Nonlinear dynamic finite element simulation of Alibey earth dam

In this study, dynamic behavior and earthquake resistance of Alibey earth dam was investigated. The dam was modeled with four node plane-strain finite elements (FE) and displacement-pore pressure coupled FE analyses were performed. Nonlinear material models such as pressure dependent and independent multi yield materials were implemented during the analyses. Transient dynamic FE analyses were performed with Newmark method. The Newton-Raphson solution scheme was adopted to solve the equations. Liquefaction and/or cyclic mobility effects were considered during the analysis. For the FE analyses, OpenSees (Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation) framework was adopted.     

Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment: An overview

The aim of this paper is to discuss a number of issues related to the use of spatial information for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The paper centers around the types of spatial data needed for each of these components, and the methods for obtaining them. A number of concepts are illustrated using an extensive spatial data set for the city of Tegucigalpa in Honduras. The paper intends to supplement the information given in the “Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning” by the Joint ISSMGE, ISRM and IAEG Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (JTC-1). The last few decades have shown a very fast development in the application of digital tools such as Geographic Information Systems, Digital Image Processing, Digital Photogrammetry and Global Positioning Systems. Landslide inventory databases are becoming available to more countries and several are now also available through the internet. A comprehensive landslide inventory is a must in order to be able to quantify both landslide hazard and risk. With respect to the environmental factors used in landslide hazard assessment, there is a tendency to utilize those data layers that are easily obtainable from Digital Elevation Models and satellite imagery, whereas less emphasis is on those data layers that require detailed field investigations. A review is given of the trends in collecting spatial information on environmental factors with a focus on Digital Elevation Models, geology and soils, geomorphology, land use and elements at risk.     

Timing of UHP metamorphism in the Hong’an area,western Dabie Mountains,China: evidence from zircon U–Pb age,trace element and Hf isotope composition

The Hong’an area (western Dabie Mountains) is the westernmost terrane in the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogen that preserves UHP eclogites. The ages of the UHP metamorphism have not been well constrained, and thus hinder our understanding of the tectonic evolution of this area. LA-ICPMS U–Pb age, trace element and Hf isotope compositions of zircons of a granitic gneiss and an eclogite from the Xinxian UHP unit in the Hong’an area were analyzed to constrain the age of the UHP metamorphism. Most zircons are unzoned or show sector zoning. They have low trace element concentrations, without significant negative Eu anomalies. These metamorphic zircons can be further subdivided into two groups according to their U–Pb ages, and trace element and Lu–Hf isotope compositions. One group with an average age of 239 ± 2 Ma show relatively high and variable HREE contents (527 ≥ Lu_N ≥ 14) and ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ratios (0.00008–0.000931), indicating their growth prior to a great deal of garnet growth in the late stage of continental subduction. The other group yields an average age of 227 ± 2 Ma, and shows consistent low HREE contents and ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ratios, suggesting their growth with concurrent garnet crystallization and/or recrystallization. These two groups of age are taken as recording the time of prograde HP to UHP and retrograde UHP–HP stages, respectively. A few cores have high Th/U ratios, high trace element contents, and a clear negative Eu anomaly. These features support a magmatic origin of these zircon cores. The upper intercept ages of 771 ± 86 and 752 ± 70 Ma for the granitic gneiss and eclogite, respectively, indicate that their protoliths probably formed as a bimodal suite in rifting zones in the northern margin of the Yangtze Block. Young Hf model ages (T _DM1) of magmatic cores indicate juvenile (mantle-derived) materials were involved in their protolith formation. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

CO2地质埋存渗漏风险及补救对策

目前,将CO2埋存于地下深部地质构造（如油气藏、煤层、地下含水层及岩溶盐腔）的减排方案能有效地减缓温室效应而备受关注。无论什么储集体,我们都希望CO2在地下埋存的时间越长越好。然而,对于一项具体工程的实施,必然存在一些客观和主观因素造成CO2渗漏,比如废弃井的不完善或不合理处理、地层断裂系统和水动力系统以及地震所造成的渗漏等等。存在渗漏就可能会对周围人和生态环境造成危害。因此,进行CO2地质埋存的风险评估是相当有必要的,是我们能长期有效安全地进行该项减排方案必不可少的基础和保证。本文即想从建立一套完整的风险评估、管理和监测体系的角度并以加拿大Weyburn油田为例,深入分析CO2地质埋存中可能存在的渗漏风险和途径,建立CO2渗漏风险评估机制,并针对具体的渗漏可能性提出相应的补救对策,为全球范围内,尤其对我国刚刚开展CO2地质埋存研究工作提供一些有益的思路。     

Integration and magnitude homogenization of the Egyptian earthquake catalogue

The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness, and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900–2004 and an area between 22°–33.5° N and 25°–36° E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M _W, through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the M _W thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900–1984) appears to be complete for M _W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985–2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M _W ≥ 3.     

Implementing low-cost landslide risk reduction: a pilot study in unplanned housing areas of the Caribbean

Landslides pose a serious physical and environmental threat to vulnerable communities living in areas of unplanned housing on steep slopes in the Caribbean. Some of these communities have, in the past, had to be relocated, at costs of millions of dollars, because of major slides triggered by tropical storm rainfall. Even so, evidence shows that: (1) risk reduction is a marginal activity; (2) there has been minimal uptake of hazard maps and vulnerability assessments and (3) there is little on-the-ground delivery of construction for risk reduction. This article directly addresses these issues by developing a low-cost approach to the identification of the potential pore pressure changes that trigger such slides we seek to address these three commentaries directly. A complex 45–60° slope site in St Lucia, West Indies was selected as a pilot for a modelling approach that uses numerical models (FLAC and CHASM) to verify the need for surface water management to effectively reduce landslide risk. Following the model confirmation, a series of drains were designed and constructed at the site. Post-construction evidence indicates the methodology to be sound, in that the site was stable in subsequent 1-in-1 to 1-in-4 year rainfall events. A critical feature of the approach is that it is community-based from data acquisition through to community members participating in construction.     

青藏高原西部赛利普中新世火山岩源区:地球化学及Sr-Nd同位素制约

青藏高原拉萨地块西部赛利普地区新生代火山岩依据主量元素可划分为超钾质、钾质和钙碱性系列,主要的岩石类型为粗面安山岩、粗面岩,一个超钾质岩石的40Ar-39Ar年龄为17.58Ma,指示出火山活动为中新世.超钾质、钾质和钙碱性火山岩都显示出富集LREE及LILE(Th、U)、亏损HFSE(Nb、Ta、Ti)的特征.超钾质火山岩具有较高的K2O(6.31%～8.55%)、MgO(6.75%～8.96%)、Cr(270.7×10-6～460.4×10-6)、Ni(142.3×10-6～233.9×10-6)含量,较高的(87Sr/86Sr)i(0.71883～0.72732)和较低的εNd(-14.78～-15.37),指示可能起源于一个前期亏损并经后期俯冲作用改造的富钾的方辉橄榄岩富集地幔源区.钾质火山岩具有比超钾质火山岩低的K2O、MgO、Cr、Ni含量以及高的Ba、Sr含量,初始87Sr/86Sr为0.71553～0.71628,初始143Nd/144Nd为0.51197～0.51198,在空间上与超钾质火山岩共生,可能是前者母岩浆的演化产物.钙碱性火山岩具有较高的Sr(881.7×10-6～1309.2×10-6)、Sr/Y比值(50～108)和较低的Y(12.05×10-6～18.02×10-6),明显亏损重稀土Yb(0.93×10-6～1.30×10-6),类似于典型的埃达克质岩成分特征但相对高钾,并具有相对低的(87Sr/86Sr);(0.70928～0.71374)以及高的εNd(-7.90～-10.91),指示起源于富钾增厚下地壳物质的部分熔融.区域上拉萨地块超钾质岩、钾质岩与N-S向地堑系在空间上共存、时间上相吻合,由此本文认为拉萨地块中新世钾质.超钾质岩和南北向地堑系的形成可能与中新世早期北向俯冲的印度大陆岩石圈断离有关.     

青藏高原东南木里地区二叠纪苦橄岩的Os-Sr-Nd同位素地球化学研究

本文报道了在青藏高原东南木里地区发现的二叠纪苦橄岩和与其共生玄武岩的主微量元素地球化学特征以及Os-Sr-Nd同位素组成。苦橄岩和与其共生玄武岩受地壳混染作用影响较小。根据苦橄岩的Ti/Y比值和初始的Os同位素组成,将木里苦橄岩分为两类:高Ti/Y型苦橄岩和低Ti/Y型苦橄岩,其中高Ti/Y型苦橄岩具有高的γ_(Os)= 5.3～ 10.7和ε_(Nd)= 5.9～ 6.4,与全球典型洋岛玄武岩的Os和Nd同位素组成接近,代表了地幔柱源区的同位素特征;而低Ti/Y型苦橄岩具有低的γ_(Os)=-4.1～ 1.2和ε_(Nd)= 3.2～ 5.0,可能表明受到了SCLM(大陆岩石圈地幔)源区物质的混染。与其共生的玄武岩具有低的γ_(Os)=-3.5～-1.6和ε_(Nd)=-0.6～ 0.7,表明其来自于不同于低Ti/Y型苦橄岩也有异于高Ti/Y型苦橄岩的地幔源区,但是也可能受到了SCLM物质的混染。基于Nd-Os同位素的地幔柱与SCLM的二端元混合模型显示:低Ti/Y型苦橄岩可能是SCLM物质组分与地幔柱起源的苦橄质原始岩浆混合形成的;与苦橄岩共生的玄武岩可能是由地幔柱来源的玄武质岩浆与SCLM小比例熔融的熔体混合形成的。     

西藏冈底斯带措勤地区则弄群火山岩锆石U-Pb年代学格架及构造意义

大规模的则弄群火山岩呈带状近东西向展布于西藏冈底斯带中北部地区.对出露状况较好的措勤地区则弄群火山岩进行了锆石U-Pb定年,以建立其年代学格架便于区域对比.措勤地区则弄群火山岩多数锆石具有生长振荡环带,部分锆石显示核边结构.在措勤达雄北西部上覆于中二叠统下拉组灰岩的1件则弄群英安岩样品的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Ph年龄为130±1Ma,1件则弄群流纹岩样品的SHRIMP锆石U-Pb年龄为129±3Ma;在措勤达雄北东部与下白垩统多尼组碎屑岩呈断层接触的1件则弄群英安岩样品中的锆石具有两组LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄,最年轻的一组(包括增生边)为121±1Ma,较老的一组(包括核部)为131±1Ma;在措勤南西部1件则异群流纹岩样品的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄为111±1Ma,与措勤地区花岗岩类的侵位时代相当.这些高质量的锆石U-Pb年代学数据表明,措勤地区的则弄群火山作用很可能开始于约130Ma,停息于约110Ma,持续时间约20Ma.区域对比表明,东西延伸约1000km的则弄群火山作用同时发生在约130Ma.区域上目前的年代学数据结合同时代岩浆作用的分布特征表明,冈底斯带中北部地区早白垩世岩浆作用不太可能由新特提斯洋壳向北的低角度或平板俯冲产生.