末次冰期低纬度西太平洋硅藻席沉积与生态特征

硅藻在全球碳循环中发挥着重要的作用。"树荫种"硅藻在次表层水体中的勃发成席,并迅速埋藏成为硅藻席沉积,使人们逐渐意识到次表层生产在整个生产力及输出生产中起着重要作用。介绍了首次在低纬度西太平洋区域发现的硅藻席沉积的分布特征,硅藻席发现站位呈带状分布,大致呈北西-南东向展布,大部分散布在17.5°～20°N之间。采集到硅藻席沉积物的站位其水深在碳酸钙补偿深度(CCD)以下4837～6150m的深水区,多分布在较平坦的海底,且受风力和陆源物质输入影响相对较强的区域。该区域硅藻席的形成可能是由于末次冰期时该海区有大洋锋面的形成所致。该区域的成席硅藻Ethmodiscus rex(Wallich)Hendey为典型的"树荫种"硅藻,可以通过自身调节浮力的作用,在水体相对稳定的贫氧大洋中生存并勃发成席。末次冰期低纬度西太平洋硅藻席沉积的发生,可能使该区成为CO2的汇。     

喜马拉雅山东南地区地质灾害发育规律初步研究

利用遥感手段,结合MapGis,研究了喜马拉雅山东南地区地质灾害的发育情况,发现本区发育的主要地质灾害有滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、冰湖以及堰塞湖。其中崩塌、滑坡、泥石流斜坡地质灾害是本区最重要的地质灾害类型,占到总灾害数量的95.3%。在此基础上对喜马拉雅山东南地区地质灾害发育规律初步研究,发现本区地质灾害的发育在空间上的分布并非均匀,而是具有丛集性的特点。滑坡灾害主要发育在隆子和朗县。泥石流灾害比较严重的有米林、隆子和洛扎3县,而崩塌则主要集中在隆子县。研究发现,本区滑坡发育与地层、地形坡度以及土地类型关系密切,其中修康群、日当组和念青唐古拉群是本区的易滑地层。涅如组由于面积大,其中发育的滑坡较多,但是滑坡的发育率只略高于本区的平均水平。统计表明,16～30的坡度范围是滑坡最容易发生的。大于45以上的坡段很少发生滑坡。灌木林和天然草地这两种土地类型滑坡发育率最高。对于泥石流,研究表明,涅如组中泥石流发育面积最大,发育率也最高。泥石流发育的最适宜坡度也是16～30这样一个坡度范围。冰川和永久积雪区则最易发生泥石流。崩塌发育与地层类型、坡度的关系较为密切,崩塌主要发育在涅如组中,并且集中在坡度大于60以上的陡坡段中。这些初步成果的取得,是以后进行该区地质灾害空间预测的基础。     

Flandrian sea-level changes in the Fenland. II: Tendencies of sea-level movement,altitudinal changes,and local and regional factors

Stratigraphic, micropalaeontologic and radiocarbon data show that since c. 6500 BP the Fenland has been influenced by 7 periods of positive sea-level tendencies and by 6 periods of negative sea-level tendencies. Despite the numerous problems associated with the reconstruction of past altitudes of sea level the periods of positive sea-level tendencies were clearly characterised by a rise in sea level, the development of transgressive overlaps and a landward movement of the coastline. The periods of negative sea-level tendencies were characterised by the development of regressive overlaps, a seaward movement of the coastline and a reduced or negative rate of sea-level rise. The various altitudinal errors do not permit the incontrovertible distinction of periods of falling sea levels. All changes within the Fenland were not synchronous and local factors influenced the exact nature of each sea-level indicator. Dominant regional and local factors have been identified for different areas and different time periods. The chronological and spatial characteristics of the sequences within the Fenland are best explained by a palaeocoastline without supratidal barriers controlling sedimentation. The data indicate an average crustal subsidence in the Fenland of 0.9m/1000 years since c. 6500 BP and the pattern of positive and negative tendencies of sea-level movement is also seen in the chronologies for north west England and north east Scotland.     

Texture, mineralogy, and rock strength in horizontal stress-related coal mine roof falls

Geologic structures can represent planes of preferential weakness that, by dismembering the roof beam, may contribute to the failure of roof spans. However, beam deflection and roof failure also occur in rocks where no visible geologic discontinuities are present. This suggests that roof failure may depend on rock strength, which in turn depends on intrinsic textural properties inherent to the rock. In this study, rock samples were collected from horizontal stress-related roof fall material in coal mines for petrographic characterization and compressive strength testing. Brittle, stress failure-prone rock types include thinly interlaminated siltstone and shale, and black shale that had been lightly recrystallized. Samples exhibit a narrow range of density values between approximately 2.5–3.0 g/cm³ but exhibit a wide range of unconfined compressive strength values, between approximately 20–70 MPa. Results of laboratory observations suggest that for samples of coal mine immediate roof shale, compressive strength is not well correlated with density, grain size, sutured grain boundaries, or quartz content. These results for shale are generally at odds with the results of similar studies for sandstone. The great variability of strength, texture, and mineralogy documented in these samples may be an indication of their complexity and the need for specialized methodology in the study of shale strength.     

Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis: an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the virtues of three different methods: the quantifiable conventional approach to risk; the taxonomic analysis of perceived risk; and the analytical framework of a spatial multi-criteria analysis. This combination of methods is applied to the case study ‘Ebro Delta’ in Spain as part of the European sixth framework project ‘Floodsite’. First, a typology for flood hazards is developed based on individual and/or stakeholders’ judgements. Awareness, worry and preparedness are the three characteristics that typify a community to reflect various levels of ignorance, perceived security, perceived control or desired risk reduction. Applying ‘worry’ as the central characteristic, a trade-off is hypothesized between Worry and the benefits groups in society receive from a risky situation. Second, this trade-off is applied in Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis (SMCA). MCA is the vehicle that often accompanies participatory processes, where governmental bodies have to decide on issues in which local stakeholders have a say. By using risk perception-scores as weights in a standard MCA procedure a new decision framework for risk assessment is developed. Finally, the case of sea-level rise in the Ebro Delta in Spain serves as an illustration of the applied methodology. Risk perception information has been collected with help of an on-site survey. Risk perception enters the multi-criteria analysis as complementary weights for the criteria risk and benefit. The results of the survey are applied to a set of scenarios representing both sea-level rise and land subsidence for a time span of 50 years. Land use alternatives have been presented to stakeholders in order to provide the regional decision maker with societal preferences for handling risk. Even with limited resources a characteristic ‘risk profile’ could be drawn that enables the decision maker to develop a suitable land use policy.     

Migration patterns of Neolithic settlements on the abandoned Yellow and Yangtze River deltas of China

Archaeological records of the Neolithic settlements on the eastern China coast between 35°N and 30°N, an area covering the abandoned Yellow River and the Yangtze River delta plains, reveal that Neolithic people moved from the Yellow River basin onto the northern coast for fishing, hunting and dry-land agriculture ~ 7000 yr ago. Marine transgression interrupted their activities on the low-lying (2-5 m in elevation) coastal wetlands between 6000 and 5000 yr ago, after which they reclaimed their land near the river mouths. Their migration routes on the southern Yangtze delta plain indicate another scenario: early Neolithic communities moved onto the plain for wet-rice cultivation. Despite relative sea-level rise from 7000 to 4000 yr ago, a large number of settlements were established on the lowlands between the eastern Chenier Ridges and the western Taihu Lake depression. The Chenier Ridges, with ~ 1.0 m higher topography than the adjacent coastal area, played a role in sheltering the Neolithic people. Subsequently, settlements waned considerably, possibly due to further marine inundation combined with cold climate. The present study shows that migration patterns of the Neolithic settlements are closely associated with a gradually rising sea level between 7000 and 4000 yr ago.     

周口分县短期天气预报系统

利用ECMMF格点预报产品和14年历史实况资料，在预报后日前后10天左右找相似，采用VC＋＋4．0和VB5．0编程，制作周口分县24h天气预报。经试验，预报准确率为68．6％。     

冰后期海面上升对长江中下游影响的探讨

本文通过地质、地貌和古水文调查资料的分析,并结合计算机数值模拟研究讨论了冰后期海面上升对长江中下游河床泥沙加积、水位变化,沿岸湖泊发育及荆江河曲形成的影响。     

太平洋几种海面要素的升降趋势及其对海平面上升的影响

对ＣＯＡＤＳ资料中１９５０－１９９２年太平洋４°×８°方区的海水表层温度及海面气温、气压、风速序列数据，进行了时间序列分析。分析结果表明：太平洋海表气温和水温年上升率分别为０．００６３℃·ａ（－１）和０．００２６℃·ａ（－１）。两者的变化趋势在赤道太平洋都有一个年上升率高值区；而在东海以北的西北太平洋广大海区，都有一个年下降率的低值区。西太平洋海面气压呈上升趋势，东太平洋则相反。气温和水温的升降区域分布特征与风速分量增强和减弱的变化趋势有关。文章还指出，中国和日本沿岸今后几十年海平面变化趋势的预测模式，应以太平洋或全球海平面上升趋势的预测为基础，加上本海区海平面的局地变化订正。     

Postglacial sea-level changes and development stages of fluvial-estuarine system

-On the basis of the data obtained from the investigations on some rivers in China and Australia, the author discusses the spatial and temporal changes of various portions of fluvial-estuarine system during postglacial sea-level rising in present coastal and deltaic areas. The evolution of a fluvial-estuarine system can be divided into four development stages: early transgression, late transgression, stationary and regression. Early transgression brought about filling-in of the paleo-valley formed in low stand of sea level. In response to late transgression the estuaries were created, during the stationary stage the big swamp was developed. The regression led to estuaries to be filled with sediments and then became deltas. At the same locality the fluvial-estuarine system changed with time. In the transgressive period the lower reach of a river changed into an estuary, and then became nearshore area. In the regressive period the nearshore area changed into an estuary , and then became delta.