浑善达克沙地风蚀坑形态特征及其影响因素

风蚀坑是沙质草原固定沙地活化的主要表现形式,其持续活化的结果将导致沙漠化扩展和生态环境恶化。采用实地测量方法,测定了129个风蚀坑走向、长度、宽度等形态指标。研究表明：① 研究区风蚀坑形态特征受NW、SW和W 3个风向的综合影响;② 风蚀坑走向呈WNW-ESE（112.5°）走向,有74.5%的风蚀坑走向（100°~120°）与SW风垂直,和W风呈20°左右的夹角,并影响风蚀坑的几何形状特征;③ 按风蚀坑长宽比值所反映的几何形状,可划分为卵圆形、长条形、狭长形和带形风蚀坑;依风蚀坑的地表形态特征,可划分为碟形、梯形、沟谷形、杯形和坡形5种风蚀坑。     

基于特定因子的河南省干热风客观预报方法

利用2000—2014年5月1日到6月10日河南省121个气象观测站点的逐日观测数据、欧洲中心模式预报资料,对河南省干热风天气进行分析,总结了干热风天气形势分类模型,同时利用多元回归法建立了河南省干热风天气的客观预报方法。分析结果得出:河南省干热风天气发生主要形势为西北气流型、高压脊型和纬向环流型3类;通过多元回归分析筛选出日最高温度预报因子为前一日最高气温、当日最低气温、08:00气温、EC850hPa 24h温度预报,相对湿度预报因子为EC850hPa 24h相对湿度预报、前一日14:00相对湿度、当日08:00露点温度,风速预报因子为EC细网格过去3h10m阵风预报,建立温度、湿度和风速3要素的预报方程;利用预报方程对2014年预报时段的天气进行检验,结果表明,对于轻干热风预报的TS评分为62%,重干热风预报的TS评分为64%。     

基于A-Train卫星编队资料的热带气旋强度估算

准确估算热带气旋(TC)强度,对于预测TC发展、减少财产损失具有重要的意义。前人将TC看作满足静力平衡和梯度风平衡的轴对称涡旋系统,基于云顶高度、云顶温度、海表面气压等物理量建立了TC强度估算模型,该模型未考虑环境垂直风切变对TC强度的影响。本文提出一种修正模型,通过统计拟合手段将垂直风切变加入原模型中。从2006—2015年的Cloud Sat资料中筛选出穿心个例共63个。针对云雷达(CPR)数据特点,提出根据反射率因子的垂直分布确定眼墙和外围边界位置的方法。分别用原模型与修正模型对这63个TC个例进行强度估算。与最佳路径数据相比,原模型结果总体偏大,尤其对风切变较大、强度较小的个例估算效果不佳。修正模型对于风切变大于5 m·s~(-1)的个例误差明显减小,平均绝对误差MAE、均方根误差RMSE和平均绝对误差百分比MAPE分别从5.8 m·s~(-1)、7.7 m·s~(-1)和19.5%变为3.5 m·s~(-1)、4.9 m·s~(-1)和11.5%。在一定强度范围内,修正模型估算效果随着强度的增强而提升。修正模型对于成熟阶段的个例效果更好,北半球的估算精度高于南半球,纬度越高,估算误差越小。试验结果表明,用该修正模型估算TC强度是可行的,可以对现有的技术进行辅助和补充。     

Along-Channel Winds in Howe Sound: Climatological Analysis and Case Studies

This paper examines along-channel winds within Howe Sound, British Columbia, Canada, that occur from both the interior plateau out toward the coast as outflows and from the coast inland as inflows. First, the relationships between along-channel winds and pressure, temperature, and humidity are explored in Howe Sound–Cheakamus Valley. The pressure gradients between Pam Rocks and Squamish and Pam Rocks and Pemberton have the strongest correlations with outflow strength and that between Pam Rocks and Squamish has the strongest correlation with inflow strength. Outflows (inflows) have lower (higher) temperatures and dew point temperatures, except for the inflows in summer, which have lower dewpoint temperatures than the overall mean. Second, two case studies of outflow events are presented and described during the period of intensive observations prior to and during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics. The January 2010 outflow event is caused by a zone of strong across-barrier mean sea level pressure gradient. The pressure gradient is formed behind an Arctic front that moved southward across Howe Sound. The February 2010 outflow event is caused by an approaching sea level low pressure centre from the Pacific that formed a northeast–southwest mean sea level pressure gradient across southern British Columbia. In the January case, the outflow layer is about 1.5?km deep, while it is shallower in the February case. Only the January outflow case exhibits hydraulic behaviour.     

基于GSI的华南地区对流尺度快速循环同化预报试验

针对对流尺度快速循环同化系统多次循环同化带来的预报效果改进和资料应用问题,利用GSI同化技术和WRFARW区域模式,设计了华南地区对流尺度快速循环同化方案,对2016年4月17一18日华南地区的飑线天气强降水过程进行模拟试验,分析不同循环同化方案和雷达径向风资料同化对雷达回波、相对湿度、降水量级等的预报效果,以期提高华南地区飑线强降水过程预报技巧。检验结果表明:尽管只同化常规资料对预报效果的改进有局限性,但是多次循环同化对于模式预报的降水有一定改善作用;同时同化雷达径向风资料与常规资料对湿度和降水等模拟技巧均有所提高,大雨以上量级的ETS评分改进尤为明显;尽管模式模拟降水峰值小于真实观测值,但同化雷达径向风资料有效改善了飑线最强时段内的垂直上升速度,使得强降水发生时间和强度更接近真实观测。     

京津冀地区冬半年污染传输特征及传输指数的改进

文章通过轨迹聚类、潜在源区分析等方法对京津冀地区冬半年污染物传输特征进行了分析,在此基础上对传输指数的构建方法进行了改进,并结合一次重污染天气过程分析了其作用。结果表明,对于北京、天津和石家庄,其重污染轨迹出现概率从高到低均为偏南路径、偏西路径、偏东路径和西北路径;在近地面高度上,西南和东南风的增强在大多时候成为北京的污染物传输通道,其中东南方向的污染物来源主要集中在大气低层;改进后的传输指数能够更好地反映外来传输作用对本地污染物浓度的影响,京津冀及周边地区的传输作用对北京、天津和石家庄等大城市的污染物浓度影响较明显,其中城郊及周边地区的近距离传输影响最为显著;合理应用传输指数可以对重污染天气的成因进行初步判断。     

半透明云风矢量高度算法中代表运动像元的使用

半透明云风矢量高度指定是卫星风矢量算法的重要部分,需要使用来自半透明云体的辐射和云下背景辐射两个变量。为了更精确地获得来自半透明云体的辐射,采用像元对追踪相关系数的贡献和红外亮温两个变量进行统计分析,将追踪图像块中的像元分为3个部分:小贡献像元、暖区段大贡献像元和冷区段大贡献像元;对暖区段、冷区段内大贡献像元的特征进行考察表明,冷区段的大贡献像元更能代表追踪图像块运动,称为代表运动像元。选择代表运动像元参与计算来自半透明云体的辐射,对半透明云风矢量高度指定算法进行改进,在该算法中分别使用和不使用代表运动像元,计算FY-2气象卫星风矢量,将结果与欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）分析场进行对比表明,在半透明云高度指定算法中使用代表运动像元,FY-2气象卫星风矢量误差明显降低。     

Adjustment of Wind Waves to Sudden Changes of Wind Speed

An experiment was conducted in a small wind-wave facility at the Ocean Engineering Laboratory, California, to address the following question: when the wind speed changes rapidly, how quickly and in what manner do the short wind waves respond? To answer this question we have produced a very rapid change in wind speed between U _low (4.6 m s^?1) and U _high (7.1 m s^?1). Water surface elevation and air turbulence were monitored up to a fetch of 5.5 m. The cycle of increasing and decreasing wind speed was repeated 20 times to assure statistical accuracy in the measurement by taking an ensemble mean. In this way, we were able to study in detail the processes by which the young laboratory wind waves adjust to wind speed perturbations. We found that the wind-wave response occurs over two time scales determined by local equilibrium adjustment and fetch adjustment, Δt ₁/T = O(10) and Δt ₂/T = O(100), respectively, in the current tank. The steady state is characterized by a constant non-dimensional wave height (H/gT ² or equivalently, the wave steepness for linear gravity waves) depending on wind speed. This equilibrium state was found in our non-steady experiments to apply at all fetches, even during the long transition to steady state, but only after a short initial relaxation Δt ₁/T of O(10) following a sudden change in wind speed. The complete transition to the new steady state takes much longer, Δt ₂/T of O(100) at the largest fetch, during which time energy propagates over the entire fetch along the rays (dx/dt = c _g) and grows under the influence of wind pumping. At the same time, frequency downshifts. Although the current study is limited in scale variations, we believe that the suggestion that the two adjustment time scales are related to local equilibrium adjustment and fetch adjustment is also applicable to the ocean.     

浙闽沿海和台湾海峡海域冬季大风风速计算方法探讨

本文利用东海区海陆大风对比试验结果及26艘船只两个月的海上航测实况资料，通过对各种风速进行海陆比值分析、差值分析和测站间对比分析。论证了据陆上大风推算该海区大风风速计算式的可靠性，从而为实时、定量地预报海区大风提供了1种方法．     

HDPE深水网箱抗风浪流性能的海区验证试验

对HDPE深水网箱2000～2004年间的抗风浪流性能进行了海区验证试验.通过对HDPE深水网箱扶栏、框架、网具以及固泊系统受损率的统计,根据扶栏、框架、网具以及固泊系统在整个深水网系统中的重要程度,分别给予一定的权重统计出深水网箱的整体受损率,能比较客观地反映深水网箱的抗风浪流性能.海区验证试验结果表明,HDPE深水网箱抗风力达35 m/s、抗浪高6 m、抗流速1.0 m/s,与其设计参数基本相同.同时,为了增加HDPE深水网箱的抗风浪流性能,建议扶手管从110 mm改为125 mm、主浮管从250 mm改为300 mm、扶栏高度从1 m降低为0.8 m或0.6 m.风力主要影响扶栏系统,流速主要影响网具系统,而波浪对HDPE圆形浮式深水网箱的框架、网具、固泊系统以及网箱整体结构均有明显影响.