基于层次分析法的可拓学理论在山区公路泥石流危险性评价中的应用

基于可拓工程方法,在物元模型理论的基础上建立了公路泥石流危险性评价的物元模型,并采用层次分析法计算物元模型中各评价指标的权系数。通过实际公路泥石流危险性等级的关联度计算,对四川地区雅泸高速公路的5条泥石流沟进行了评价,得出与实际相符合的结论。并与其他评价方法相比表明：该方法不仅可以应用在泥石流危险性评价上,而且所得的结果会更加合理,具有较好的适用性。     

Sedimentary characteristics of terrigenous debris at site MD05-2905 in the northeastern part of the South China Sea since 36 ka and evolution of the East Asian monsoon

Sediments with high sedimentation rate at site MD05-2905 in the Northeastern slope of the South China Sea provide unique materials for a high-resolution study on the paleoenvironment. Based on precise dating of AMS ¹⁴C, grain size analysis of terrigenous debris at core MD05-2905 was conducted after organic matter, biological carbonate and biogenic opal were removed. The results show that 15.5–63.5 μm coarse grain size ingredients may indicate East Asian winter monsoon changes and that 2–9 μm fine grain size ingredients may be used as a proxy of evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon. The results of grain size analysis, which suggest East Asian monsoon intensity, reveal that a winter monsoon dominated the glacial regime and a summer monsoon dominated the Holocene regime. It was also shown that the summer monsoon increased gradually, experienced several abrupt changes and reached a culmination in the early Holocene (11200–8500 a B.P.) since 36 ka. Controlled by precession periodicity, it may be related with the amount of solar radiation at the highest stage, which needs further study. __________ Translated from Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(10): 1012–1018 [译自: 地球科学进展]     

A Block-Based Theoretical Model Suited to Gravitational Sliding

An original theoretical model has been devised to simulate mass flow over hill slopes due to gravitational sliding. The sliding mass is discretized into a sequence of contiguous blocks which are subjected to gravitational forces, to bottom friction and to surface resistance stresses that are generally negligible for subaerial flows, but are relevant for submarine slides. The blocks interact with each other while sliding down the hill flanks because of internal forces that dissipate mechanical energy and produce a momentum exchange between the individual blocks, yet conserving the total momentum of the mass. Internal forces are expressed in terms of interaction coefficients depending on the instantaneous distance between the block centers of mass, which is a measure of the deformation experienced by the blocks: the functional dependence includes three parameters, namely the interaction intensity ¯, the deformability parameter and the shape parameter , by means of which a wide range of interaction types can be fully accounted for. The time integration is performed numerically by solving the equations for the block velocities and positions at any time ti by means of the block accelerations at the previous time t_i-1, and by subsequently updating the block accelerations, which allows to proceed iteratively to the following times. The model has been tested against laboratory results available from literature and by means of several numerical experiments involving a simplified geometry both for the sliding body and the basal surface, with the purpose of clarifying the influence of the model parameters on the slide dynamics. The model improves the performance of the existing kinematic models for slides, moreover preserving an equivalent numerical simplicity. Future applications and possible improvements of this model are suggested.     

TAUVEX - Tel Aviv University UV Explorer

TAUVEX - Tel Aviv University UV Explorer is a space telescope that is currently being built in Israel, to be flown on board the Russian international sattelite SRG - Spectrum Roentgen Gamma, in late 1995 or early 1996. TAUVEX is an imager in the near UV spectral window. Its major goal is to make a survey of about 10% of the UV sky, in the range = 1350 - 3500Å. A successful operation of TAUVEX will partially fill an important gap in our recognition of the sky, namely the distribution and the nature of the celestial UV sources, which are still mostly unknown. TAUVEX will also operate as a fast multicolor photometer in its UV range of operation. TAUVEX is aligned in parallel to the common optical axix of all the other instruments on board SRG, most of which are telescopes and monitors for high energy radiation. SRG will be thus able to perform for the first time in history simultaneous astronomical observations in one and the same celestial body, that cover together 7 order of magnitude of the recorded radiation. The observations of TAUVEX can be greatly enhanced by ground base observations.     

良好植被区泥石流防治初探

通过对近年来发生在良好植被区的几次重大泥石流、滑坡灾害的考察,发现植被在泥石流、滑坡形成中的作用有待于进一步认识。通过分析,当中小强度降雨激发下,植被能够削减泥石流、滑坡灾害的规模,甚至抑制泥石流、滑坡灾害的发生;当降雨超过一定阀值后,在水作用下,植被不但不能削减灾害规模,反而增大灾害的规模。在这类地区,简单地使用一般的防治措施,已经不能满足防灾、减灾的需要,客观要求针对这些地区泥石流灾害的形成原因、危害特征,研究防治对策。经初步研究提出3点防治措施:1)加强泥石流滑坡灾害的预测预报工作;2)在重点区域设置自动雨量记录报警装置;3)特别针对漂木拦挡,采取新型结构减轻泥石流的危害。     

山地灾害研究的发展态势与任务

泥石流、滑坡等山地灾害已成为世界各国十分关注的自然灾害问题。据最近几年的国际学术会议,泥石流、滑坡研究的前沿领域是：泥石流、滑坡活动的地带性与全球气候变化的规律；泥石流、滑坡起动机理、动力学模型；泥石流、滑坡等山地灾害风险分析、发生时间预报；成灾机理与减灾防灾关键技术。国内研究较晚,但发展很快。经过近50 a的研究,涉及上述诸多研究颁域。但研究不深,还存在不少差距。据国内外研究态势,针对山地所实际,提出了在泥石流、滑坡理论创新和防治关键技术等研究方面12条任务。     

西北地区泥石流沟形态因素的非线性分析——以兰州市为例

以兰州市区96条主要的泥石流沟为例,利用分形理论的统计自相似性对泥石流沟数的累计分布随沟谷形态要素沟道比降、汇水面积和沟道长度的变化进行了分析;并与不同流域形态要素的分维进行了比较,探讨了分维不同的原因。兰州市区泥石流沟三个形态要素均具有统计意义上的自相似性,其中以汇水面积显示出分维最小(0.46),沟道长度次之(0.71),沟道比降最大(1.09)。分维的大小描述了作为系统的沟谷及其泥石流的形成的空间结构,即分形结构,同时也反映了不同形态要素对系统所起作用的差异,分维越小,所起作用越显著。其结果对西北干旱半干旱地区石流灾害的进一步研究与防治提供了新的思路。     

弯道超高法在泥石流流速计算中的应用——以四川省汶川县G317国道磨子沟泥石流为例

选取四川省汶川至马尔康公路线的磨子沟作为试验对象,采用弯道超高法推算其泥石流流速。进而可以计算出该次泥石流的平均流量,为公路的改建工程提供设计依据。经过实地调查,用此方法计算磨子沟2005年8月17日暴发的泥石流流速为4.4m/s。同其他流速方法计算的结果相比较,前者值偏大,且偏向于工程安全值。弯道超高法可以解决泥石流观测的局限性和泥石流发生的不可重复性。此方法简便易行,对泥石流防治工程具有一定的实用价值。     

Some Observations on the Use of Data from Historical Documents in Debris-Flow Studies

The knowledge of past events is important for the assessment of debris-flow hazard. Amongst the sources of information, documents from historical archives are particularly important in sites where the debris flows cause damage to urban areas and transportation routes. The paper analyses the availability of historical documents on debris flows in Northeastern Italy and discusses factors that can influence the building of time series from archive data both at regional and single basin scales. An increased number of debris flows was observed in the studied region for the last decades. This could be due both to an increased frequency of the events and to a larger availability of information: the analysis carried out indicates that the latter factor is probably the most influencing. The importance of factors, which affect the collection of data, including the conservation of documents and the presence and fragility of the elements at risk, is stressed in view of a wise use of historical data on debris flows.     

基于GIS的商业网点选址研究与实现

利用平面／网络优化模型，综合权衡市区选址的基本费用及商业网点日常经营的成本，引入交通便利因子作为限制条件，并运用直接搜索的Dixon方法，加强了不确定性选址问题的约束条件，降低不确定性问题计算的复杂度，减少在选址问题实现中主观因素对选址结果的影响。最后以某区新建商业网点选址为例，详细分析了直接搜索算法应用的具体过程。