Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.     

引水工程秦巴段隧洞地应力模拟及工程地质问题

利用Ansys有限元软件对三峡引水工程秦巴段线路不同深度、不同截面形态隧洞围岩的应力重分布情况进行模拟计算,得到圆形隧洞、城门形隧洞和马蹄形隧洞围岩的应力数值和等值线图.利用库仑一纳维尔强度准则,对花岗岩区及灰岩区隧洞围岩的剪切破坏进行分析;利用三种岩爆应力判别指标,对岩爆进行初步预测;进而对不同深度、不同截面形态的隧洞围岩的稳定性进行分析;最后对引水工程隧洞设计中截面形态的选择给出了初步建议.     

Influence of Structural Non-Stationarity of Surface Roughness on Morphological Characterization and Mechanical Deformation of Rock Joints

Summary Structural non-stationarity of surface roughness affects accurate morphological characterization as well as mechanical behaviour of rock joints at the laboratory scale using samples with a size below the stationarity threshold. In this paper, the effect of structural non-stationarity of surface roughness is investigated by studying the scale dependence of surface roughness and mechanical behaviour of rock joints. The results show that the structural non-stationarity mainly affects the accurate characterization of the surface roughness of the fracture samples. It also controls the amount and location of the contact areas during shear tests, which in turn affects the mechanical properties and asperity degradation of the samples. It is concluded that for accurate determination of the morphological and mechanical properties of rock joints at laboratory and field scales, samples with size equal to or larger than the stationarity threshold are required. Author’s address: Nader Fardin, Rock Mechanics Group, Department of Mining Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tehran, P.O. Box: 11365/4563, Tehran, Iran     

饱和软黏土动力学特性循环扭剪试验研究

以饱和软黏土的循环扭剪试验研究为基础,阐明不固结不排水条件下饱和软黏土的动力学特性。在循环扭剪和循环三轴两种不同试验应力状态下,通过研究不同围压和不同静、动应力组合下饱和软黏土的应力等效破坏关系和应变等效破坏关系,提出在循环荷载作用下饱和软黏土的循环破坏同样遵循Mises屈服准则,且在Mises屈服准则下,饱和软黏土的循环强度趋于不变量。循环破坏的过程可以等效为一种拟静力弹塑性循环蠕变,建立了饱和软黏土循环累积变形随静荷载、循环荷载以及循环破坏振次之间的关系式。上述结论分别从应力和变形两个方面阐述饱和软黏土的动力学特性,与试验应力状态和围压无关,可以推广到一般应力状态下。     

饱和粉砂不稳定性的试验研究

通过对净砂和级配良好粉砂(含10 %粉土)进行一系列三轴固结不排水试验（CU）,研究了粉土、孔隙比和围压对饱和粉砂不稳定性的影响。试验结果表明,净砂与粉砂在不排水剪切条件下均会出现应变软化现象（即不稳定性）。同一围压下脆性指数(IB)随孔隙比增加,但不稳定线的应力比随孔隙比增加而减小。引用等效粒间孔隙比(ege)后,净砂和粉砂在ege-ln p?平面上拥有基本相同的临界状态线。在临界状态理论及等效粒间孔隙比的基础上,提出在同一修正状态参数(?ge)下净砂和级配良好粉砂有相似的不稳定性。     

Predictability of Interannual Variability in the Kuroshio Transport South of Japan Based on Wind Stress Data over the North Pacific

It is expected that a roughly two-year forecast of the Kuroshio transport variation can be made from a past record of wind stress data over the ocean, since it takes nearly ten years for the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave to traverse the entire basin in the midlatitude North Pacific (∼30°N). We therefore investigated the predictability using an ocean general circulation model driven by the wind stress data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. Referring to a hindcast experiment as the control run, we carried out fifteen forecast experiments, the initial conditions of which are taken from the hindcast experiment at intervals of two years during the period from the end of 1969 to the end of 1997. Each of the forecast experiments is driven only by wind stress in the year preceding each experiment. The forecasted Kuroshio transport anomaly south of Japan agrees better with the hindcasted one during the first two years of the forecast in most cases. In some cases, however, significant disagreements occur, most of which are likely due to larger unpredictable variations caused by wind stress anomalies near Japan. At the end of forecast year 2, the anomaly correlation coefficient is about 0.7, and rms of the forecast error is smaller than rms of the hindcasted anomaly. These results indicate that the prediction of the interannual variability in the Kuroshio transport could be made two years in advance at a statistically significant level. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

一种计算台风风场的方法

揭示Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡风场模式和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ风场模式之间的联系，并设计了一种台风风场分布模式，它的风速分布曲线落在Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ和Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡两个风场模式的风速分布曲线之间，具有一个既优于Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ又优于Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡的风速衰减速率，因此它同时克服了Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡模式计算风速偏小和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式计算风速偏大的缺点，以一种比较合理的变化趋势向远方衰减，成为一个比较切合实际的台风风场分布模式。同时，文中提出的移行台风风场计算方法对宫崎正卫、上野武夫和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式都有一定的改进。     

渤海中南部悬浮物海洋调查资料分析

对于悬浮物 (SPM)的研究目前已引起诸多学者关注。作者利用 1998和 1999年的中德合作海洋调查所获得的资料进行分析。主要进行三个方面的工作 :研究悬浮物与透明度的关系 ;研究悬浮物与浊度的关系 ;估计海底剪切速度。并为研究悬浮物输运提供资料和作前期研究     

江苏大丰潮滩潮流边界层特征研究

2003年7月中小潮期间使用MIDAS-400用户化数据采集系统在江苏大丰潮滩上进行了垂向多层位同步的流速和悬沙浓度观测。根据观测资料研究了潮流作用下的潮滩底部边界层过程,结果表明,观测地点的潮汐不对称现象十分明显,落潮流速、历时和输水输沙量皆明显大于涨潮;在潮周期内的多数时间里流速剖面符合对数分布,但在风力较强、水流快速增加和流速缓慢的情况下,流速剖面常偏离对数分布;悬沙颗粒垂向混合均匀,悬沙浓度剖面符合Rouse公式;落潮时的底部切应力和摩阻流速明显大于涨潮,摩阻流速与各水层流速通常有较好的线性关系;滩面糙度主要与沙纹形态和推移质运动强度有关,它与摩阻流速存在密切关系;悬沙浓度具有明显的减阻效应,受其影响,摩阻流速和底部切应力分别减小了28%~41%和40%~62%。     

湛江港外海水富营养化水平与浮游植物多样性

利用2001年12月在湛江港外海现场调查的资料,分析研究了湛江港外海水营养化水平及其与浮游植物多样性的关系。结果表明:湛江港外海水营养状态指数由北向南、由湾口向湾外递减;浮游植物多样性指数和均匀度则是由北向南增加,东南部水质较好,东北部水质较差;将营养盐含量及营养状态水平与浮游植物多样性指数和均匀度利用最小二乘法进行相关性,相关性不显著,另外,调查期间氮磷比例均失去平衡,这可能是影响该海域浮游植物量与营养盐水平之间关系的原因。