旱涝趋势预测模拟,研究成果改变了近现代气候历史无法细分的现状。     

晚第四纪MIS6以来柴达木盆地成盐作用对冰期气候的响应

气候是控制柴达木盆地盐类沉积的主要因素之一,但是其作用机制尚待明确。作者以柴达木盆地察汗斯拉图盐湖的3个含盐剖面为研究对象,采用多接收电感耦合等离子质谱(MC-ICP-MS)铀系测年测定其沉积时代,并通过X射线粉晶衍射(XRD)分析测定其盐类矿物种类。铀系测年显示D18剖面石盐和芒硝层的沉积时代为13.1±2.0 ka BP～15.9±2.5 ka BP,其中芒硝沉积年代属于末次冰期MIS2晚期;MXK2剖面芒硝层的沉积时代分别为131.7±39.5 ka BP和158.3±10.8 ka BP,D12剖面芒硝层的沉积时代分别为166.6±20.2 ka BP和198.0±20.6 ka BP,可以对应于倒数第二次冰期MIS6。XRD分析确定了3个剖面的盐类矿物主要为芒硝、石盐和石膏。综合多个盐湖晚第四纪成盐数据,本文认为倒数第二次冰期MIS6和末次冰期MIS2是柴达木盆地晚第四纪重要的成盐期,冰期的冷干气候有利于石盐和芒硝等盐类沉积。柴达木盆地"冰期成盐"的根本原因,是由于冰期环境下盆地周边山体冰川规模的扩张以及干冷的冰期气候,共同造成了盐湖补给水量的减少。此外,晚第四纪MIS6和MIS2的冰期降温也是导致盆地中冷相盐类沉积的直接原因。     

A natural gas hydrate-oil-gas system in the Qilian Mountain permafrost area,northeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Natural gas hydrate, oil and gas were all found together in the Qilian Mountain permafrost area, northeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. They are closely associated with each other in space, but whether they are in any genetic relations are unknown yet. In this paper, a hydrocarbon gas-generation series, gas-fluid migration series and hydrocarbon gas-accumulation series are analyzed to probe the spatial, temporal and genetic relationships among natural natural gas hydrate, oil and gas. The subsequent results show that natural gas hydrate, oil and gas actually form a natural gas hydrate-oil-gas system. Based on the Middle Jurassic and the Upper Triassic hydrocarbon gas-generation series, it is divided into four major sub-systems in the study area: (1) A conventional Upper Triassic gas-bearing sub-system with peak hydrocarbon gas-generation in the late Middle Jurassic; (2) a conventional Middle Jurassic oil-bearing sub-system with low to mature hydrocarbon gas-generation in the late Middle Jurassic; (3) a natural gas hydrate sub-system with main gas source from the Upper Triassic gas-bearing sub-system and minor gas source from the Middle Jurassic oil-bearing sub-system as well as little gas source from the Middle Jurassic coal-bed gas and the microbial gas; (4) a shallower gas sub-system with microbial alteration of the main gas source from the Upper Triassic gas-bearing sub-system. This natural gas hydrate-oil-gas system and its sub-systems are not only theoretical but also practical, and thus they will play an important role in the further exploration of natural gas hydrate, oil and gas, even other energy resources in the study area.     

Assessing model of highway slope stability based on optimized SVM

Considering the geological hazards attributed to the highway slope, using a common simple model cannot accurately assess the stability of the slope. First, principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted to extract the principal components of six factors (namely, bulk density, cohesion, internal friction angle, slope angle, slope height, and pore water pressure ratio) affecting the slope stability. Second, four principal components were adopted as input variables of the support vector machine (SVM) model optimized by genetic algorithm (GA). The output variable was slope stability. Lastly, the assessing model of highway slope stability based on PCA-GA-SVM is established. The maximal absolute error of the model is 0.0921 and the maximal relative error is 9.21% by comparing the assessment value and the practical value of the test sample. The above studies are conducive to enrich the assessing model of highway slope stability and provide some reference for highway slope engineering treatment.     

基于小波变换的长周期桥梁选波方法研究

时程分析输入地震波的选取对长周期大跨度桥梁影响显著。本文基于规范目标谱,以MATLAB为依托,通过选取最优小波基并利用小波系数迭代法实现频域调整,使地震波反应谱不断逼近给定目标谱,最后结合相对误差和长周期拟合参数两个指标进行综合评价,选取适用于长周期大跨度桥梁的时程分析地震波,提出长周期桥梁全过程批量选波方法。将该方法应用于奉节长江大桥,与基于时域调整方法的Seismo Match选波软件对比选波效果,并将选波结果应用于背景桥梁的时程分析。结果表明,利用本文选波方法所得结构关键截面响应与软件选波所得响应在横桥向和竖桥向存在一定差异。本文方法可为长周期大跨度桥梁时程分析选波提供参考。     

GPS单频机电离层延迟改正新算法

探讨了几种新的电离层延迟改正算法,通过算例检验了新方案的效率和可行性,对不同精度用户选取电离层延迟改正方案给出了建议。     

黔中—渝南铝土矿含矿岩系微量元素区域分布特征及物质来源探讨

黔中—渝南成矿带石炭纪铝土矿含矿岩系,分别形成于修文、息烽—遵义和黔北—渝南三个沉积区,大多数铝土矿属产于碳酸盐岩侵蚀面上的、少数为产于泥页岩侵蚀面上的硬水铝石沉积型铝土矿床。修文沉积区铝土矿中Zr、RE2O3含量最多,息烽—遵义沉积区铝土矿中Ga含量最多,黔北—渝南沉积区Li含量最多,各有特色。修文沉积区铝土矿含矿岩系的母岩,是其下伏寒武系碳酸盐岩与下奥陶统页岩、灰岩、白云岩;息烽—遵义沉积区含矿岩系的母岩为下伏下奥陶统页岩、灰岩及白云岩;黔北—渝南沉积区含矿岩系的母岩,是下伏下志留统泥、页岩和上石炭统石灰岩。碳酸盐岩中Al2O3与稳定的微量元素含量甚少,要演变成大面积铝土矿,必须要配以足够的含Al2O3和微量元素较多的泥、页岩,才可能满足形成大规模铝土矿的物质需求。     

On Minerogenetic Series: The Third Discussion

The minerogenetic (or metallogenetic) series of mineral deposits (called minerogenetic series for short) is an academic idea (concept) of studying minerogenetic characteristics in mineral deposit geology. It uses the views of systematology and mobilism to study mineralizing processes and naturally occurring mineral deposit assemblages formed in various stages of geological development in specific tectonic environments. The minerogenetic series is also a natural classification of mineral deposits. There are five hierarchical orders in the classification, with the minerogenetic series as the basic order and the core. The first order includes three categories: minerogenetic series association, minerogenetic series type, and minerogenetic series group. The second is the minerogenetic series, which is decomposed into three orders, i.e. the third, fourth, and fifth orders. The third is the minerogenetic subseries, the fourth is mineral deposit models (types), and the fifth is mineral deposits. Minerogenetic series is comparable to a certain extent metallogenic systems both in the research content and in their own research content. The study of minerogenetic series has both great theoretical significance and practical value for mineral prospecting. However, the study is still in its initial stage and a further study remains to be conducted.     

相关和频谱分析法在岩溶系统中的应用研究综述

岩溶含水层由多重含水介质组成,具有高度的非均质性,从系统角度出发,将岩溶系统看作是一个过滤器,将降雨作为输入信号,泉流量、水位、电导率、浊度等物理化学参数作为输出量进行相关和频谱分析是认识岩溶系统内部结构特征的有效方法。文章综述了相关和频谱分析法在岩溶系统研究中的应用,首先介绍了相关和频谱分析法基本理论的形成、发展过程和研究意义,然后总结了如何根据不同的研究目的选择相关和频谱分析法使用的时间序列的长度、周期和类型,最后阐述了该方法应用于岩溶系统分析的局限性。