人工神经网络方法预报长江上游流域面雨量的探讨

利用1998～2000年3～11月长江上游六大流域逐日降水实况和MAPS、T106(T213)、欧洲中心等数值产品资料，采用人工神经网络方法，建立了六大流域强降水面雨量等级预报模型。并于2002年6～9月进行了业务试验。     

阿克苏霜期规律初探

通过分析1971～2000年阿克苏市初、终霜期及无霜期序列，初步探讨了它们的变化趋势、分布频率等气候特征，指出了初霜期推迟、终霜期提前、无霜期增长的变化趋势，而这种变化趋势与气候变暖理论相一致。     

舟山港台风风暴潮的分析及预报

利用 1 956～ 2 0 0 0年舟山市定海验潮站潮位观测资料 ,对历年影响舟山的台风风暴潮灾进行了全面的统计分析。将台风按路径分型 ,分析了不同路径台风风暴潮的特点 ,并用基于PRESS准则的逐步回归方法 ,建立了不同路径风暴潮的预报模型。     

地震资料曲流河辫状河油气储层识别与预测

曲流河、辫状河储层在我国的陆相盆地中广泛分布。由于曲流河相沉积砂体的单层薄、横向变化；辫状河相沉积的砂体迁移快、垂向加积等特点，增加了在勘探过程中对其分辨的难度。因此，对地震资料曲流河、辫状河油气储层的识别与预测，必须综合多种与其相关的地质资料，结合地震数据体中给出的信息来判断分析，以达到提高分辨率的目的。     

第二松花江流域水电厂综合中长期水文预报的分析研究

基于对第二松花江流域上游小山、松山、两江水电站中长期水文预报研究成果，论述了综合中长期水文预报的研究思路和定性预报、定量预报的分析研究方法。该研究通过2002年实践检验，具有较高的预报精度。     

通用洪水预报模型库设计建设研究

在介绍洪水预报模型库的基本概念和性质的基础上，分析了各类洪水预报模型的输入、输出数据类型，规定了各类数据文件格式，设计了洪水预报模型库的通用数据接口，并在中国洪水预报系统中实现了通用洪水预报模型库的建设。     

地下水水位时间序列中的混沌特征

利用相空间重构技术、G -P算法以及Wolf提出的从单变量中提取Lyapunov指数的方法 ,分别计算了太原盆地 4组地下水水位时间序列的关联维数和Lyapunov指数。结果揭示在自然状态下 ,太原盆地某些孔隙潜水和孔隙承压水水位变化存在明显的混沌特征。这不仅为以后建立水位预测模型提供了理论依据 ,并且也为运用分形理论研究地质参数的时空变异性以及含水层结构的自相似性提供了进一步的支持。     

Nation states, ideological power and globalisation: can geographers catch the boat?

After a period of considerable and sustained hegemony, many commentators have argued that contemporary processes of globalisation are acting as a challenge to nation state sovereignty. The paper argues that geographers need to focus on the ways in which the nation state continues to act, albeit in a modified manner, within the era of globalisation. This might help to position geography within globalisation debates, which--according to Dicken [Geographers and `globalization': (yet) another missed boat? forthcoming, Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 2004]--we have not been centrally involved in. Drawing on the work of Michael Mann, we focus on a neglected dimension of state power--namely, its ideological form--as a means of exploring how the nation state is being differentially re-engineered under globalisation. Using Mann's classification of forms of ideological organisation, we deploy three vignettes in order to demonstrate the evolving nature of ideological power within the contemporary UK State.     

中巴地球资源一号卫星CCD图像质量评价和交叉定标研究

使用定量分析方法评价了中巴地球资源卫星CCD相机遥感数据质量 ,在此基础上利用LANDSAT 7ETM 对CCD的对应波段进行交叉定标计算 ,得到了一组CCD的参考定标系数。在遥感数据质量评价研究中 ,使用统计分析方法计算得到了CCD相机图像数据的条纹强度 ;应用结构函数方法计算获得了CCD的噪声数据 ;通过功率谱计算 ,对比分析了CCD和LANDSAT 7ETM 对应波段图像空间纹理特征。该文通过交叉定标计算 ,得到了CCD相机前 4个波段的参考定标系数、动态范围和噪声等效反射率等参考指标 ,并对这组定标系数进行了验证 ,从验证结果中发现CCD1,2 ,3和LANDSAT 7ETM 对应波段反射率最大相差 1 98% ,最小0 0 3% ,平均差要低于 1 31% ,而波段 4最大也仅相差 4 4 1% ,平均差 3 0 2 % ,证明计算得到的交叉定标系数具有较高的参考价值     

Splash-saltation trajectories of soil particles under wind-driven rain

It is usually recognized that relatively large amounts of soil particles cannot be transported by raindrop splashes under windless rain. However, the splash-saltation process can cause net transportation in the prevailing wind direction since variations in splash-saltation trajectory due to the wind are expected in wind-driven rain. Therefore, determining the combined effect of rain and wind on the process should enable improvement of the estimation of erosion for any given prediction technique. This paper presents experimental data on the effects of slope aspect, slope gradient, and horizontal wind velocity on the splash-saltation trajectories of soil particles under wind-driven rain. In a wind tunnel facility equipped with a rainfall simulator, the rains driven by horizontal wind velocities of 6, 10, and 14 m s⁻¹ were allowed to impact three agricultural soils packed into 20×55 cm soil pans placed at both windward and leeward slopes of 7%, 15%, and 20%. Splash-saltation trajectories were measured by trapping the splashed particles at distances downwind on a 7-m uniform slope segment in the upslope and downslope directions, respectively, for windward and leeward slopes. Exponential decay curves were fitted for the mass distribution of splash-saltation sediment as a function of travel distance, and the average splash-saltation trajectory was derived from the average value of the fitted functions. The results demonstrated that the average trajectory of a raindrop-induced and wind-driven soil particle was substantially affected by the wind shear velocity, and it had the greatest correlation (r=0.96 for all data) with the shear velocity; however, neither slope aspect nor slope gradient significantly predicted the splash-saltation trajectory. More significantly, a statistical analysis conducted with nonlinear regression model of C₁(u_*²/g) showed that average trajectory of splash saltation was approximately three times greater than that of typical saltating sand grain.