Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Insurance Rates for Turkey

A probabilistic model is presented to obtain a realistic estimate of earthquake insurance rates for reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey. The model integrates information on seismic hazard and information on expected earthquake damage on engineering facilities in a systematic way, yielding to estimates of earthquake insurance premiums. In order to demonstrate the application of the proposed probabilistic method, earthquake insurance rates are computed for reinforced concrete buildings constructed in five cities located in different seismic zones of Turkey. The resulting rates are compared with the rates currently charged by the insurance companies. The earthquake insurance rates are observed to be sensitive to the assumptions on seismic hazard and damage probability matrices and to increase significantly with increasing violation of the code requirements.     

Human Losses Expected in Himalayan Earthquakes

Quantitative estimates of potential losses that may be caused by future great earthquakes along the Himalaya suggest that as many as 150,000 people may die, 300,000 may be injured and typically 3,000 settlements will be affected in a single event. Scenario results used here vary and are based on ruptures of 150 km segments of the plate boundary at seven positions, where sufficient elastic energy is believed to be stored for magnitude eight earthquakes. The method of calculating these results was calibrated, using the 17 disastrous Indian earthquakes, which have occurred since 1980. About 50 settlements in the region are considered most at risk because in each more than 2000 fatalities may occur.     

Roadway construction in karst areas: management of stormwater runoff and sinkhole risk assessment

In karst-rich regions, it is inevitable that roadways cross karst landscapes. Road building across such terranes faces environmental and engineering challenges because of impacts on water quality from stormwater runoff and concerns of sinkhole collapse under or near roadways. When highway runoff drains rapidly into subsurface conduit networks through open sinkholes and/or sinking streams, the impact of the runoff on the karst aquifer can be qualitatively evaluated by mixing cell models. Formulation of a comprehensive stormwater runoff management plan prior to roadway construction can minimize the associated adverse impacts. The commonly used best management practices help manage the stormwater runoff effectively in some sites. Site-specific management plans are preferable for other sites because of concerns of flooding and land stability. Proactive measures should be taken to identify areas of the greatest sinkhole collapse risk along the proposed route and the associated groundwater drainage patterns.     

Methodological Considerations for the Evaluation of Seismic Risk on Road Network

The recent earthquakes in California and Japan have shown the fundamental role that the road infrastructure plays in emergencies. In fact, only the maintenance of a sufficient level of efficiency can help to quickly reach the affected areas and thus avoid further serious consequences. The necessity of guaranteeing the functionality of the transport network during seismic events therefore requires seismic risk planning extended also to the road infrastructures in order to support the management of post-earthquake emergencies. Analogously it is fundamentally important to have analysis instruments of the road system able to preventatively evaluate the effects of earthquakes in order to identify possible emergencies, therefore preparing a program of intervention to reduce seismic risk on road networks. This paper proposes a methodology for the evaluation of seismic risk of road infrastructures according to the following points:Study of seismic hazard of the site for the definition of a seismic scenario using attenuation models in relation to historical seismology and the geological and tectonic characteristics of the territory;Analysis of the direct exposure connected to the probability of the presence of road users on the different parts of the network directly exposed to the seismic event;Analysis of the indirect exposure relative to the distribution of the population and the infrastructures for which post-earthquake accessibility must be guaranteed;Evaluation of the functional vulnerability in relation to the potential replaceability of damaged stretches considering network configuration and geometrical characteristics;Evaluation of structural vulnerability of the stretch correlated to the characteristics (structural, mechanical, technological, etc.) of the different components (bridges, embankments, trenches, tunnels) that make up the stretches obtained by the use of correctly elaborated tables for each component.The determination of global risk indexes of the single stretches and of the network, evaluated by means of a relationship between the ascertained parameters derived from the investigation of the previous points, provides the necessary information for the definition of mitigation measures to reduce the risk and for management planning before and after disaster. The proposed methodology, which has already been applied to a restricted area, is currently being applied to the province of Catania (Sicily, Italy), which is one of the geographical regions of highest seismic risk in Europe, and its future extension to all of eastern Sicily is foreseeable.     

Situating local experience of risk: Peripherality, marginality and place identity in the UK foot and mouth disease crisis

Research into exposure to, and experience of, environmental risk that has an explicitly spatial focus can be broadly differentiated into two strands. The first strand focuses on the responses of communities of exposure (or the threat of exposure) to some form of environmental hazard and to the policies put in place by institutional actors to manage the hazard. The second strand addresses social inequalities in exposure to environmental hazards and seeks to correlate uneven spatial distributions of risk across different social groups. It is argued that both strands are limited by their respective understandings of space - and that the way in which vulnerable communities experience environmental risk and its management will be shaped significantly by the complex interactions of different spatialisations or constructions of space. We explore this process by examining accounts of local experience of the UK’s 2001 foot and mouth disease crisis and its management in terms of the interplay of two different spatialisations: socio-cultural marginality and political-economic peripherality. We trace the relationship between these cultural and political-economic spatialisations through an analysis of the discursive mobilisation of contrasting place rhetorics. We conclude that focusing on these rhetorics can enhance our understanding of the spatial processes which are constitutive of place identity and in turn mediate the experience of environmental risk and its management.     

危险率函数在地表破裂型地震危险性评估中的应用—以宁夏灵武断裂为例

在对中国北部板内地区的古地震资料拟合、给出时间相依的统计模型基础上,利用近期获取的灵武断裂有关资料和危险率函数,对灵武断裂未来一定时段的发震潜势和当前地震危险性特征进行了分析,认为该断裂已进入发震时段,在未来10－100年内有发生7．0－7．5级左右地震的潜势。     

1999年岫岩5.6级地震序列活动跟踪研究

我们在以往研究大地震余震序列活动过程的基础上,根据“八五”和九五“以来较新的地震学分析预报方法,对1999年11月29日岫岩5.6级地震序列进行了详细研究,结果认为,该地震序列活动过程到2000年10月已经结束,其后发生的地震为正常的余震活动,同时,对震区未来一定时期地震活动趋势及地震危险性也作了预测。     

Issues in sediment toxicity and ecological risk assessment

This paper is based on a facilitated Workshop and Roundtable Discussion of key issues in sediment toxicology and ecological risk assessment (ERA) as applied to sediments that was held at the Conference on Dredged Material Management: Options and Environmental Considerations. The issues addressed included how toxicity is defined and perceived, how it is measured, and how it should be used within the context of ERA to support management decisions. The following conclusions were reached regarding scientific considerations of these issues. Toxicity is a measure of hazard and not a risk per se. Thus, toxicity testing is a means but not the end to understand risks of sediments. Toxicity testing cannot presently be replaced by chemical analyses to define hazard. Toxicity test organisms need to be appropriate to the problem being addressed, and the results put into context relative to both reference and baseline comparisons to understand hazard. Use of toxicity tests in sediment ERAs requires appropriate endpoints and risk hypotheses, considering ecological not just statistical significance, and recognizing that hazard does not equate to risk. Toxicity should be linked to population and community response to support decision-making, assessing possible genotypic adaptations that can influence risk estimates, and addressing uncertainty. Additionally, several key scientific issues were identified to improve future sediment ERAs, including the need to improve basic understanding of ecological mechanisms and processes, recognition of variability in the assessment process, and an improved focus and ability to assess risks to populations and communities.     

渤海盆地地震周期模式和地震危险性分析

根据历史地震资料,分析了渤海中部与胶辽海峡的地震周期模式。结果表明,时间可预测模式比滑动可预测模式更接近胶辽海峡历史地震的时间序列特征。按时间可预测模型外推,胶辽海峡下次强震可能发生在２１世纪初期,渤中地区历史地震序列特征复杂,一些关键地硅的震级修订造成预测模型改变,使渤中地区地震发生时间的不确定性增大,不利于渤海盆地地震的长期预测。影响长期预测准确性的主要因素是历史地震震级的可靠性、准确性、直接