Changes in Jupiter’s zonal velocity between 1979 and 2008

We show that the peak velocity of Jupiter’s visible-cloud-level zonal winds near 24°N (planetographic) increased from 2000 to 2008. This increase was the only change in the zonal velocity from 2000 to 2008 for latitudes between ±70° that was statistically significant and not obviously associated with visible weather. We present the first automated retrieval of fast (∼130 m s⁻¹) zonal velocities at 8°N planetographic latitude, and show that some previous retrievals incorrectly found slower zonal winds because the eastward drift of the dark projections (associated with 5-μm hot spots) “fooled” the retrieval algorithms.We determined the zonal velocity in 2000 from Cassini images from NASA’s Planetary Data System using a global method similar to previous longitude-shifting correlation methods used by others, and a new local method based on the longitudinal average of the two-dimensional velocity field. We obtained global velocities from images acquired in May 2008 with the Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Longer-term variability of the zonal winds is based on comparisons with published velocities based on 1979 Voyager 2 and 1995-1998 HST images. Fluctuations in the zonal wind speeds on the order of 10 m s⁻¹ on timescales ranging from weeks to months were found in the 1979 Voyager 2 and the 1995-1998 HST velocities. In data separated by 10 h, we find that the east-west velocity uncertainty due to longitudinal fluctuations are nearly 10 m s⁻¹, so velocity fluctuations of 10 m s⁻¹ may occur on timescales that are even smaller than 10 h. Fluctuations across such a wide range of timescales limit the accuracy of zonal wind measurements. The concept of an average zonal velocity may be ill-posed, and defining a “temporal mean” zonal velocity as the average of several zonal velocity fields spanning months or years may not be physically meaningful.At 8°N, we use our global method to find peak zonal velocities of ∼110 m s⁻¹ in 2000 and ∼130 m s⁻¹ in 2008. Zonal velocities from 2000 Cassini data produced by our local and global methods agree everywhere, except in the vicinity of 8°N. There, the local algorithm shows that the east-west velocity has large variations in longitude; vast regions exceed ∼140 m s⁻¹. Our global algorithm, and all of the velocity-extraction algorithms used in previously-published studies, found the east-west drift velocities of the visible dark projections, rather than the true zonal velocity at the visible-cloud level. Therefore, the apparent increase in zonal winds between 2000 and 2008 at 8°N is not a true change in zonal velocity.At 7.3°N, the Galileo probe found zonal velocities of 170 m s⁻¹ at the 3-bar level. If the true zonal velocity at the visible-cloud level at this latitude is ∼140 m s⁻¹ rather than ∼105 m s⁻¹, then the vertical zonal wind shear is much less than the currently accepted value.     

Dynamics of Jupiter’s equatorial region at cloud top level from Cassini and HST images

We present a study of the equatorial region of Jupiter, between latitudes ∼15°S and ∼15°N, based on Cassini ISS images obtained during the Jupiter flyby at the end of 2000, and HST images acquired in May and July 2008. We examine the structure of the zonal wind profile and report the detection of significant longitudinal variations in the intensity of the 6°N eastward jet, up to 60 m s⁻¹ in Cassini and HST observations. These longitudinal variations are, in the HST case, associated with different cloud morphology. Photometric and radiative transfer analysis of the cloud features used as tracers in HST images show that at most there is only a small height difference, no larger than ∼0.5-1 scale heights, between the slow (∼100 m s⁻¹) and fast (∼150 m s⁻¹) moving features. This suggests that speed variability at 6°N is not dominated by vertical wind shears but instead we propose that Rossby wave activity is the responsible for the zonal variability. Removing this variability, we find that Jupiter’s equatorial jet is actually symmetric relative to equator with two peaks of ∼140-150 m s⁻¹ located at latitudes 6°N and 6°S and at a similar pressure level. We also study the local dynamics of particular equatorial features such as several dark projections associated with 5 μm hot spots and a large, long-lived feature called the White Spot (WS) located at 6°S. Convergent flow at the dark projections appears to be a characteristic which depends on the particular morphology and has only been detected in some cases. The internal flow field in the White Spot indicates that it is a weakly rotating quasi-equatorial anticyclone relative to the ambient meridionally sheared flow.     

Atmospheric circulations of terrestrial planets orbiting low-mass stars

Circulations and habitable zones of planets orbiting low-mass stars are investigated. Many of these planets are expected to rotate synchronously relative to their parent stars, thereby raising questions about their surface temperature distributions and habitability. We use a global circulation model to study idealized, synchronously rotating (tidally locked) planets of various rotation periods, with surfaces of all land or all water, but with an Earth-like atmosphere and solar insolation. The dry planets exhibit wide variations in surface temperature: >80 °C on the dayside to <−110 °C on the nightside for the 240-h rotator, for example. The water-covered aquaplanets are warmer and exhibit narrower ranges of surface temperatures, e.g., ∼40 °C to >−60 °C for the 240-h orbiter. They also have a larger habitable area, defined here as the region where average surface temperatures are between 0 °C and 50 °C. This concept has little relevance for either dry or aquaplanets, but might become relevant on a planet with both land area and oceans.The circulations on these tidally locked planets exhibit systematic changes as the rotation period is varied. However, they also reveal abrupt transitions between two different circulation regimes and multiple equilibria. For the dry planet, the transition occurs between a 4-day and a 5-day period, while for the aquaplanet, it occurs between a 3-day and a 4-day period. For both dry and aqua planets, this transition occurs when the Rossby deformation radius exceeds half the planetary radius. Further investigation on the dry planet reveals that multiple equilibria exist between 100- and 221-h periods. These multiple equilibria may be relevant for real planets within the habitable zones of late K and M stars, because these planets are expected to have rotation periods between 8 and 100 Earth days.     

Estimates of gravity wave drag on Mars: Indication of a possible lower thermospheric wind reversal

Spectral gravity wave parameterization suitable for planetary thermospheres applied to wind and temperature from Mars Climate Database reveals enormously strong drag incompatible with the wind distribution. It points out to a possible wind reversal in the 110-140 km layer similar to the one in the Earth’s lower thermosphere.     

Solar radiation pressure on (99942) Apophis

Near-Earth asteroid (99942) Apophis currently resides among the top positions on the list of objects with small, yet non-zero impact probability with the Earth. For that reason an unusual observational and theoretical effort has been dedicated to precisely characterize its future orbit. Here we discuss orbital perturbation of Apophis due to incident and reflected solar radiation pressure (SRP). We both revisit recent analytical estimate of the SRP effects for this body and also formulate a numerical approach allowing us to compute the SRP orbital perturbation under general assumptions. Contrary to some previous results, we show that SRP has a much smaller effect on the Apophis trajectory than does the thermal re-radiation force which produces the Yarkovsky effect. When the Yarkovsky effect becomes constrained enough in the future, our approach may be used to improve the orbit determination for this asteroid.     

Saturn’s zonal wind profile in 2004-2009 from Cassini ISS images and its long-term variability

Five years of Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem images, from 2004 to 2009, are analyzed in this work to retrieve global zonal wind profiles of Saturn’s northern and southern hemispheres in the methane absorbing bands at 890 and 727 nm and in their respective adjacent continuum wavelengths of 939 and 752 nm. A complete view of Saturn’s global circulation, including the equator, at two pressure levels, in the tropopause (60 mbar to 250 mbar with the MT filters) and in the upper troposphere (from ∼350 mbar to ∼500 mbar with the CB filter set), is presented. Both zonal wind profiles (available at the Supplementary Material Section), show the same structure but with significant differences in the peak of the eastward jets and the equatorial region, including a region of positive vertical shear symmetrically located around the equator between the 10° < |φ_c| < 25° where zonal velocities close to the tropopause are higher than at 500 mbar. A comparison of previously published zonal wind sets obtained by Voyager 1 and 2 (1980-1981), Hubble Space Telescope, and ground-based telescopes (1990-2004) with the present Cassini profiles (2004-2009) covering a full Saturn year shows that the shape of the zonal wind profile and intensity of the jets has remained almost unchanged except at the equator, despite the seasonal insolation cycle and the variability of Saturn’s emitted power. The major wind changes occurred at equatorial latitudes, perhaps following the Great White Spot eruption in 1990. It is not evident from our study if the seasonal insolation cycle and its associated ring shadowing influence the equatorial circulation at cloud level.     

Rebuttal to the comment by Malhotra and Strom on “Constraints on the source of lunar cataclysm impactors”

?uk et al. (?uk, M. Gladman, B.J., Stewart, S.T. [2010]. Icarus 207 590-594) concluded that the the lunar cataclysm (late heavy bombardment) was recorded in lunar Imbrian era craters, and that their size distribution is different from that of main belt asteroids (which may have been the dominant pre-Imbrian impactors). This result would likely preclude the asteroid belt as the direct source of lunar cataclysm impactors. Malhotra and Strom (Malhotra, R., Strom, R.G. [2011]. Icarus) maintain that the lunar impactor population in the Imbrian era was the same as in Nectarian and pre-Nectarian periods, and this population had a size distribution identical to that of main belt asteroids. In support of this claim, they present an Imbrian size distribution made from two data sets published by Wilhelms et al. (Wilhelms, D.E., Oberbeck, V.R., Aggarwal, H.R. [1978]. Proc. Lunar Sci. Conf. 9, 3735-3762). However, these two data sets cannot be simply combined as they represent areas of different ages and therefore crater densities. Malhotra and Strom (Malhotra, R., Strom, R.G. [2011]. Icarus) differ with the main conclusion of Wilhelms et al. (Wilhelms, D.E., Oberbeck, V.R., Aggarwal, H.R. [1978]. Proc. Lunar Sci. Conf. 9, 3735-3762) that the Nectarian and Imbrian crater size distributions were different. We conclude that the available data indicate that the lunar Imbrian-era impactors had a different size distribution from the older ones, with the Imbrian impactor distribution being significantly richer in small impactors than that of older lunar impactors or current main-belt asteroids.     

Core-collapse supernovae and the Younger Dryas/terminal Rancholabrean extinctions

Early predictions that some supernovae release large quantities of prompt high energy photons are now corroborated by optical identification of core-collapse supernovae associated with extragalactic GRBS (beamed γ-ray bursts) and XRFS (beamed or un-beamed X-ray flashes). Given the in-galaxy supernova frequency and GRB and XRF recurrence statistics, significant Earth-incident events during the past several million years very likely occurred and nearby events should have affected the Earth and other planetary atmospheres, including terrestrial surface solar UV, the Earth’s climate, and its ecology. The Younger Dryas Stadial (∼12,900 to 11,550 calendar yr BP) began with sharply cooler temperatures in the Earth’s northern hemisphere, regional drought, paleoecological evidence compatible with increased UV, and abrupt increases in cosmogenic ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be in ice and marine cores and tree rings. In North America, stratigraphic and faunal sequences indicate that a major pulse of mammalian extinctions (at least 23-31 genera) began very close to 12,830 calendar yr BP and was sudden: deposits one century younger are devoid of diverse extinct fauna remains. A 10 s beamed GRB within 2 kpc of the Earth delivers 100 kJ m⁻² fluence to the Earth’s atmosphere, where it causes spallation and catalytic reactions depleting 35-50% O³, and producing excess NO_x species (which favor cooling, drought, and surface fertility), ¹⁴C, and ¹⁰Be. An un-beamed, 10⁵⁰ erg hard photon impulse at ∼250 pc produces similar terrestrial atmospheric effects. A well-characterized massive star supernova, the unusually close Vela event (d = 250 ± 30 pc; total energy of 1-2 × 10⁵¹ erg; age constrained from remnant nebula shock velocities considerations at 13,000-16,000 yr and from the pulsar characteristic age at ∼11,400 yr) may have initiated the Younger Dryas climate change, and caused the extinction of the terminal Rancholabrean fauna.     

CMT data inversion using a Bayesian information criterion to estimate seismogenic stress fields

We developed an inversion method to estimate the stress fields related to earthquake generation (seismogenic stress fields) from the centroid moment tensors (CMT) of seismic events by using Akaike's Bayesian information criterion (ABIC). On the idea that the occurrence of an earthquake releases some part of the seismogenic stress field around its hypocentre, we define the CMT of a seismic event by a weighted volume integral of the true but unknown seismogenic stress field. Representing each component of the seismogenic stress field by the superposition of a finite number of 3-D basis functions (tri-cubic B-splines), we obtain a set of linear observation equations to be solved for the expansion coefficients (model parameters). We introduce prior constraint on the roughness of the seismogenic stress field and combine it with observed data to construct a Bayesian model with hierarchic, highly flexible structure controlled by hyper-parameters. The optimum values of the hyper-parameters are objectively determined form observed data by using ABIC. Given the optimum values of the hyper-parameters, we can obtain the best estimates of model parameters by using a maximum likelihood algorithm. We tested the validity of the inversion method through numerical experiments on two synthetic CMT data sets, assuming the distribution of fault orientations to be aligned with the maximum shear stress plane in one case and to be random in the other case. Then we applied the inversion method to actual CMT data in northeast Japan, and obtained the pattern of the seismogenic stress field consistent with geophysical and geological observations.     

Numerical modelling of rise and fall of a dense layer in salt diapirs

Numerical models are used to study the entrainment of a dense anhydrite layer by a diapir. The anhydrite layer is initially horizontally embedded within a viscous salt layer. The diapir is down-built by aggradation of non-Newtonian sediments ( n = 4, constant temperature) placed on the top of the salt layer. Several parameters (sedimentation rate, salt viscosity, perturbation width and stratigraphic position of the anhydrite layer) are studied systematically to understand their role in governing the entrainment of the anhydrite layer. High sedimentation rates during the early stages of the diapir evolution bury the initial perturbation and, thus, no diapir forms. The anhydrite layer sinks within the buried salt layer. For the same sedimentation rate, increasing viscosity of the salt layer decreases the rise rate of the diapir and reduces the amount (volume) of the anhydrite layer transported into the diapir. Model results show that viscous salt is capable of carrying separate blocks of the anhydrite layer to relatively higher stratigraphic levels. Varying the width of the initial perturbation (in our calculations 400–800 m), from which a diapir triggers, shows that wider diapirs can more easily entrain an embedded anhydrite layer than the narrower diapirs. The anhydrite layer is entrained as long as rise rate of the diapir exceeds the descent rate of the denser anhydrite layer. We conclude that the four parameters mentioned above govern the ability of a salt diapir to entrain an embedded dense layer. However, the model results show that the entrained blocks inevitably sink back if the rise rate of the diapir is less than the rate of descent of the anhydrite layer or the diapir is permanently covered by a stiff overburden in case of high sedimentation rates.