The relationships between earthquakes and positions of the sun and moon（Ⅱ）——Sometemporalcharacteristicsoftheaftershocksequencesofstrongearthquakes

Ｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｓｈｉｐｓｂｅｔｗｅｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓａｎｄｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｔｈｅｓｕｎａｎｄｍｏｏｎ（Ⅱ）——Ｓｏｍｅｔｅｍｐｏｒａｌｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｔｈｅａｆｔｅｒｓｈｏｃｋｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓｏｆｓｔｒｏｎｇｅ...     

广西及邻区中等地震前地震活动参数时间扫描异常特征

分析了广西及邻区中等地震前7种地震活动性参数的时间扫描异常特征,结果表明,地震活动性参数的分析可以提取中等地震前的异常信息,在中等地震前异常明显,对广西及邻区未来中强地震的震情分析有一定的预报意义。     

东北地震活动性短期预报方法研究

研究了1970年以来东北地区发生的MS≥5·0浅源地震孕育过程中地震活动性参数和地震活动图像的变化特征,并对地震活动性参数进行了比较系统地综合预报效能评价,结果显示:东北9次(组)浅震地震前,所研究的5项地震活动性参数中,88·9%出现了持续3个月以上的短期异常变化,且5项参数R值评分结果都满足97·5%的置信水平;88·9%地震前震源区附近出现了孕震空区,有87·5%孕震空区在空区边缘或空区内部出现了ML≥4·0逼近地震,逼近地震以单个或成对的形式出现。66·7%的地震在震源区附近出现了地震条带异常。最后给出东北地区中强震的短期预报方法,这对未来东北地区的地震预报工作将起着一定的参考意义。     

柴油的中重度风化鉴别指标研究

以柴油为研究对象,采用溢油风化模拟实验,从分子级水平揭示中长期风化作用对溢油组成的影响。利用相对偏差和重复性限法进行评价和筛选,研究表明,柴油在较短时间(10 d)内,phytane/n-C18和pristine/phytane特征比率可较好地作为油品鉴别的依据;在10~30 d的风化期间,pristine/phytane仍可作为油品鉴别的依据;较长期的风化过程后,上述三个正构烷烃特征比率对于油品鉴别已不再具备意义。所选多环芳烃诊断比值指标中,除MNR、MP/P外,其他参数(MPI-1,MPI-2,Rc,MPDF1,MPDF2,MNR)相对标准偏差在1.10%~5.40%,可较好地用于重度风化溢油源鉴定。     

New geomorphic evidence for anticlinal growth driven by blind-thrust faulting along the northern Marche coastal belt (central Italy)

The Northern Marche coastal belt is characterised by a series of NW-SE trending, NE verging folds forming the easternmost edge of the Apennines thrust front. Several geomorphic features suggest that the folds are still growing and hence that the thrust front is active. The occurrence of several historical and instrumental earthquakes (e.g. 1672, 1690, 1786, 1875, 1916, 1930, 1972, all having M_e 5.2) suggests that the thrust faults are also seismogenic.We performed a geomorphological analysis to identify and characterise the faults driving the active folds. Our approach assumes that anomalous drainage patterns and deformed Middle-Late Pleistocene alluvial and coastal terraces are indicators of the vertical component of tectonic strain. We identified, mapped and correlated with sea-level fluctuations a sequence of alluvial and coastal terraces. Longitudinal profiles of six rivers (Conca, Foglia, Metauro, Cesano, Misa, and Esino) show that terraces (1) consistently converge downstream, suggesting that they result from regional uplift that dies out near the coast, and (2) some are slightly warped where they cross anticline axes. We interpreted as coastal terraces several land-surface remnants arranged parallel to the present coastline. Lower remnants clearly top off gently landward-tilted coastal deposits. Reconstructed coastal terraces also seem to be tectonically warped.Our results help characterise the geometry and segmentation of a system that generated the largest earthquakes of the region and suggest the loci of potential seismic gaps. We conclude that the earthquake potential of the densely populated northern Marche coastal belt may be substantially higher than currently estimated.     

农户的非农就业如何影响中国的土地流转?

To clarify the impact of non-agricultural employment on rural land circulation in China,we built logit models using the Chinese Household Income Project 2013 dataset,which includes 18,948 household samples over 15 provinces,126 cities and 234 counties of China in 2013.We use the proportion of non-agricultural income,the proportion of non-agricultural laborers and non-agricultural fixed operating assets to reflect the degree of the households’dependence on agriculture,the degree of the households’laborers committed to non-agricultural employment and the stability of non-agricultural employment,respectively.The results show that the stability of non-agricultural employment is an important reason for farmers to transfer out their land,and an increase in non-agricultural income is the fundamental reason.The proportion of non-agricultural assets has the greatest impact on the decision to transfer land,followed by the proportion of non-agricultural income.Per unit increase in the non-agricultural income ratio has a stronger effect on the transfer-out decision than it does on the transfer-in decision,which is a 0.09 increase of the probability of transfer-out the land and a 0.07 decrease of the probability of transfer-in the land.In terms of regional differences,when considering the impact of non-agricultural employment on the land transfer-out decision,the impacts of non-agricultural income and labor force are the greatest in the Central region.The impact of non-agricultural assets is the greatest in the Eastern region.For the Eastern region,the decision to transfer out land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets and the non-agricultural labor force,and the decision to transfer in land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets.In the Central and Western regions,the decision to transfer out land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets,non-agricultural income and the non-agricultural labor force,in that order.The decision to transfer in land in the Central region is not significantly affected by non-agricultural employment.The decision to transfer in land in the Western region is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets,non-agricultural labor force and non-agricultural income,in that order.We note that non-agricultural assets have a prominent impact on land transfer,which shows that the stability of non-agricultural employment has an important impact on land transfer decision-making.Vocational training for rural labor forces may be an effective means to promote stable non-agricultural employment and simultaneously facilitate rural land circulation,especially in Central and Western China.     

市场转型背景下北京市中低收入居民的住房机会与职住分离研究

基于北京市9个不同类型中低收入社区的600位就业者的问卷调查数据,通过构建多元线性回归模型,验证了住房机会（住房搬迁机会）以及就业机会（工作单位类型）等市场转型过程中的制度性因素对中低收入者就业可达性的影响。研究表明,北京市中低收入居民中,国有企业单位及非国有企业单位就业者相对于行政事业单位就业者,显著地承受更大程度的职住分离,体现出单位制度残留的持续影响。由于政府保障性住房项目而搬迁的中低收入居民职住分离程度最大,而因个人原因发生居住搬迁的中低收入者职住距离则相对较近。拥有北京市户口的本地内生型中低收入者、非户主低收入者、男性低收入者的职住分离程度显著更大。最后,北京市中低收入者的月收入与其职住距离成显著正相关,表明市场因素开始发挥作用,但当考虑了住房搬迁机会变量后,部分市场化因素的影响不仅减弱并且变得不显著,而制度性因素的影响变得更强且统计上显著。由此说明,对于转型期的城市中低收入者而言,计划经济下再分配制度的残留与路径依赖以及城市空间的结构性调整对其职住关系的影响更为显著。     

Is Larger Scale Better? Evidence from Rice Farming in Jianghan Plain

Small-scale household agricultural production has been in conflict with China’s agricultural modernization. In the context of vigorously promoting rural land circulation and moderate scale management nationwide, research on the relationship between farm size and scale efficiency has become increasingly important. In this paper, we use the “DEA-OLS” two stage method to analyze data from 368 surveys of rice farming households in the Jianghan Plain. The scale efficiency of rice farming was calculated, and the relationship between farm size and scale efficiency investigated. The results indicate that (1) the rice farm size is generally small in Jianghan Plain, with an average of 0.77 ha. The average scale efficiency is 0.88, and it is the main factor limiting an increase in comprehensive technical efficiency. Moreover, 88.32% of households are in the stage of increasing returns to scale. (2) There is a stable inverted “U” type relationship between rice farm size and scale efficiency. Considering characteristics of the householder, the household and land quality, the maximum scale efficiency corresponds to a household with 5 ha of rice farm. (3) Among householder characteristics, age has a significant negative influence on scale efficiency, and scale efficiency is lower for a household whose householder is engaged in non-farm work than for one whose householder is devoted to farming. As for land quality, there was a significant positive effect of irrigation on scale efficiency. Among family characteristics, the application of a machine during the seeding process increased scale efficiency by 3.07%. Therefore, we suggest that local government should actively promote rural land circulation, implement a staged-scale management subsidy, and other forms of support for the purchase of agricultural machinery and technical popularization. Increased investment in irrigation improvements and mechanical facilities and encouragement of farmers to enlarge their farm size could improve scale efficiency and farming profit and lead to the development of moderate scale management.     

云南地区中小震分布的活动构造意义

利用2000年1月至2010年11年间云南地震台网有定位结果的19 737个中小地震和从公元前20年至2009年11月共567次破坏地震震中,探讨云南地区地震空间分布与构造活动的关系,结果表明:地震震中密集分布地带是现今活动构造主要位置,地震震中的空间分布具有明显的活动构造意义。     

利用CAP 方法快速计算云南地区中小地震震源机制解

地震的震源机制解是反应区域应力场的重要参数,充分利用数量众多的中小地震将有助于获得更高精度的区域应力场分布。本文以滇西地震预报实验场下关虚拟测震台网为例,介绍了利用虚拟台网产出数据,采用CAP 方法计算中小地震震源机制解的流程,并将该方法应用于计算云南地区2013 年2 月～ 2014 年2 月间MS≥3. 0 的64 次中小地震震源机制解。结果显示:①本文给出的方法为一种半自动处理方法,该方法可以在地震速报结果之后45 分钟之内给出震源机制解,分析认为影响震源机制解快速产出的主要因素是格林函数库的建立和编程实现标注P 波到时的全自动化;②云南地区中小地震震源机制解以走滑为主,但在香格里拉和洱源地区有少量正断层地震存在,位于研究区域内中小地震P 轴主应力方向在川滇菱形块体南部以北北西-南南东为主,而在印支板块则主要以北北东-南南西为主。