CO2浓度增加背景下季风区大气辐射加热响应的差异

大气CO2浓度增加,大气辐射平衡调整,将影响到大气的辐射加热,对季风环流的产生影响.CMIP6结果显示,大气CO2浓度增加,可减弱季风区主雨季对流层高,低层的辐射加热,加强对流层中层的辐射加热.各季风区加热响应的峰值层次不同:亚洲季风区平均层次最高(500-775 hPa),北非,南美,澳洲季风区次之(550-600 hPa),北美(600hPa)和南非季风区(600-775 hPa)较低.各季风区水云的垂直分布及其长波辐射效应的变化是形成峰值层次差异的主因.     

毫米波雷达云回波的自动分类技术研究

毫米波雷达在云探测方面比厘米波天气雷达和激光雷达具有显著优势,可获得更多的云粒子信息,是研究云特性的主要遥感探测设备。为了开展对毫米波雷达探测的云回波进行自动分类的研究,利用161次云回波的个例数据,统计得到了卷云、高层云、高积云、层云、层积云和积云6类云型的特征量和其他参量的数值范围,利用分级的多参数阈值判别方法,达到了自动分类的目标,通过与人工分类的初步验证,两种分类结果的一致性达到84%,其中,层云和积云的识别一致较低的原因在于样本数据有限,仅有6次层云和8次积云的个例样本数据。通过更多样本的处理,提取的特征参量更可靠,自动分类的准确率会得到提高,以便将基于毫米波雷达的云分类技术应用于将来的云观测自动化业务。      

On the linkage between changes in cloud cover and precipitation extremes over Central India

In this study, linkage between changing characteristics of precipitation extremes and cloud covers over Central India is explored during summer monsoon period using Satellite data (1998–2015). This is a first attempt to relate the changes in cloud cover to the changes in precipitation extremes. Non-rainy cirrus clouds are excluded from this study. Results show that heavy rainfall (≥ 60 mm/day) is associated with cold cloud tops (Tb≤220 K) while moderate rainfall (<60 mm/day and ≥20 mm) occurs mostly with middle clouds (Tb>220 K and ≤245 K). Low level clouds (Tb> 245 K) are responsible for light rainfall (<20 mm/day). Increases in top 20%, 10%, 5% and 1% heavy precipitation relate well with the increases in very deep convective, deep convective and convective cloud cover. Among these relations, increase in top 5% heavy precipitation relates best with increase in very deep convective cloud cover. Decrease in bottom 30% low precipitation relates with decrease in low level cloud cover. The results reported in this study fit into the framework of how weather extremes respond to climate change.     

基于梯度分析法的长江上游水库群供水-发电-环境互馈关系解析

长江上游水资源耦合系统优化调控涉及供水、发电和生态需水等相互竞争、不可公度的调控目标。其供水-发电-环境互馈协变机制难以数学解析和刻画，多维目标效益均衡优化调控难以实施。为此，以多目标优化、运筹学理论及方法为基础，提出了基于梯度分析法的供水-发电-环境两两互馈关系研究方法。通过多目标约束优化方法求解长江上游水库群联合优化调度在供水-发电-环境目标空间的最优解集，并进行插值构造了供水-发电-环境互馈关系多维空间曲面，以此为基础，采用一阶差分近似求解供水对环境和发电对环境偏导函数值，以量化环境对供水变化和发电变化响应的梯度，进而解析环境-供水和环境-发电间互馈协变关系。该方法为水库群优化调度多目标互馈关系研究提供了一种新的思路。     

Estimation of flow enhancement in the Kinneret watershed due to cloud seeding

A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×10⁶ m ³/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.     

云、雨水酸度和离子浓度与其微物理参数的关系

本文1987年5-6月和1989年5-6月庐山地区的实测资料,分析了云、雨水酸度和离子浓度与其微物理量间的关系。结果表明,云、雨滴大小、含水量、谱宽等微物理量的演变直接影响着其酸度和离子浓度。     

暴雨过程中积云对流反馈作用的诊断研究

根据各收支方程讨论，概述了各研究者采用直接和间接的方法，计算得出长江流域梅雨期暴雨过程中各源汇的空间分布特征。虽然个例，地区和资料不同，其结果各有差异，易比较，但次网格尺度运动对不尺度环境场的反馈作用均非常显著，因而在设计暴雨预报的数值模式时，参数化方案是必不可少的。     

青藏高原地区云对地面有效辐射的影响：Ⅱ.强迫作用

本文利用１９８２年８月－１９８３年７月青藏高原地面热源观测试验资料，讨论了与云对地面有效辐射强迫作用有关的参数的计算问题，并对这些参数的计算结果进行了分析。结果表明：晴空、全云条件下的地面有效辐射和云对地面有效辐射强迫作用的年平均日变化振幅有明显的地域差异；云对地面有效辐射的强迫作用春夏大，秋冬小，甘孜、拉萨、那曲和改则４站平均的年平均值为－２７．２Ｗ／ｍ＾２。?     

Research Status and Progress of Balloon-borne Cloud and Precipitation Particles Probe

The accurate observation of the microphysical structure of cloud and precipitation plays an important role in understanding the formation of clouds and precipitation. In-situ measurement using measuring instruments carried by meteorological balloons is an effective way to obtain the microphysical properties of cloud and precipitation particles, which is a supplementary means for aircraft to observe cloud and precipitation particles. This observation method plays a more and more important role in in-situ measurement. According to the difference of the working principle of the existing balloon-borne cloud and precipitation particles probes, the detectors can be divided into particle impact-sampling sensors, particle imaging sensors, light-scattering sensors, light intensity attenuation sensors and charge measurement sensors. The working principles, key technologies and main advantages and disadvantages of typical instruments were summarized, and their applications to detailed cloud structure acquisition, cloud remote sensing method establishment, cloud and precipitation physical process research and parameterization, and scientific observation of thunderstorm clouds were briefly introduced. Finally, the development trend of balloon-borne cloud precipitation particle detectors was prospected, which will provide reference for related technical research and equipment development.     

Cloud tracking using satellite data for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events in the Mediterranean area

The use of cloud tracking techniques and storm identification procedures is proposed in this paper with the aim of predicting the evolution of cloud entities associated with the highest rainfall probability within a given meteorological scenario. Suitable algorithms for this kind of analysis are based on the processing of digital images in the thermal infrared (IR) band from geostationary satellites: a selection of such algorithms is described in some detail together with a few real case applications. Three heavy rainfall events have been selected for this purpose with reference to the extreme meteorological situation observed during Fall 1992 and 1993 over the Mediterranean area. A window from 30 to 60 °N and from 20 °W to 30 °E has been identified for the analysis of data from the radiometer on board the ESA Meteosat platform. In conclusion, the suitability of cloud tracking techniques for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events is discussed provided that the former are associated with proper modeling of small scale rainfall distribution.